What's new
By:
USCHO Fan Forum

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

  • The USCHO Fan Forum has migrated to a new plaform, xenForo. Most of the function of the forum should work in familiar ways. Please note that you can switch between light and dark modes by clicking on the gear icon in the upper right of the main menu bar. We are hoping that this new platform will prove to be faster and more reliable. Please feel free to explore its features.

The definitive tournament speculation thread

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

At this point if Castleton wins either of the remaining two games, how can they be left out of the tournament? If anyone is in, its them.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Matt Rennell said:
........paging Josh Carey
Click to expand...

This week I will actually have a column. I'm editing right now and am about to file to D3WH to be posted tonight. Hopefully I'll get to do another run through later this week after we see the NCAA Rankings. Once again, I have several disagreements with Matt and actually seem to be contradicting myself in several ways. The only other hint I'll give you is that Hammer and joecct will feel very similarly about my projections.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Josh Carey said:
This week I will actually have a column. I'm editing right now and am about to file to D3WH to be posted tonight. Hopefully I'll get to do another run through later this week after we see the NCAA Rankings. Once again, I have several disagreements with Matt and actually seem to be contradicting myself in several ways. The only other hint I'll give you is that Hammer and joecct will feel very similarly about my projections.
Click to expand...

My national rankings will be up here in a couple of minutes and my west rankings will be filed with d3wh later this afternoon - data is run, but my "expert" analysis has yet to be written. Lots of numbers available for our speculation while we wait for the results of the first non-secret smoke filled phone call.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

The trouble with Salem State right now is they are done with the TUC part of the regular season schedule. Their last three games that count are against non TUC teams that may drag their SoS below the CareyTUC threshold. On the other hand Fitchburg, which is now below CTUC, has to play Plymouth State and UMD, which should raise their SoS.

I will be happy as long as a MASCAC team is under consideration for more than 2 minutes on Selection Sunday.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

joecct said:
The trouble with Salem State right now is they are done with the TUC part of the regular season schedule. Their last three games that count are against non TUC teams that may drag their SoS below the CareyTUC threshold. On the other hand Fitchburg, which is now below CTUC, has to play Plymouth State and UMD, which should raise their SoS.

I will be happy as long as a MASCAC team is under consideration for more than 2 minutes on Selection Sunday.
Click to expand...

You get your chance next year. ;)
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

joecct said:
That's not consideration, that's an AQ. Consideration will be who gets the Pool C slots.
Click to expand...
Poll C eligibles that will be considered will* have between 8-12 losses....(*unless a #1 seed is upset)
 
Last edited:
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Matt Rennell said:
Here is my projection for how the rankings will look and a stab as to what the NCAA field will look like...

East
1- Oswego
2- Elmira
3- Utica
4- Plattsburgh
5- Norwich
6- Geneseo
7- Hobart
8- Neumann
9- Manhattanville
10- Castleton
11- Salem State
12- Bowdoin
13- Plymouth State
14- Morrisville
15- Hamilton

West
1- St. Norbert
2- Wis. Superior
3- Hamline
4- Wis. Eau Claire
5- Wis. Stout
6- Adrian
7- Wis. Stevens Point
Click to expand...

Above was my projection, below is the actual rankings.

For the top 12 the committee and I differ in only a couple areas. They for whatever reason ranked Norwich over Plattsburgh, which makes zero sense. They also view Geneseo and Castleton differently then I, but the rest of the general order I nailed. As far as 13-15, those spots are very difficult to predict because historically those spots have been used more to boost the criteria for the higher ranked teams in the region for a pool C bid then the legitimately rank the teams. So I blame politics on that.

East
1- Oswego
2- Elmira
3- Utica
4- Norwich
5- Plattsburgh
6- Hobart
7- Castleton
8- Neumann
9- Geneseo
10- Manhattanville
11- Salem State
12- Bowdoin
13- Williams
14- Middlebury
15- Fitchburg State

For the west, I will not waste my words on this joke. The committee is up to something, but I am not exactly sure what. They certainly are not looking at the same criteria everyone else is.

If it was not going to be an 8/3 split before, it certainly looks like it is going to be now and the west will have no one to blame but themselves.

West
1- St. Norbert
2- Adrian
3- Hamline
4- Wis. Stout
5- Wis. Eau Claire
6- St. Thomas
7- MSOE
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Matt Rennell said:
Above was my projection, below is the actual rankings.

For the top 12 the committee and I differ in only a couple areas. They for whatever reason ranked Norwich over Plattsburgh, which makes zero sense. They also view Geneseo and Castleton differently then I, but the rest of the general order I nailed. As far as 13-15, those spots are very difficult to predict because historically those spots have been used more to boost the criteria for the higher ranked teams in the region for a pool C bid then the legitimately rank the teams. So I blame politics on that.

East
1- Oswego
2- Elmira
3- Utica
4- Norwich
5- Plattsburgh
6- Hobart
7- Castleton
8- Neumann
9- Geneseo
10- Manhattanville
11- Salem State
12- Bowdoin
13- Williams
14- Middlebury
15- Fitchburg State

For the west, I will not waste my words on this joke. The committee is up to something, but I am not exactly sure what. They certainly are not looking at the same criteria everyone else is.

If it was not going to be an 8/3 split before, it certainly looks like it is going to be now and the west will have no one to blame but themselves.

West
1- St. Norbert
2- Adrian
3- Hamline
4- Wis. Stout
5- Wis. Eau Claire
6- St. Thomas
7- MSOE
Click to expand...

Matt, my computer agrees with your West rankings except for a couple of differences in order. I can't figure out what in the h-e double hockey sticks the committee is doing.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Webb has informed me there will be a delay posting my column, so we'll do the quick version here (remember, this was created prior to the regional rankings coming out):

East Rankings
1 Oswego
2 Elmira
3 Utica
4 Plattsburgh
5 Norwich
6 Salem State
7 Neumann
8 Geneseo
9 Manhattanville
10 Hobart or Castleton
[X] Williams
[X+1] Curry

I got lazy after I slotted in the Pool C contenders.

West (again, prior to seeing the NCAA Rankings)
1 St. Norbert
2 Adrian
3 Hamline
4 UW-Stout
5 UW-Superior
6 UW-Eau Claire
7 St. Thomas

The short version: Adrian is rocking most teams below them in COP and has a H2H win against Hamline. It's kind of hard to argue with anything but the SOS, and this year, they may finally have enough other criteria to balance it out.

E1 Oswego (Pool A)
E2 Elmira (B)
E3 Utica (C)
E4 Plattsburgh (C)
E5 Norwich (A)
E6 Salem State (C)
E7 Williams (A)
E8 Curry (A)

W1 St. Norbert (A)
W2 Adrian (A)
W3 Hamline (A)

NCAA travel restrictions mean Hamline will get an undeserved bye to the quarterfinals in hopes the Green Knights take care of the Bulldogs and avoid a flight.

Opening Round
W2 Adrian at W1 St. Norbert
E8 Curry at E5 Norwich
E7 Williams and E6 Salem State

Quarterfinals
W3 Hamline at W2/W1
E8/E5 at E1 Oswego
E7/E6 at E2 Elmira
E4 Plattsburgh at E3 Utica

Semifinals
Elmira Pod at Oswego Pod
Utica Pod at St. Norbert Pod
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

So after round one I'd say I win the East projection while you take the West. Score is 1-1.

Salem at 6 and Adrian at 2? Really? Mr. SOS?
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Matt Rennell said:
So after round one I'd say I win the East projection while you take the West. Score is 1-1.

Salem at 6 and Adrian at 2? Really? Mr. SOS?
Click to expand...

As I said before, I'm contradicting myself. But out west nobody has a stellar SOS, so that one was a no brainer. I'm not really sure how they put Castelton where they do in relation to Salem State though. Seem like two sides of the same coin to me.

Edit: I did it out of laziness in not really examining Castleton (as I also ignored MSOE). I would hope the committee wasn't doing the same. I think my Salem State miff may come down to forgetting the SOS/RNK double dip, where not playing Ranked Teams is a death sentence.
 
Last edited:
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Too Bad Adrian couldn't play Elmira it is only 460 mi but that would be another can of worms
It is all Adrian's fault :D
It would be unfair to Elmira being a #2 seed
The east would lose a pool C slot
 
Last edited:
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

As Hammer brought up in the rankings thread, somebody is going to jump into that #7 spot for MSOE if Adrian takes care of them and if they don't Adrian may drop behind Hamline and St. Thomas. I don't know what they are cooking up, but those West rankings just don't make sense. The obvious hope to get 4 from the West would be someone beating SNC in the NCHA playoffs. I guess the next priority will be how they can best position themselves for either Adrian or Hamline to get a Pool C if either don't win their conference tournament. If St. Thomas doesn't win the MIAC tournament I can't see them comparing favorably for a Pool C with 10 losses.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Matt Rennell said:
NCAA Quarterfinals
Norwich/Plattsburgh winner @ Oswego
Hamilton/Utica winner @ Curry/Elmira winner
Adrian @ St. Norbert
Hamline @ Wis. Superior
Click to expand...

Josh Carey said:
E1 Oswego (Pool A)
E2 Elmira (B)
E3 Utica (C)
E4 Plattsburgh (C)
E5 Norwich (A)
E6 Salem State (C)
E7 Williams (A)
E8 Curry (A)

Quarterfinals
W3 Hamline at W2/W1
E8/E5 at E1 Oswego
E7/E6 at E2 Elmira
E4 Plattsburgh at E3 Utica
Click to expand...

Sheesh. What a way to be rewarded for taking the top spot in the East - being seeded to play against either Plattsburgh or Norwich (assuming Curry loses in the 1st round).

The seeding is done more out of a way to minimize travel, correct? Because wouldn't it make more sense to give the top seed the lowest remaining seed (as in the winner of the 6/7 matchup as opposed to the 5/8 matchup assuming the higher seeds win both games)?

Also, is there any way that Oswego does not hold on to the #1 spot in the East? I would think losing their next 3 to Brockport, Geneseo and whoever they play in the SUNYAC quarters could possibly accomplish that, but any other scenario(s)? I mean I would expect they could at least handle Brockport...
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

nysportsfan29 said:
Also, is there any way that Oswego does not hold on to the #1 spot in the East? I would think losing their next 3 to Brockport, Geneseo and whoever they play in the SUNYAC quarters could possibly accomplish that, but any other scenario(s)? I mean I would expect they could at least handle Brockport...
Click to expand...

If Oswego loses in the SUNYAC quarterfinals, something is really wrong in Oz. How do you lose a game against an opponent named "BYE"??? :)

Then again, we ARE discussing the team that lost the 1987 National Championship to *Vacant. :rolleyes:
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

CARDS_rule_the_Burgh said:
If Oswego loses in the SUNYAC quarterfinals, something is really wrong in Oz. How do you lose a game against an opponent named "BYE"??? :)

Then again, we ARE discussing the team that lost the 1987 National Championship to *Vacant. :rolleyes:
Click to expand...

+1
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top