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The definitive tournament speculation thread

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

VermontfaninNY said:
Here are my picks: here are my picks:
Automatic bids:
ECAC East: Castleton
ECAC Northeast, Curry
NESCAC, Middlebury
SUNYAC, Oswego
MCHA, Adrian
MIAC Hamlin
NCHA St. Norbert
Pool B Utica

The ECAC West finished the season with a nonconference record of 46–10–9. There is no way that two teams don't make it in. I am going with Elmira as the other ECACW team.

There is only one team that gets in from MIAC, NCHA, NESCAC, ECACNE, MCHA
No team gets in from MASCAC

Assumptions: If Hamline/Oswego/Castleton/St. Norbert/Utica lose there conference, they are still in.
Since it is almost a certainly one of the above teams will loose, they will get one of the auto-bids.

The third auto-bid will go to Norwich/Geneseo/Plattsburgh. If Plattsburgh goes to the SUNYAC conference championship they are in. If Norwich wins out and goes to the championship game they are in. Neither of these are true if Geneseo beats Oswego next weekend.
Click to expand...

It may be a matter of semantics, but Utica won't be getting the Pool B as it is right now. They'll be the first Pool C team.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I agree two teams from the ecac west will get in however I still am not sure which two teams that will be. Right now it seems most people think it will be Utica and Elmira but if one of the other 3 teams wins out and then wins the ecac west playoff I can't see that team not getting in even though it happened to Manhattenville last season. Am I wrong thinking all 5 teams still have a legitimate shot at making the tournament?
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

ncaacdn said:
I agree two teams from the ecac west will get in however I still am not sure which two teams that will be. Right now it seems most people think it will be Utica and Elmira but if one of the other 3 teams wins out and then wins the ecac west playoff I can't see that team not getting in even though it happened to Manhattenville last season. Am I wrong thinking all 5 teams still have a legitimate shot at making the tournament?
Click to expand...

With the way both Norwich and Plattsburgh have had some troubles this year and how much they've lost recently, I'd say Manhattanville is out of the running with Neumann also. I would not be surprised to see the 3 other teams get in the tourney, but that would be under the assumption that all the conference tourneys go the right way.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

ncaacdn said:
I agree two teams from the ecac west will get in however I still am not sure which two teams that will be. Right now it seems most people think it will be Utica and Elmira but if one of the other 3 teams wins out and then wins the ecac west playoff I can't see that team not getting in even though it happened to Manhattanville last season. Am I wrong thinking all 5 teams still have a legitimate shot at making the tournament?
Click to expand...
Yes.
1 Pool B + 3 Pool C (max) = 4 teams < 5
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

OSU2010 said:
he is saying that all 5 teams have a shot individually, not that all 5 teams will get in.
Click to expand...
If you read it that way.

Still waiting for Josh Carey and the TUC's, live from the Mobius Lounge in Vadnais Heights, MN.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

OSU2010 said:
he is saying that all 5 teams have a shot individually, not that all 5 teams will get in.
Click to expand...

This is absolutly true, I definately realize there is a 0% chance all five teams will get in. I did make mention that I feel only two teams will get in and an outside shot at 3.

So if Manhattenville sweeps Hobart or Hobart sweep their series against M'ville and Elmira and then go on to win the ecac west tournamnet i think that team would advance, same goes for Neumann if they sweep Utica this weekend beat Elmira the week after then win the Ecac West Tournamnet what would keep these teams out? I realize the likelyhoodof these things happenning is small however there is a chance one of these could happen, thus I feel all 5 teams still in some way can control their own destiny and possibly make they tournament.
 
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Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I think its going to be a close call between Norwich and Plattsburgh. The bottom line is that Plattsburgh holds its fate in its hands, if they make it to the SUNYAC title game this is a non-issue. If Norwich beats Castleton next weekend it is going to be real close. Keep in mind in terms of win %, Norwich plays 2 more games then PSU still does this year (including playoffs). If each wins out and loses in the championship game, I believe that gives Norwich the better winning %. PSU clearly wins head to head, but what is unknown is how much of a boost beat Castleton would increase the strength of schedule, as they both face 3 mediocre teams the rest of the year.

(Full disclosure, I got to Plattsburgh but have Norwich season tickets, I am as split between the two teams as you are going to get).
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

(Full disclosure, I got to Plattsburgh but have Norwich season tickets, I am as split between the two teams as you are going to get).

Nope, I think Prez has you beat!!
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Here is my projection for how the rankings will look and a stab as to what the NCAA field will look like...

East
1- Oswego
2- Elmira
3- Utica
4- Plattsburgh
5- Norwich
6- Geneseo
7- Hobart
8- Neumann
9- Manhattanville
10- Castleton
11- Salem State
12- Bowdoin
13- Plymouth State
14- Morrisville
15- Hamilton

West
1- St. Norbert
2- Wis. Superior
3- Hamline
4- Wis. Eau Claire
5- Wis. Stout
6- Adrian
7- Wis. Stevens Point

Pool A
Oswego
St. Norbert
Norwich
Hamline
Adrian
Hamilton
Curry

Pool B
Elmira

Pool C TUC
East: Utica, Plattsburgh, and Geneseo
West: UWS, UWEC, Wis. Stout

Code: 
       Utica vs Wisconsin-Superior
WIN      0.6667  1           0.5400  0
SOS      0.5786  1           0.5521  0

Utica takes the first Pool C spot without much discussion. Which brings us to the next comparison.

Code: 
       Plattsburgh vs Wisconsin-Superior
WIN      0.6739  1           0.5400  0
SOS      0.5382  0           0.5521  1

This is a bit closer, but the difference in win % outweighs the difference in SOS. I am awarding the second Pool C spot to Plattsburgh. Now we take a look to see who grabs the final spot.

Code: 
       Geneseo vs Wisconsin-Superior
WIN      0.6842  1           0.5400  0
SOS      0.5072  0           0.5521  1

Again, we have a split in criteria. This time however, the gap in SOS is much greater than the previous comparison, with the win % difference being roughly the same. As a result I am awarding the third and final Pool C spot to Wis. Superior.

Which gives us a field of

East
1- Oswego
2- Elmira
3- Utica
4- Plattsburgh
5- Norwich
6- Hamilton
7- Curry

West
1- St. Norbert
2- Wis. Superior
3- Hamline
4- Adrian

NCAA Play-ins
Curry @ Elmira
Hamilton @ Utica
Norwich @ Plattsburgh

NCAA Quarterfinals
Norwich/Plattsburgh winner @ Oswego
Hamilton/Utica winner @ Curry/Elmira winner
Adrian @ St. Norbert
Hamline @ Wis. Superior


........paging Josh Carey
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Not sure why you have UW Sup over Hamline when The Pipers beat them them pretty soundly 4-1 a dew weeks back.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

puckrfactor said:
Not sure why you have UW Sup over Hamline when The Pipers beat them them pretty soundly 4-1 a dew weeks back.
Click to expand...

The same reason I have Hamline ahead of GAC, St. Johns, Adrian, and Wis. Stevens Point despite them all "soundly" beating Hamline this season. One game does not a season make.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I understand the "one game" thing. But you still didn't answer my question. Is it SOS, Win%, etc.? Just curious.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Code: 
Geneseo vs Salem State 
WIN 0.6842  0 0.7000  1 
SOS 0.5084  0 0.5141  1 
H2H 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0 
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0 
RNK 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0 
===============================
PTS 0                 2
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

joecct said:
Code: 
Geneseo vs Salem State 
WIN 0.6842  0 0.7000  1 
SOS 0.5084  0 0.5141  1 
H2H 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0 
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0 
RNK 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0 
===============================
PTS 0                 2
Click to expand...

Interesting.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

puckrfactor said:
I understand the "one game" thing. But you still didn't answer my question. Is it SOS, Win%, etc.? Just curious.
Click to expand...

In that particular scenario it did come down primarily to SOS.

Keep in mind though, in both regions, there are groups of teams which are extremely close and 1 loss could drop a team several spots.

Also as joecct pointed out. One team may beat another in criteria straight up, but they do not fair as well against the rest of the region. For example, Salem beats Geneseo in criteria, but Genny beat out all the teams between them and Salem where Salem did not. This occured in several instances which makes the rankings very difficult to do. Another example is Manhattanville doing well in a comparison to Norwich but not against the other teams in the region. At times it really does become a neverending circle.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Thanks for the explanation. This "never ending circle" crap is fun!!! Even if it is **** confusing. Entertaining to say the least. Play on!
 
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