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The definitive tournament speculation thread

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Aren't they supposed to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible?

Couldn't Castleton and Hamilton be switched to do this?

Castleton @ Plattsburgh
Hamilton @ Norwich
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

PrezdeJohnson09 said:
Aren't they supposed to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible?

Couldn't Castleton and Hamilton be switched to do this?

Castleton @ Plattsburgh
Hamilton @ Norwich
Click to expand...

The NCAA has never had any policy of avoiding intra-conference matchups. There are only two things the NCAA is concerned with. Determining the matchups based on seeding, and keeping flights at a minimum, with a huge emphasis on the last part.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

While the predictions are obviously sound from a criteria standpoint, is there any reason to believe Plattsburgh will push ahead of Norwich? Whatever reasoning was used to place the Cadets last week wouldn't seem to be affected by this past weekend. Not that I'd mind the flip-flop :o ; I'm just wondering whether you take the NCAA's known trends into account when predicting.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

If a Pool A Falls in their tournament
Who will still get a Pool C bid and who in pool C drops out?
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

If you are trying to predict the NCAA committees' thinking (which is like trying to locate a particle in Brownian motion), wouldn't you leave NU ahead of Platts? That's where they were last week, and NU had two wins this weekend and Platts had one. I can't see any justification for change (unless it's the committee saying "oops, we were wrong last week").
 
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Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Matt Rennell said:
EAST
1- Oswego
2- Elmira
3- Utica
4- Norwich
5- Plattsburgh
6- Castleton
7- Hamilton
8- Curry

WEST
1- St. Norbert
2- Adrian
3- Hamline
Click to expand...

Matt,

Using your rankings with the exception of the Norwich-Platts switch and, staying consistent with what usually happens, this is what we should be looking at. I'm doing this more to get a visual than anything.

NCAA First Rd.
Curry @ Plattsburgh
Hamilton @ Castleton
Adrian @ St. Norbert or Hamline @ Adrian

NCAA Quarterfinals
Castleton/Hamilton winner @ Oswego
Plattsbugh/Curry winner @ Elmira
Norwich @ Utica
Remaining West teams at higher seed.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

NUProf said:
If you are trying to predict the NCAA committees' thinking (which is like trying to locate a particle in Brownian motion), wouldn't you leave NU ahead of Platts? That's where they were last week, and NU had two wins this weekend and Platts had one. I can't see any justification for change (unless it's the committee saying "oops, we were wrong last week").
Click to expand...

Yes they won twice, but given the two teams they played their SOS took a hit. Plattsburgh's did as well by playing Potsdam but not as much. That combined with the 2-0-0 H2H and the RNK records of 6-3-1 for PSU and 4-4-1 for Norwich I can't justify it. Maybe the committee will keep it the same, but if they do they are ignoring their own criteria.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

AldenPartridge1819 said:
Matt,

Using your rankings with the exception of the Norwich-Platts switch and, staying consistent with what usually happens, this is what we should be looking at. I'm doing this more to get a visual than anything.

NCAA First Rd.
Curry @ Plattsburgh
Hamilton @ Castleton
Adrian @ St. Norbert or Hamline @ Adrian

NCAA Quarterfinals
Castleton/Hamilton winner @ Oswego
Plattsbugh/Curry winner @ Elmira
Norwich @ Utica
Remaining West teams at higher seed.
Click to expand...

Hamline and Adrian can't play each other in the Play-in. They are more than 500 miles apart. Also the NCAA wont put W1 SNC in a play in vs W2 and give W3 Hamline a BYE. Adrian can go to Elmira without flying which allows the top two teams in each region to get a BYE to the Quarters.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Irishdave said:
If a Pool A Falls in their tournament
Who will still get a Pool C bid and who in pool C drops out?
Click to expand...

The order of the Pool C's go as follows

1- Utica
2- Plattsburgh
3- Castleton

So if a favorite falls who is ranked ahead of Castleton the Spartans drop out.

Based on my rankings, the teams Castleton needs to win in order to get the Pool C are Oswego, St. Norbert, Norwich (unless it is to Castleton, obviously), and what might be shocking.......Adrian. That's right, based on the current numbers, if Adrian loses the MCHA it is a possibility they could get the last Pool C spot.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Matt Rennell said:
Yes they won twice, but given the two teams they played their SOS took a hit. Plattsburgh's did as well by playing Potsdam but not as much. That combined with the 2-0-0 H2H and the RNK records of 6-3-1 for PSU and 4-4-1 for Norwich I can't justify it. Maybe the committee will keep it the same, but if they do they are ignoring their own criteria.
Click to expand...

I agree with the RNK tally, and can't forget the two NU loses to PSU, so why would the NCAA (on 2/15) rank NU higher?
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Matt Rennell said:
Yes they won twice, but given the two teams they played their SOS took a hit. Plattsburgh's did as well by playing Potsdam but not as much. That combined with the 2-0-0 H2H and the RNK records of 6-3-1 for PSU and 4-4-1 for Norwich I can't justify it. Maybe the committee will keep it the same, but if they do they are ignoring their own criteria.
Click to expand...

However, most of what you said was already true last week. I didn't understand how they ended up ranked ahead of them last week.

Matt - did you note what I quoted from the Handbook which implied that "once ranked always ranked" is back? It seems logical and would end the thrashing in the rankings that happens when a team falls out of the ratings.
 
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Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

NUProf said:
However, most of what you said was already true last week. I didn't understand how they ended up ranked ahead of them last week.

Matt - did you note what I quoted from the Handbook which implied that "once ranked always ranked" is back? It seems logical and would end the thrashing in the rankings that happens when a team falls out of the ratings.
Click to expand...

Yea I did see that and found that interesting. It certainly will have an effect on things and couple explain what the west was doing last week....
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Matt Rennell said:
Be patient. The numbers arent there yet but if Salem wins out and Castleton and Neumann lose, who knows. I am not declaring them dead yet by any means.
Click to expand...
Matt

Even if Salem loses in the playoffs, they will have the highest SoS of any MASCAC contender. And we have the Elmira -> Manhattanville precedent from last year. One loss in the playoffs will not kill them statistically. Perceptively, they would be dead, dead, dead.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Matt Rennell said:
Adrian can go to Elmira without flying which allows the top two teams in each region to get a BYE to the Quarters.
Click to expand...

I understand this, but until we see it done, I have a hard time believing that the NCAA will ever take this route.

I also wouldn't be surprised to see four west teams in, no matter what the numbers may say. There just aren't enough games between the two regions to emphatically do an 8-3 split. It's like instant replay in football: there needs to be irrefutable evidence to reverse a call.
 
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