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The definitive tournament speculation thread

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Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Josh Carey said:
The NCAA seeds the tournament correctly, to hell with geographic proximity?
Click to expand...

Well, if you do that we get this...

NCAA Field
1- Oswego (bye)
2- Norwich (bye)
3- St. Norbert (bye)
4- Middlebury (bye)
5- Plattsburgh (bye)
6- Bowdoin
7- Gustavus Adolphus
8- Manhattanville
9- Adrian
10- St. Thomas
11- Curry

Play-ins
Curry @ Bowdoin
St. Thomas @ Gustavus Adolphus
Adrian @ Manhattanville

NCAA Quarterfinals
Curry/Bowdoin @ St. Norbert
St. Thomas/Gustavus Adolphus @ Oswego
Adrian/Manhattanville @ Norwich
Plattsburgh @ Middlebury

Um, I'm gonna say no....:cool:

However if you flip Oswego and SNC, you get this....

NCAA Quarterfinals
Curry/Bowdoin @ Oswego
St. Thomas/Gustavus Adolphus @ St. Norbert
Adrian/Manhattanville @ Norwich
Plattsburgh @ Middlebury

This scenario could have as few as 2 and as many as 4 flights. I'm going to say that wont happen. But who knows anymore.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Matthew Webb said:
There's still an Armageddon bracket that is in play...and it's one no one has mentioned all season.

As of now, as far as I can tell...it's still in play. I refuse to believe it's going to happen, but I do believe it's on the table.
Click to expand...

Yes, Mr. Webb? Now that you've given us the free taste, we'd like to buy the drug. Please, Mr. Candyman?
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I wonder if the committee would peek at what you all have done here it looks like you have done all the work for them .............

wait I was having a senior moment
you all have been too logical
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Matt Rennell said:
Well, if you do that we get this...

NCAA Field
1- Oswego (bye)
2- Norwich (bye)
3- St. Norbert (bye)
4- Middlebury (bye)
5- Plattsburgh (bye)
6- Bowdoin
7- Gustavus Adolphus
8- Manhattanville
9- Adrian
10- St. Thomas
11- Curry

Play-ins
Curry @ Bowdoin
St. Thomas @ Gustavus Adolphus
Adrian @ Manhattanville

NCAA Quarterfinals
Curry/Bowdoin @ St. Norbert
St. Thomas/Gustavus Adolphus @ Oswego
Adrian/Manhattanville @ Norwich
Plattsburgh @ Middlebury

Um, I'm gonna say no....:cool:

However if you flip Oswego and SNC, you get this....

NCAA Quarterfinals
Curry/Bowdoin @ Oswego
St. Thomas/Gustavus Adolphus @ St. Norbert
Adrian/Manhattanville @ Norwich
Plattsburgh @ Middlebury

This scenario could have as few as 2 and as many as 4 flights. I'm going to say that wont happen. But who knows anymore.
Click to expand...


Bracket looks great. I wish this wouild happen.
 
Selection Sunday!!!

Selection Sunday!!!

It is now officially “Selection Sunday”!!! (For you folks in the next time zone, go ahead and throw-down two more pints, and feel free to join us).

What a frigged-up year, eh? So feel free to join the annual AOL IM discussion room, and state your opinion, theory (both valid and “conspiracy”), desires, etc in a real-time open forum, all in the spirit of good fun and education/information.

I will get the room started-up sometime around noon. Add me (TrnspltdTigerFan) to your AOL IM ‘Buddy List’, and then fire-off a chat request (it sure would help to identify yourself… I have no interest in meeting middle-aged men in their underwear doing God-knows-what). If I’m here, or shortly thereafter, I’ll direct you to the proper room, and you’ll be good to go. The room link may be put-up in this thread for easier access in the prime hours.
 
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Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

NorthernLite said:
this is your thread...........grow some and lay it down partner !
Click to expand...

Fine. Here is version one of my projections, substitute Elmira for Manhattanville if you so desire.

Matt Rennell said:
Here is my stab at it before looking at the updated numbers...

NCAA Field
1- Oswego (bye)
2- Norwich (bye)
3- St. Norbert
4- Middlebury (bye)
5- Plattsburgh (bye)
6- Bowdoin (bye)
7- Gustavus Adolphus
8- Manhattanville
9- Adrian
10- St. Thomas
11- Curry

Play-ins
Curry @ Manhattanville
Adrian @ St. Norbert
St. Thomas @ Gustavus Adolphus

NCAA Quarterfinals
Curry/Manhattanville @ Oswego
Bowdoin @ Norwich
Plattsburgh @ Middlebury
UST/GAC winner vs. Adrian/SNC winner (highest remaining seed hosts)

Now, once the results have been entered, we shall see if my projections change at all.
Click to expand...

There's also this basic outline, but fitting the western matchups in the quarterfinals like last year.

Here's the 8-3 projection.

E1 Norwich
E2 Oswego
E3 Middlebury
E4 Plattsburgh
E5 Bowdoin
E6 Elmira
E7 Manhattanville
E8 Curry

W1 St. Norbert
W2 St. Thomas
W3 Adrian

This requires some creating rankings on the eastern committee's part (Williams out, Hobart and Fredonia in), but that could be enough to get M'ville's RNK respectable. Then if you're the east you make a secondary criteria push for Bowdoin and M'ville over whoever the second ranked western team is.

Play-Ins
W3 Adrian at W1 St. Norbert (or they eat the flight and go W3/W2, whatever)
E8 Curry at E5 Bowdoin
E7 Manhattanville at E6 Elmira (lol)

Quarters
Western Play Down
E6/E7 at E1 Norwich
E8/E5 at E2 Oswego
E4 Plattsburgh at E3 Middlebury


And my guess at the "Armageddon scenario" is a 7-4 bracket

Opening Round
W3 UST at W2 GAC
E7 Curry at E4 Plattsburgh
E6 Elmira/M'ville at E5 Bowdoin

Quarterfinals
W3/W2 at E2 Oswego (not a typo)
W4 Adrian at W1. St. Norbert
E6/E5 at E1 Norwich
E7/E4 at E3 Middlebury

Which has 3 possible flights and two guaranteed flights (the guaranteed number being the same as a 7-4 split with two western quarterfinals), but does get the top four seeds in the tournament byes to the quarterfinals.

Webb has told me nothing (of any significance), so don't assume I'm acting as a mouthpiece for him. Purely my speculation. If they come at us with something other than those four scenarios, I'll be surprised. Those are likely my final projections for the year,
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

E1: Norwich
E2: Oswego
E3: Middlebury
E4: Plattsburgh
E5: Manhattanville
E6: Elmira
E7: Curry

W1: St. Norbert
W2: Gustavus Adolphus
W3: Adrian
W4: St. Thomas

First Round:
Curry at Oswego
Elmira at Middlebury
Manhattanville at Plattsburgh

Quarterfinals:
Manhattanville/Plattsburgh at Norwich
Elmira/Middlebury at Curry/Oswego (At Elmira/Middlebury if Curry wins)
St. Thomas at St. Norbert
Adrian at Gustavus Adolphus


(Bowdin does not get in unless they win IMHO)
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Guys I know the numbers are there to support it..But Elmira is not getting in IMHO

We backed doored into this thing before.

2-5 in your last seven games doesn't deserve to get in.

Gustavus, the NESCAC loser, etc deserve it more than Elmira.

Give someone else a chance.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I have to agree about Elmira. In the criteria, they just don't stack up well against Bowdoin (if they lose), or Gustavus.

I haven't given serious consideration to sending Adrian to New York, but assuming Elmira is out, the chances become smaller. In a 6-5 split, I supposed they could bus Adrian to Oswego. But in order for that to happen, St. Scholastica has to get in, right? 8-3 can't happen, imho.

So I think Plattsburgh and Gustavus get Pool C, leaving Elmira, St. Scholastica and Bowdoin (if it loses) to fight for the last spot. I think it will be Bowdoin, or obviously Middlebury should the Polar Bears win today.

See the blog later today.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Chris Lerch said:
I have to agree about Elmira. In the criteria, they just don't stack up well against Bowdoin (if they lose), or Gustavus.

I haven't given serious consideration to sending Adrian to New York, but assuming Elmira is out, the chances become smaller. In a 6-5 split, I supposed they could bus Adrian to Oswego. But in order for that to happen, St. Scholastica has to get in, right? 8-3 can't happen, imho.

So I think Plattsburgh and Gustavus get Pool C, leaving Elmira, St. Scholastica and Bowdoin (if it loses) to fight for the last spot. I think it will be Bowdoin, or obviously Middlebury should the Polar Bears win today.

See the blog later today.
Click to expand...

If it does come down to those three.

Not only does Bowdoin have the better record...But, 8-0 in their last eight and 12-1-1 in their last 14 is all you need to know about the Polar Bears.

Give the bid to the deserving team.

CSS didn't even make their conference final and Elmira lost it on home ice AGAIN while only winning two games in their last seven.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

My crystal ball says 7-4 split with the west sending one team to the final four.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

CROSBYNU63 said:
My crystal ball says 7-4 split with the west sending one team to the final four.
Click to expand...

Adrian, SNC, St. Thomas and Gustavus?

Wouldn't stun me. Gustavus deserves the bid over CSS or Elmira. But do they deserve it over Bowdoin (if the PB's lose)
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

My bet is Bowdoin is in, so here is the seven I believe will be in from the east.
Norwich
Oswego
Middlebury
Bowdoin
Plattsburgh
Curry
Manhattanville/Elmira (take your pick)
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Can EC really get in over M'ville ??If thats the case why play any games at all just play 5 games and have the computer do the rest.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

PrezdeJohnson09 said:
Adrian, SNC, St. Thomas and Gustavus?

Wouldn't stun me. Gustavus deserves the bid over CSS or Elmira. But do they deserve it over Bowdoin (if the PB's lose)
Click to expand...

R play-in games a possibility...not to mess things up but how would that work?...does that allow the committee some flexibility without messing up the total # of teams in the actual tournament and the east - west ratio of teams.

I would guess you couldn't place conference tournament winners in a play-in situation (I could be wrong) but teams like Gustavus could play-in against St. Schol from the West. I know GA has better stats but hey, they lost their tournament and St. Schol deseves a shot. From the East you could have Plattsburgh-Middlebury/Bowdoin (depending) host Elmira/Manhattanville. Any possibility or just plain dumb thinking?
ROOKIE
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I still think the best bet for the West would be to put St. Thomas ahead of Adrian in the regional rankings so Adrian could go to SNC for the Quarters and then St. Thomas and Gustavus could match up. This helps with the geographic proximity excuse for sending Adrian out East and having the two MIAC schools play-in for a Saturday game at SNC. They still could make both of those matchups play-ins and play down to one West team for the Frozen Four, but I see it as less likely.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

valliant defender said:
Can EC really get in over M'ville ??If thats the case why play any games at all just play 5 games and have the computer do the rest.
Click to expand...

To be fair, Elmira was 2-2-0 against Manhattanville this year. It's not as if Manhattanville knocked them around all season. With a SOS of 11 for Elmira and 31 for Manhattanville it might come down to key losses on the season.

Elmira Losses:
  • Manhattanville (2x)
  • Morrisville
  • Oswego (2x)
  • Neumann (2x)
  • Hobart
Elmira OOC Wins (Good Wins):
  • Oswego

Manhattanville Losses:
  • Elmira (2x)
  • Curry
  • Williams
  • Hobart
  • Neumann
Manhattanville OOC Wins (Good Wins):
  • None

These two teams are awfully close to me.
 
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Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Does any one have a list of all af the 20+game winners (who also won their conf.tourney),left out during the selection process.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

They are close enough that I think the league championship game has to trump any other secondary criteria. It's Manhattanville in the tournament.
 
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