Josh Carey
Stats Guy
Yay symmetry in thread titles! Since we're within locking range in the tournament speculation thread, I figured I'd create this separate discussion. I've seen a lot of questions over why did X happen from good intentioned people who just want information (and don't have the time to scroll through 20 pages of new posts in the last 48 hours in the other thread to get it), I wanted to have everything clearly identified in the first post of a new thread.
So let's answer some common questions.
1) Why is St. Norbert playing on Wednesday?
Geographic proximity and an oddly shaped bracket.
Because the NCAA is a bunch of cheap ********, they don't want to spend any more money on D3 athletics than they have to. So they have created a rule that teams can not fly for the quarterfinals or opening round game. Except they've arbitrarily set the number of miles a team can travel without flying at 500 miles.
This creates a problem in the case of Adrian, who is only within 500 miles of two western teams outside of the MCHA: St. Norbert and Stevens Point. And now you should be seeing where this is going. By putting St. Norbert against Adrian, the NCAA assures what might be the only way to not fly Adrian this tournament. If the Bulldogs lose to the Green Knights, the NCAA only needs to fly one team for the entire tournament.
2) Why is this a crock?
Well several reasons.
A) The 500 mile rule is arbitrary. The NCAA could just as easily say the allowable radius is 531 miles. Or 427. All which would have different effects on the bracket.
B) The NCAA calculation might be screwy. Google Maps says Adrian could drive to Oswego, the NCAa calculation disagrees.
C) The NCAA could have sent Adrian to Elmira and had the winner play Norwich and had the same flight possibilities while getting St. Norbert - the #3 overall seed in the tournament - a bye to the quarterfinals.
C.ii) The corollary to this is that maybe the NCAA calculation is flawed or ignored, or rounded and that the 499.0 miles listed from Adrian to Elmira (seriously) eliminated that option. Likewise, that might be campus-to-campus distances (I think they are) and Elmira's off-campus rink might have required that have a flight as a result.
C.iii) The NCAA has a rule saying one team gets into the postseason tournament for every 6.5 that play the sport. This "access ratio" is arbitrary and results in an awkward 11 team tournament. With 3 automatic qualifiers in the west and 5 in the east, it makes a 7-4 split likely (2 eastern pool C teams and 1 western Pool C team mirrors the ratio of teams in those regions). Without cross-regionalizing any teams, that means, with the NCAA's flight rules, either all four western teams get a bye to the quarterfinals (last year) or all four play down to one team in the opening round (this year). That screws either the W1 seed or the E2 seed, depending on how you slice it. This year it was the western seed's turn.
C.iv) What makes this most ironic is that next year, when the tournament is held out west, three teams could fly from the east. This happened in 2007 and is happening with the women's tournament.
3) Why did Elmira get in over Manhattanville?
Ironically, because the committee did something right for a change.
The criteria for Pool B states that the best team from a conference without an automatic qualifier gets a bid. "Best" is defined as having the best comparisons in the NCAA selection criteria.
In the past, this bid has gone to the ECAC-West tournament champion, seemingly independently of what the criteria stated. So when Manhattanville won the ECAC-West tournament on Saturday, most prognosticators moved the Valiants into the tournament. However, here is the final comparison between Elmira and Manhattanville (based on the last publised ranked teams).
Remember, SOS is actually one comparison. When weighing WIN against SOS, the only real difference is in RNK, where Elmira holds a steady advantage. Based on how the criteria has been weighted in the past, Elmira should have been a clear winner, even after the championship loss. The fact this may be the first time the committee did this correctly is what threw people off. But again, I was pointing out to not discount Elmira as of yesterday afternoon.
4) How does the NCAA justify all this?
New article on the vision of Division-III at NCAA.org
5) How can I complain productively?
Post on the USCHO.com message board. Wait, no, that's the opposite of productive.
You could Call the NCAA.
Contacting your favorite school's Sports Information Department and asking if there are any avenues you could pursue is an option. Also, if you are at a (western school) without a hockey program, you could lobby to have hockey added, which in the long run could alleviate some of the issues that happen with the current system.
So let's answer some common questions.
1) Why is St. Norbert playing on Wednesday?
Geographic proximity and an oddly shaped bracket.
Because the NCAA is a bunch of cheap ********, they don't want to spend any more money on D3 athletics than they have to. So they have created a rule that teams can not fly for the quarterfinals or opening round game. Except they've arbitrarily set the number of miles a team can travel without flying at 500 miles.
This creates a problem in the case of Adrian, who is only within 500 miles of two western teams outside of the MCHA: St. Norbert and Stevens Point. And now you should be seeing where this is going. By putting St. Norbert against Adrian, the NCAA assures what might be the only way to not fly Adrian this tournament. If the Bulldogs lose to the Green Knights, the NCAA only needs to fly one team for the entire tournament.
2) Why is this a crock?
Well several reasons.
A) The 500 mile rule is arbitrary. The NCAA could just as easily say the allowable radius is 531 miles. Or 427. All which would have different effects on the bracket.
B) The NCAA calculation might be screwy. Google Maps says Adrian could drive to Oswego, the NCAa calculation disagrees.
C) The NCAA could have sent Adrian to Elmira and had the winner play Norwich and had the same flight possibilities while getting St. Norbert - the #3 overall seed in the tournament - a bye to the quarterfinals.
C.ii) The corollary to this is that maybe the NCAA calculation is flawed or ignored, or rounded and that the 499.0 miles listed from Adrian to Elmira (seriously) eliminated that option. Likewise, that might be campus-to-campus distances (I think they are) and Elmira's off-campus rink might have required that have a flight as a result.
C.iii) The NCAA has a rule saying one team gets into the postseason tournament for every 6.5 that play the sport. This "access ratio" is arbitrary and results in an awkward 11 team tournament. With 3 automatic qualifiers in the west and 5 in the east, it makes a 7-4 split likely (2 eastern pool C teams and 1 western Pool C team mirrors the ratio of teams in those regions). Without cross-regionalizing any teams, that means, with the NCAA's flight rules, either all four western teams get a bye to the quarterfinals (last year) or all four play down to one team in the opening round (this year). That screws either the W1 seed or the E2 seed, depending on how you slice it. This year it was the western seed's turn.
C.iv) What makes this most ironic is that next year, when the tournament is held out west, three teams could fly from the east. This happened in 2007 and is happening with the women's tournament.
3) Why did Elmira get in over Manhattanville?
Ironically, because the committee did something right for a change.
The criteria for Pool B states that the best team from a conference without an automatic qualifier gets a bid. "Best" is defined as having the best comparisons in the NCAA selection criteria.
In the past, this bid has gone to the ECAC-West tournament champion, seemingly independently of what the criteria stated. So when Manhattanville won the ECAC-West tournament on Saturday, most prognosticators moved the Valiants into the tournament. However, here is the final comparison between Elmira and Manhattanville (based on the last publised ranked teams).
Code:
Elmira vs Manhattanville
WIN 0.6731 0 0.7500 1
OWP 0.5548 1 0.4795 0
OOP 0.5064 0 0.5109 1
H2H 2- 2- 0 0 2- 2- 0 0
COP 12- 4- 0 0 12- 2- 1 1
RNK 5- 6- 1 1 3- 5- 1 0Remember, SOS is actually one comparison. When weighing WIN against SOS, the only real difference is in RNK, where Elmira holds a steady advantage. Based on how the criteria has been weighted in the past, Elmira should have been a clear winner, even after the championship loss. The fact this may be the first time the committee did this correctly is what threw people off. But again, I was pointing out to not discount Elmira as of yesterday afternoon.
4) How does the NCAA justify all this?
New article on the vision of Division-III at NCAA.org
5) How can I complain productively?
Post on the USCHO.com message board. Wait, no, that's the opposite of productive.
You could Call the NCAA.
Contacting your favorite school's Sports Information Department and asking if there are any avenues you could pursue is an option. Also, if you are at a (western school) without a hockey program, you could lobby to have hockey added, which in the long run could alleviate some of the issues that happen with the current system.
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