As for the House, as Cook points out, Democrats still have the momentum. Little has changed in the past six months. The Washington Post/Schar School poll of the most competitive 69 seats (overwhelmingly held by Republicans) showed Democrats up four points. The latest CNN generic-ballot poll has Democrats up 13 points, “the widest margin of support for Democrats in a midterm cycle since 2006, when at this point, the party held a whopping 21-point lead over Republicans among likely voters.” And at least in this poll, Kavanaugh did not narrow the enthusiasm gap. (“This year, Democrats’ enthusiasm about their congressional vote has increased and 62% now say they’re extremely or very enthusiastic to vote, up seven points since September among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. Among Republicans and Republican leaning independents, enthusiasm has remained relatively steady, going from 50% in September to 52% in the most recent poll.”)
If you look at individual races, Democrats have plenty to cheer about. If Republicans can hold on in a swing suburban district, you’d think incumbents such as GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock in Virginia’s 10th District would be doing just fine. She’s a workhorse and a pro at constituent services — and even voted against repeal of Obamacare. She is trailing by 12 points in the Post/Schar School’s latest poll. (“The survey finds voters say the president is the most important factor influencing likely voters’ choice for Congress, more so even than the strong economy which would boost the party in power in a typical election year.”) Comstock is losing among independents 60 percent to 36 percent. In 2016, she won reelection by about six points while Trump lost the district by 10 points. Now, she cannot disentangle herself from the president.
Many who follow politics 24/7 think each event has enormous consequences, especially if we are near an election. Separating Kavanaugh from overall trends will be tough, but so far it looks as thought Trump has poisoned the well for House Republicans, helped stabilize the deepest-red states but not done anything much for purple states (such as Florida and Nevada). Democrats would be happy to return to a pre-2016 map — with an energized base and new strength from women.
