The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

I would love if the committee went pure bracket integrity and only swapped if intra-conference matchups presented themselves. Unfortunately, the committee has shown time and time again that attendance is more important.

part of the problem is the #2 seeds are all currently western teams...I get it.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

part of the problem is the #2 seeds are all currently western teams...I get it.

It really is hurting the committee to have 8 of the top 9 teams from the "west."

I do think that will even out a bit over the final few weeks as those teams beat up on each other. Still a long way to go...

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Obviously, the rankings will move, but given that we're starting the stretch run here, might as well do this as much as possible

Rankings as of this morning:
1. Minnesota State (AQ)
2. North Dakota (AQ)
3. Boston University (AQ)
4. Minnesota Duluth
5. Miami
6. Michigan Tech
7. Bowling Green
8. Nebraska Omaha
9. Denver
10. Providence
11. Quinnipiac (AQ)
12. Boston College
13. Harvard
14. Minnesota
15. Michigan (AQ)
16. Robert Morris (AQ)

Straight up brackets:

South Bend
1. Minnesota State vs. 16. Robert Morris
8. Nebraska Omaha vs. 9. Denver

Fargo
2. North Dakota vs. 15. Michigan
7. Bowling Green vs. 10. Providence

Providence
3. Boston University vs. 14. Minnesota
6. Michigan Tech vs. 11. Quinnipiac

Manchester
4. Minnesota Duluth vs. 13. Harvard
5. Miami vs. 12. Boston College

Inter-conference issues? Yes - we need to move either Omaha or Denver.
Attendance issues? Yes - South Bend is a morgue with that lineup. Would love to get Michigan there, but they are unable. Considering we have to move either Omaha or Denver, let's swap Omaha with Bowling Green, as that should help with South Bend's attendance and also saves 2 flights. Fargo isn't an issue attendance wise, but swapping Michigan with Minnesota would save a flight...plus I don't see the committee being able to keep themselves from pairing Minnesota and North Dakota if possible. My guess is the committee would also prefer to have Providence in Providence, and I don't see the committee putting BC out west if possible. So that gives us:

South Bend: (BI = 33)
1. Minnesota State vs. 16. Robert Morris
7. Bowling Green vs. 9. Denver

Fargo: (BI = 35)
2. North Dakota vs. 14. Minnesota
8. Nebraska Omaha vs. 11. Quinnipiac

Providence: (BI = 34)
3. Boston University vs. 15. Michigan
6. Michigan Tech vs. 10. Providence

Manchester: (BI = 34)
4. Minnesota Duluth vs. 13. Harvard
5. Miami vs. 12. Boston College

Inter-conference Issues? No
Attendance Issues?

South Bend - There may be some issues here. Having a close team in Bowling Green will help, but Michigan would be the ultimate piece of this puzzle (barring Notre Dame winning the Hockey East Tournament). The committee has it within its power to move Michigan to South Bend, but the committee has shown a strong willingness that they will protect the top overall seed if at all possible. As a result, with the current lineup of teams, this would probably be the best option. That being said, Robert Morris is within driving distance, so they will likely have a decent showing if this is where they end up.

Fargo - Already sold out, and should have no issues filling the place with both North Dakota, Minnesota, and Omaha within driving distance.

Providence - Should be in good shape. Having BU and Providence should help fill the rink. Michigan is a national brand, so that should help draw in a few extras. Michigan Tech is a wild card too. There are plenty of NCAA Tournament starved Techies out there, so I wouldn't be surprised if they make a decent showing wherever they are placed.

Manchester - Duluth and Miami won't be big ticket drivers, but Boston College will help significantly. Throw in a Harvard team that hasn't had a ton of national success in almost a decade, and that fan base will probably be a bit more excited than normal. My guess is it won't be tremendously attended, but should be solid.

Bracket Integrity? Considering all the moves, the bracket integrity is pretty good. We don't get perfect 1v8, 2v7... in the potential regional finals, but getting 1v7, 2v8, 3v6, 4v5 is as close to that as you can get.

So, that is my bracketology for today...it will probably look significantly different tomorrow

 

[LTsatch]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Anyone know the whereabouts of Priceless?

 

[Terrier520]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Manchester: (BI = 34)
4. Minnesota Duluth vs. 13. Harvard
5. Miami vs. 12. Boston College

Hear that? That's the sound of everyone in Oxford starting to cry.

 

[Laker Dude]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

South Bend - There may be some issues here. Having a close team in Bowling Green will help, but Michigan would be the ultimate piece of this puzzle (barring Notre Dame winning the Hockey East Tournament). The committee has it within its power to move Michigan to South Bend, but the committee has shown a strong willingness that they will protect the top overall seed if at all possible. As a result, with the current lineup of teams, this would probably be the best option. That being said, Robert Morris is within driving distance, so they will likely have a decent showing if this is where they end up.

I believe that Notre Dame fans had to purchase regional tickets with their season ticket packages. I think most of the seats are sold for the games. Don't know what the secondary market for tickets will look like if Notre Dame does not make it.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

I believe that Notre Dame fans had to purchase regional tickets with their season ticket packages. I think most of the seats are sold for the games. Don't know what the secondary market for tickets will look like if Notre Dame does not make it.

Thanks for bringing that to my attention. It looks like only singles remain for South Bend, so perhaps there will be no attendance issues after all. As you pointed out, that doesn't mean that the building will be full, but for NCAA purposes, it probably doesn't matter too much who is sent there.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Pairwise Rankings as of 2/15/2014:
1. Minnesota State (AQ)
2. North Dakota (AQ)
3. Boston University (AQ)
4. Minnesota Duluth
5. Nebraska Omaha
6. Miami
7. Michigan Tech
8. Bowling Green
9. Denver
10. Quinnipiac (AQ)
11. Boston College
12. Providence
13. Minnesota (AQ)
14. Yale
15. Harvard
16. Robert Morris (AQ)

Straight Up Brackets gives us...

South Bend:
1. Minnesota State vs. 16. Robert Morris
8. Bowling Green vs. 9. Denver

Fargo:
2. North Dakota vs. 15. Harvard
7. Michigan Tech vs. 10. Quinnipiac

Providence:
3. Boston University vs. 14. Yale
6. Miami vs. 11. Boston College

Manchester:
4. Minnesota Duluth vs. 13. Minnesota
5. Nebraska Omaha vs. 12. Providence

Inter-conference Issues? None.
Attendance Issues? Manchester has some struggles, and my guess is the committee would like Providence in Providence. Also, I don't see the committee flying Minnesota out east and Harvard out west. My proposal in this situation would be to completely swap the Manchester and Providence Regionals. I believe the difference in distance for BC between Manchester and Providence is less than 10 miles, so no real issue with doing that. After that, I would flip Minnesota out to Fargo, Harvard out to face BU in Manchester, and Yale staying in Providence. That gives us brackets like this...

South Bend: (BI = 34)
1. Minnesota State vs. 16. Robert Morris
8. Bowling Green vs. 9. Denver

Fargo: (BI = 32)
2. North Dakota vs. 13. Minnesota
7. Michigan Tech vs. 10. Quinnipiac

Manchester: (BI = 35)
3. Boston University vs. 15. Harvard
6. Miami vs. 11. Boston College

Providence: (BI = 35)
4. Minnesota Duluth vs. 14. Yale
5. Nebraska Omaha vs. 12. Providence

Intra-conference Issues? None
Attendance Issues? It might help splitting up the Boston schools a bit. That being said, I think Providence will be okay with both PC and Yale there. Manchester should be packed as Miami gets invited to the Beanpot Invitational 2.0. As previously mentioned, South Bend and Fargo are essentially sold out.
Bracket Integrity? Pretty good. The Fargo regional is difficult, but we maintained 1v8, 2v7, etc. potential regional finals. That's pretty good all things considered.
Flights? There are a few teams flying that could otherwise drive. Duluth, Miami, Omaha, and Quinnipiac are all within driving distance of regionals. Let's analyze each:

Duluth - They can't go to Fargo because North Dakota is a #1 seed and host. Unfortunately that means that the Bulldogs must be a flight at the moment.
Miami - They could move to South Bend, but that would simply be swapping 1 flight for 1 flight. Doesn't really make sense especially when considering bracket integrity.
Omaha - Omaha could drive to Fargo and move Michigan Tech out east, as the Huskies are a flight regardless. It wouldn't shock me if the committee did just that.
Quinnipiac - The Bobcats could drive to either Providence or Manchester, but that would simply be swapping 1 flight for 1 flight as then either PC or BC would be required to go out west. That doesn't really make much sense considering the schools and locations involved.

So, Omaha for Tech is really the only feasible swap for flights at the moment. Would the committee do that? My guess is no. It would make Fargo by far the hardest regional, featuring the top #2 and #4 seeds, as well as the second ranked #1 and #3 seeds. If there were attendance concerns that Omaha would address, I would tip my answer in favor of yes, but a simple flight is a different story. Omaha isn't going to improve Fargo, and Tech isn't going to provide much of a difference than Omaha in Providence. Consequently, this set of brackets would be how I would place the teams.

 

[LTsatch]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

I still have nightmares about the last UMD-Yale game.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

I still have nightmares about the last UMD-Yale game.

I am sure. What's interesting (at least to me) is, at the time, I just thought Yale was another EZAC squad. Three years later, after the ECAC doing well in 2012, then dominating the NCAA Tournament in 2013 and doing very well last year, that game may very well have been a massive upset. Ultimately though, I'm sure Yale fans can take solace in the 2013 National Championship.

 

[Red Cows]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

I know it might be counterintuitive to say or think this, but, if UNO gets into the tourney (I still consider this an if but Jim Dahl has me pretty convinced we'll be there) I sure wish we'd somehow end up in South Bend. That trip is very doable for me and, I am sure, many other UNO fans. Fargo tickets are probably a non-starter and I am not paying short notice air fares to see them play back east. It isn't in the budget.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

I know it might be counterintuitive to say or think this, but, if UNO gets into the tourney (I still consider this an if but Jim Dahl has me pretty convinced we'll be there) I sure wish we'd somehow end up in South Bend. That trip is very doable for me and, I am sure, many other UNO fans. Fargo tickets are probably a non-starter and I am not paying short notice air fares to see them play back east. It isn't in the budget.

FWIW, South Bend appears to be sold out. My guess is that if Notre Dame doesn't make the tournament that there will be plenty of tickets available on the secondary market for reasonable prices. That being said, barring an epic collapse, UNO will be in the tournament.

 

[Red Cows]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

FWIW, South Bend appears to be sold out. My guess is that if Notre Dame doesn't make the tournament that there will be plenty of tickets available on the secondary market for reasonable prices. That being said, barring an epic collapse, UNO will be in the tournament.

Well, nothing is ever really "sold out". In my case, that will be particularly true if Michigan would somehow end up there, as well.

There is a score to settle.

UNO fans love the movie "Kill Bill". Just substitute the word "Michigan" for "Bill". It's one matter to get beat up on by them for years. It's quite another to get jobbed in the tourney by "the goal that wasn't a goal". A goal that wouldn't have been a goal, had we been playing somebody like, say, Robert Morris or, Air Force, in that tourney. And, Michigan went on to play in the title game, to boot.

Makes my blood boil all over again. Am I butt hurt and won't let it go? **** right I am! We want Wolverine heads on a platter.

 

[bigblue_dl]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

What is the driving distance that the NCAA says that teams will take a flight? I thought it was 500 miles, but I don't completely recall.

I ask, because there are some interesting distances between schools and regionals:

Michigan Tech to Fargo: 456 miles
Michigan Tech to South Bend: 509 miles

Minnesota-Duluth to Fargo: 239 miles
Minnesota-Duluth to South Bend: 568 miles

Nebraska-Omaha to Fargo: 424 miles
Nebraska-Omaha to South Bend: 551 miles

Minnesota State to Fargo: 272 miles
Minnesota State to South Bend: 531 miles

Minnesota to South Bend: 508 miles

Bowling Green to South Bend: 164 miles

These numbers could end up having some impact when the NCAA applies the "a flight is a flight" reasoning that they have stated in the past.

 

[Siouxfaninseattle]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

What is the driving distance that the NCAA says that teams will take a flight? I thought it was 500 miles, but I don't completely recall.

I ask, because there are some interesting distances between schools and regionals:

Michigan Tech to Fargo: 456 miles
Michigan Tech to South Bend: 509 miles

Minnesota-Duluth to Fargo: 239 miles
Minnesota-Duluth to South Bend: 568 miles

Nebraska-Omaha to Fargo: 424 miles
Nebraska-Omaha to South Bend: 551 miles

Minnesota State to Fargo: 272 miles
Minnesota State to South Bend: 531 miles

Minnesota to South Bend: 508 miles

Bowling Green to South Bend: 164 miles

These numbers could end up having some impact when the NCAA applies the "a flight is a flight" reasoning that they have stated in the past.

I think it is 400 miles. I would like to see them forget about the "a flight is a flight" and maintain bracket integrity.

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

UNO fans love the movie "Kill Bill". Just substitute the word "Michigan" for "Bill".

I laughed

I think it is 400 miles. I would like to see them forget about the "a flight is a flight" and maintain bracket integrity.

I'm pretty certain it's 400, that's what I've been working off for my women's bracketology where flight/non flight actually matters.

 

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

What are eveyone's thoughts on the QWB? With so much "power" in a conference like the NCHC, it seems strange that they get to compound it with circular increases in their QWB.

 

[Tipsy McStagger]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

What are eveyone's thoughts on the QWB? With so much "power" in a conference like the NCHC, it seems strange that they get to compound it with circular increases in their QWB.

How is it circular if the bonus is added after the fact? Sounds like sour grapes. Should the NCHC teams not get the bonus because there are too many teams high up in the rankings?

 

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

How is it circular if the bonus is added after the fact? Sounds like sour grapes. Should the NCHC teams not get the bonus because there are too many teams high up in the rankings?

In example, if UNO is ranked 10th before QWB and UND IS 2nd, and UND gets awarded a bonus for beating UNO twice, if those QWB push UND to first, does the QWB that UNO gets change to the value for first instead of 2nd? If that causes UNO to mov up to 9th it's circular. And with all the NCHC teams clustered, it can really compound quickly. If I'm wrong please let me know, but that's what makes sense to me.

 

[Tipsy McStagger]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

In example, if UNO is ranked 10th before QWB and UND IS 2nd, and UND gets awarded a bonus for beating UNO twice, if those QWB push UND to first, does the QWB that UNO gets change to the value for first instead of 2nd? If that causes UNO to mov up to 9th it's circular. And with all the NCHC teams clustered, it can really compound quickly. If I'm wrong please let me know, but that's what makes sense to me.

The bonus is added after:
In addition, a quality wins bonus based on wins against the top 20 teams is added to a team's RPI.