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The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

  • Thread starter Thread starter Priceless
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Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

LTsatch said:
Reenacting the liberation of the Pacific in WWII?
Click to expand...

No, actually it's a whole Far East tour of some Christian Conferences as part of my church fellowship. But, we did see all the WW2 sites on Oahu, and looked at the Battlefield of the Pacific facility today, as well as a picnic on the beach where the US made landfall when liberating Guam.

No ice here.....

And, it makes a few hockey games seem not very important.
 
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

the CHN projection tool is working completely , you can run all the scenarios .
 
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Early Saturday morning. I can't run all the scenarios, but I suspect at this point that Notre Dame is in, but everyone else below them in the PWR could still end up 12th and lose to a tourney upset.

Right now, best guess:
#1s - Minny, BC, Union, Ferris
#2s - Wisco, St Cloud, Quinn, Lowell
#3s - NoDame, Prov, NoDak, Cornell
#4s - Mankato, Vermont, Colgate, AHA Champ

StPaul: Minnesota v AHA Champ (1v16); St Cloud v NoDak (6v11)
Worcester: BC v Colgate (2v15); Quinnipiac v Providence (7v10)
Bridgeport: Union v Vermont (3v14); Lowell v Cornell (8v12)
Cincinnati: Ferris v Mankato (4v13); Wisconsin v Notre Dame (5v9)

My reasoning would be that the #2 band is basically indistinguishable from each other. For the #3s, put NoDame in Cincy, NoDak. Wisco in Cincy, StCloud in StPaul all for attendance. Then, the rest falls out.

If the Committee goes all serpentine, then the only change needed is swap NoDame and NoDak or Lowell and StCloud.
 
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Numbers said:
Early Saturday morning. I can't run all the scenarios, but I suspect at this point that Notre Dame is in, but everyone else below them in the PWR could still end up 12th and lose to a tourney upset.

Right now, best guess:
#1s - Minny, BC, Union, Ferris
#2s - Wisco, St Cloud, Quinn, Lowell
#3s - NoDame, Prov, NoDak, Cornell
#4s - Mankato, Vermont, Colgate, AHA Champ

StPaul: Minnesota v AHA Champ (1v16); St Cloud v NoDak (6v11)
Worcester: BC v Colgate (2v15); Quinnipiac v Providence (7v10)
Bridgeport: Union v Vermont (3v14); Lowell v Cornell (8v12)
Cincinnati: Ferris v Mankato (4v13); Wisconsin v Notre Dame (5v9)

My reasoning would be that the #2 band is basically indistinguishable from each other. For the #3s, put NoDame in Cincy, NoDak. Wisco in Cincy, StCloud in StPaul all for attendance. Then, the rest falls out.

If the Committee goes all serpentine, then the only change needed is swap NoDame and NoDak or Lowell and StCloud.
Click to expand...

You would need to swap Mankato with someone else..
 
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Hi all. My tablet decided to brick last night so this is my first, and possible only, chance to get online. At this point, Providence and North Dakota should be in with wins tonight, but with the autobids still lurking out there they have to keep winning to make sure they make it.

In:
Minnesota
Boston College
Union
Ferris State
Wisconsin
Quinnipiac
St Cloud
Lowell
Notre Dame

Bubble (* = in w/ win tonight without autobid upsets)
Providence*
North Dakota*
Cornell
MSU Mankato
Vermont
Colgate
Michigan
Northeastern

It might be possible for Yale, WMU or UMD to go on a winning streak and get in without the autobid but I don't see it happening. New Hampshire simply doesn't have enough games left.

Everyone else is playing for the autobid.


If the home teams win tonight in the ECAC, the chance of that conference stealing a bid is gone. That leaves the AHA (16), BTHC, LTHC, WCHA and Hockey East. HEA will likely also have 3 of 4, so the odds of that conference taking a spot from the top 15 is also diminished. The odds are best among the WCHA and LTHC which only have two teams each in tournament position right now.
 
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Sunday night while Clarkson and Cornell are at first intermission:

I might try to live blog the bubble situation as results come in.

My impression at this point is that Big10, AHA, NCHC, HEA(vermont), ECAC (Clarkson) and WCHA can all have upset winners.

So, the best we can do is say this:
The top 10 in the current PWR are likely safe. The only way something strange might happen is if Michigan wins 2 rounds and loses the B10 final to OSU/MSU. In that case, StCloud might be out if all the tourneys come in with upsets.

We can say for sure that it will be - Minnesota(1), BC(2), Union(3).
Last #1 seed is up for grabs between UW, Quinn, NoDame, Lowell, maybe Providence.

And, we know at this point that NoDakota, Mankato, and Cornell all need one more win to assure themselves of a place (excepting the parlay wins the tourneys). Which means that Northeastern is still alive as I type this. And, in fact, even in the event that Cornell and NoDakota both win today, Northeastern still appears to have a slight chance. They will be big Bowling Green fans next week.
 
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Cornell over Colgate.

Also, it has dawned on me that NoDak is the only higher seed in NCHC left playing. Therefore, even if UND loses to CC today (leading 4-2 right now), NCHC will still get 2 spots. So, UND losing doesn't help bubble teams as much as I thought.

I would say at this point that Northeastern is all but done. There would be a slight chance that Union and Quinn wins over Colgate and Cornell could help them back into the field, but I am not sure of that.

New Hampshire's RPI is still low enough that they have to win.

So, to me, the bubble appears (someone help us when the YATC and Pairwise Predictor come out tonight), that Minnesota through StCloud are in.

After that, Mankato and or Michigan losing in their next games could open a window for teams on the bubble (Cornell or Colgate if they lose next week... Northeastern perhaps if all of those 4 lose).

Vermont, while not playing, are vulnerable yet. eg, UND wins today, loses NCHC final. Then, UND probably ahead of Vermont, AND the NCHC steals a bid. Colgate or Cornell win the ECAC. Then Vermont is out).

Pairwise... Still crazy, even without the TUC.....:)
 
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Numbers said:
Cornell over Colgate.

Also, it has dawned on me that NoDak is the only higher seed in NCHC left playing. Therefore, even if UND loses to CC today (leading 4-2 right now), NCHC will still get 2 spots. So, UND losing doesn't help bubble teams as much as I thought.

I would say at this point that Northeastern is all but done. There would be a slight chance that Union and Quinn wins over Colgate and Cornell could help them back into the field, but I am not sure of that.

New Hampshire's RPI is still low enough that they have to win.

So, to me, the bubble appears (someone help us when the YATC and Pairwise Predictor come out tonight), that Minnesota through StCloud are in.

After that, Mankato and or Michigan losing in their next games could open a window for teams on the bubble (Cornell or Colgate if they lose next week... Northeastern perhaps if all of those 4 lose).

Vermont, while not playing, are vulnerable yet. eg, UND wins today, loses NCHC final. Then, UND probably ahead of Vermont, AND the NCHC steals a bid. Colgate or Cornell win the ECAC. Then Vermont is out).

Pairwise... Still crazy, even without the TUC.....:)
Click to expand...

Ran the numbers with UNH winning friday, Union and Quin. winning. Northeastern somehow moves from 41 to 44 , how is that possible ending up in 14 th
 
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

unh1982 said:
Ran the numbers with UNH winning friday, Union and Quin. winning. Northeastern somehow moves from 41 to 44 , how is that possible ending up in 14 th
Click to expand...

RPI is really tight from Vermont to Northeastern, with UNH an outlier who wins a compare based only on CommOpp and h2h. try it with UNH losing Friday (Lowell and Prov win). With Quinn and Union winning, that lowers Colgate and Cornell just enough to slide Northeastern back in.
 
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

The PairWise predictor on USCHO will go live as soon as the Air Force-Niagara game goes final. Of course, that might be a while. 3-3 very late in the 3rd.

ETA: Overtime #1 begins after an intermission.
 
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Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Priceless said:
The PairWise predictor on USCHO will go live as soon as the Air Force-Niagara game goes final. Of course, that might be a while. 3-3 very late in the 3rd.

ETA: Overtime #1 begins after an intermission.
Click to expand...
It will probably be a 3OT game just to keep everyone on ice. :p
 
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Some more thoughts about North Dakota. CHN doesn't have the NCHC Final Four in their database to change results, so no way to know for sure, but it appears that if Miami were to defeat them, they could easily end up out of the tourney. Such a defeat might (emphasis might) drop them all the way to 18th in RPI, and the cut line would go to 14 at that point, too. Again, a UND defeat does not help Colgate or Cornell or Northeastern, because the cut line moves also, with the NCHC guaranteed an upset winner at that point, so this relates to NoDak only..
 
Numbers said:
We can say for sure that it will be - Minnesota(1), BC(2), Union(3).
Last #1 seed is up for grabs between UW, Quinn, NoDame, Lowell, maybe Providence.
Click to expand...

Did you forget Ferris, or is there really no way for them to secure the #4 overall? (He asks, even though he could just go test it out on CHN)
 
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

If Union and QU win next week, will Colgate and Cornell still make it? What about unranked conference upsets. Are those factored in?
 
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Roughly, I think the top 10 are in. The only threat is to StCloud if Michigan loses the final to OSU/MSU and there are upsets everywhere.

Michigan - needs at least one win to be sure, but has lots of chance even if they lose to PennState.
Mankato - needs to beat at least BowlingGreen, because the RPI hit is too severe if they don't. Then, it's ok to lose to Ferris, but it might not be to lose to Anchorage.
North Dakota - beat Miami, then we will see.
Vermont - Root for Colgate and/or Cornell to lose, and North Dakota to lose (they are above the 14 cut line, so ND losing helps them).
Colgate/Cornell - need to win at least once, maybe twice
NewHampshire - needs to win the HEA
Northeastern - needs Colgate and Cornell to lose
Everyone else still playing needs the auto-bid

These are "best guess". I have not actually run all the possibilities.
 
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

ExileOnDaytonStreet said:
Did you forget Ferris, or is there really no way for them to secure the #4 overall? (He asks, even though he could just go test it out on CHN)
Click to expand...

Forgot them. Sorry. Very good chance for them. Need to win WCHA. But Anchorge's low rank hurts them. Providence or Lowell can get more RPI bounce, plus QWB points. But it sure is still possible. Sorry again.
 
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Dutchman said:
If Union and QU win next week, will Colgate and Cornell still make it? What about unranked conference upsets. Are those factored in?
Click to expand...

If Un and QU win, then Northeastern jumps both Colgate and Cornell, so it becomes very dicey. More so if there are upsets.
 
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