The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

[komey1]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Can it be concluded that the NCHC, while a good (great) idea on paper has been a disaster in terms of NCAA selection?

I think we need a couple years to be conclusive, but early returns show that is a possible outcome. I think quite a few people saw this coming too, as the teams woud cannibalize each other in conference play and knock each other out.

 

[Numbers]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

I think we need a couple years to be conclusive, but early returns show that is a possible outcome. I think quite a few people saw this coming too, as the teams woud cannibalize each other in conference play and knock each other out.

Good post, Komey. And, to add a little....

In this case, the year was shot for NCHC before the conference play really started. It is the fault of poor OOC play that only St Cloud is currently in NCAA tournament position.

That said, I think it likely that NCHC gets 2 teams in at the end of the season (this without considering the possibility of an auto-bid upset).

 

[Priceless]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Good post, Komey. And, to add a little....

In this case, the year was shot for NCHC before the conference play really started. It is the fault of poor OOC play that only St Cloud is currently in NCAA tournament position.

That said, I think it likely that NCHC gets 2 teams in at the end of the season (this without considering the possibility of an auto-bid upset).

Buccigross just put North Dakota at #9 in his rankings. I guess tying #38 is more impressive than I thought.

 

[Numbers]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Today's pairwise
1 Minnesota
2 Boston College
3 Quinnipiac
4 Union
5 Ferris State
6 Providence
7 Northeastern
8 St. Cloud State
9 Mass.-Lowell
10 Wisconsin
11 Notre Dame
12 Clarkson
13 Cornell
14 Yale
15 Michigan
--
16 Vermont
17 Minnesota State
18 Maine
19 North Dakota
20 Colgate
21 Western Michigan
22 New Hampshire
23 Denver
24 Bowling Green
25 Minnesota-Duluth
26 Brown
27 Alaska-Anchorage
28 Air Force
29 Ohio State
30 Miami
31 Nebraska-Omaha
32 Lake Superior
33 Northern Michigan
34 Rensselaer
35 St. Lawrence
36 Alaska-Fairbanks
37 Mercyhurst
38 Bemidji State
39 Bentley
40 Michigan State
41 Merrimack
42 Michigan Tech
43 Harvard
44 Massachusetts
45 Connecticut
46 Boston University
47 Canisius
48 Dartmouth
49 RIT
50 Princeton
51 Colorado College
52 Penn State
53 Holy Cross
54 Robert Morris
55 American Int'l
56 Niagara
57 Sacred Heart
58 Alabama-Huntsville
59 Army

Putting teams into bands is going to prove crucial in today's bracketology.

1 seeds - Minnesota, Boston College, Quinnipiac, Union
2 seeds - Ferris State. Providence, Northesatern, St Cloud
3 seeds - Lowell, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Clarkson
4 seeds - Cornell, Yale, Michigan, Air Force

#1 Minnesota and #14 Yale are hosts so they get placed first.
Then place BC in Worcester, Quinnipiac in Bridgeport (problem 1) and Union in Cincinnati.
The 2 seeds follow - Ferris in Cincy, Providence in Bridgeport, Northeastern in Worcester and St Cloud in St Paul. So far so good.
The 3 seeds go Lowell in St Paul, Wisconsin in Worcester, Notre Dame in Bridgeport (problem 2) and Clarkson in Cincy.
Yale already represents the 4 seeds in Bridgeport. Air Force is the bottom seed so they go to St Paul, Michigan to Worcester and Cornell to Cincinnati (problem 3).

That gives us a bracket that looks like:

[B]Bridgeport (Yale)	Worcester (Holy Cross)		Cincinnati (Miami)	St Paul (Minnesota)[/B]
Quinnipiac		Boston College			Union			Minnesota
Providence		Northeastern			Ferris State		St Cloud
Notre Dame		Wisconsin			Clarkson		Lowell
Yale			Michigan			Cornell			Air Force

Problems all over the place. Now, the rules state that if a conference gets five teams in, intraconference first-round games are allowed. Both Hockey East and the ECAC have five teams so technically this can go forward. However, one look at the Cincinnati bracket shows it will be an attendance wasteland. We can do better, but it is going to require more than a little tinkering.

Minnesota and Yale are both hosts, so can't be moved. There are two #1 seeds from the ECAC so the only possible team to go Bridgeport is BC. Quinnipiac goes to Worcester. Notre Dame and Clarkson trade places to resolve the problem with 3 seeds which leaves us with a dilemma with the 4 seeds. Cornell can't go to either Cincinnati or Worcester so the Big Red have to go to St Paul. #16 Air Force would then be slotted with #2, but that spot is already taken by Yale. They can go to Cincinnati, but looking at attendance, Michigan AND Notre Dame in Ohio is too good to pass up. The Falcons fly to Worcester.

That gives us our final bracket of:

[B]Bridgeport (Yale)	Worcester (Holy Cross)		Cincinnati (Miami)	St Paul (Minnesota)[/B]
Boston College		Quinnipac			Union			Minnesota
Northeastern		Providence			Ferris State		St Cloud
Wisconsin		Clarkson			Notre Dame		Lowell
Yale			Air Force			Michigan		Cornell

Priceless,

I believe this exact bracket situation might be a test case for THIS committee. Minnesota (overall #1 by a large margin), plays Cornell rather than Air Force in the Region Semis because of the "no intraconference play" rule. As you pointed out, the 5-team exception could be invoked here, and Minnesota given the protection they may have "earned." Now, I am not saying the committee would do that (I doubt it, actually). Just saying that there is an rules interpretation which allows it.

Also, given that there is pretty much only conference play left (exceptions: Minnesota Cup, Beanpot and a few odd games), I strongly suspect that in the end, a few things will change:

ECAC: Right now, Cornell, Clarkson, Yale and Colgate are all on the bubble, with 3 of them in the field. I predict that only 2 of these eventually qualify, leaving ECAC with 4.

HE: Similar logic applies, with respect to Lowell, Notre Dame and Vermont. I predict that only 1 of these qualify, or that Providence or Northeastern will take a precipitous fall, and HE will end up with 4 teams in the tourney.

NCHC: With only conference games left, someone has to win those games. North Dakota, Western Michigan, Denver or UMD will make a 2nd half run and qualify. Most likely, NoDak based on past years' patterns.

WCHA: Same logic as NCHC. I think Mankato will qualify.

B1G: Wisconsin and Michigan will both hang on to their spots.

So, I think in the end we will see:
ECAC - 4; HEA - 4; B1G - 3; NCHC - 2; WCHA - 2; AHA - 1.

I say this simply based on the fact that someone has to win and lose all those conference games.

So, I think the final bracket will not be as difficult as today's would have been.

 

[WeAreNDHockey]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

However, one look at the Cincinnati bracket shows it will be an attendance wasteland. We can do better, but it is going to require more than a little tinkering.

Not that this is entirely a matter for this thread, but Cincinnati is going to be an attendance wasteland regardless of who gets placed there. Toledo was even with Miami and Notre Dame, and Toledo is a good two hours closer to me than is Cincinnati. As well, Fort Wayne was a wasteland, even with Miami and Michigan placed there. I suppose it's possible the most reasonably priced tickets for a regional in many years may prove to be a more positive factor than I believe it will be, but I really have my doubts. With Notre Dame and Michigan hardly locks based on their up and down seasons, and the chances for any of the Ohio schools resting on highly unlikely auto bids, I think the possibility exists that we may be looking at the smallest regional crowd the tournament has yet seen.

 

[sfo19]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Buccigross just put North Dakota at #9 in his rankings. I guess tying #38 is more impressive than I thought.

It's not about the tie, it's about who is playing well. North Dakota hasn't lost since the end of November. It's about giving credit where credit's due.

 

[sfo19]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Not that this is entirely a matter for this thread, but Cincinnati is going to be an attendance wasteland regardless of who gets placed there. Toledo was even with Miami and Notre Dame, and Toledo is a good two hours closer to me than is Cincinnati. As well, Fort Wayne was a wasteland, even with Miami and Michigan placed there. I suppose it's possible the most reasonably priced tickets for a regional in many years may prove to be a more positive factor than I believe it will be, but I really have my doubts. With Notre Dame and Michigan hardly locks based on their up and down seasons, and the chances for any of the Ohio schools resting on highly unlikely auto bids, I think the possibility exists that we may be looking at the smallest regional crowd the tournament has yet seen.

The NCAA knows this regional will be a disaster. My roommate and I have both received emails from an NCAA sales rep trying to sell us tickets...

We live in Minneapolis.

 

[komey1]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Priceless - Mercyhurst actually leads the AHA and would be the #1 seed.

 

[Numbers]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Priceless - Mercyhurst actually leads the AHA and would be the #1 seed.

He knows that. Priceless always chooses the highest ranked team in the PWR, rather than in the conference standings, in situations like this.

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Priceless,

I believe this exact bracket situation might be a test case for THIS committee. Minnesota (overall #1 by a large margin), plays Cornell rather than Air Force in the Region Semis because of the "no intraconference play" rule. As you pointed out, the 5-team exception could be invoked here, and Minnesota given the protection they may have "earned." Now, I am not saying the committee would do that (I doubt it, actually). Just saying that there is an rules interpretation which allows it.

Also, given that there is pretty much only conference play left (exceptions: Minnesota Cup, Beanpot and a few odd games), I strongly suspect that in the end, a few things will change:

ECAC: Right now, Cornell, Clarkson, Yale and Colgate are all on the bubble, with 3 of them in the field. I predict that only 2 of these eventually qualify, leaving ECAC with 4.

HE: Similar logic applies, with respect to Lowell, Notre Dame and Vermont. I predict that only 1 of these qualify, or that Providence or Northeastern will take a precipitous fall, and HE will end up with 4 teams in the tourney.

NCHC: With only conference games left, someone has to win those games. North Dakota, Western Michigan, Denver or UMD will make a 2nd half run and qualify. Most likely, NoDak based on past years' patterns.

WCHA: Same logic as NCHC. I think Mankato will qualify.

B1G: Wisconsin and Michigan will both hang on to their spots.

So, I think in the end we will see:
ECAC - 4; HEA - 4; B1G - 3; NCHC - 2; WCHA - 2; AHA - 1.

I say this simply based on the fact that someone has to win and lose all those conference games.

So, I think the final bracket will not be as difficult as today's would have been.

So the eastern conference teams will fall, because they all have to play each other. And the western conference teams will rise up, because they all have to play each other.

Got it.

 

[Tipsy McStagger]

Can it be concluded that the NCHC, while a good (great) idea on paper has been a disaster in terms of NCAA selection?

Absolutely, if you only focus on the PWR at the halfway point and also ignore the fact that UND and Denver lost a huge amount of talent in the offseason. Miami is the only surprise in the NCHC this season

 

[Numbers]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

So the eastern conference teams will fall, because they all have to play each other. And the western conference teams will rise up, because they all have to play each other.

Got it.

Yes, Tony. Because in the case of the Eastern Teams, if you assume that everyone stays where they are, then 5 teams have to win the majority of their games. It seems likely to me that this will not happen, and that it is far more likely that some team which so far has been playing well, will end up losing, because they have to play all the "highly ranked already" teams ahead of them.

On the other hand, in the West, if you assume that everyone stays where they are, then 8 or 9 teams have to lose half of their games. It seems likely to me that this will also not happen, and that it is more likely that NoDak, or Denver, or Mankato, or some UP school, goes on a run, because after all, they are going to play most of their games against teams that are not so "highly ranked" right now.

In short, it's an odds prediction. Out of 3 schools in the Eastern Conferences, it's likely that someone has a mediocre 2nd half, especially playing what looks like good competition.

Out of 4 schools in the Western Conferences, it's likely that someone will have a 'Good' 2nd half, especially taking advantage of what right now looks like "mediocre" competition.

In past years, when the PWR had a TUC component, this would have been even more true considering the conference tournaments. Someone out of those 5 teams in the HE and ECAC would lose a quarterfinal series, and have their RPI drop with 2 losses, plus their TUC record drop with 2 losses, and find themselves out of the tourney. With no TUC Cliff this year, teams with good RPIs will be more insulated in the conference tournament play. That's because a team like UND right now could go on a run and sweep their way to the NCHC final, only to lsoe to SCSU, and they might not get any QWB pts for their RPI because of who they would face in the NCHC tourney.

And, to guess the NCAA tourney, even leaving that prediction (of UND or someone getting hot in 2nd half, and Yale and NotreDame going cold 2nd half) out, consider the conference tourneys and the auto-bids.

Odds that there is an upset out-lier winner from HE or ECAC (when it would have to be 5th or lower in the regular conference play) are not so high.
Odds that an out-lier upsets in NCHC or WCHA: Very high when only the regular season champ is currently among the top 15 in the PWR.

 

[Stauber1]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

So the eastern conference teams will fall, because they all have to play each other. And the western conference teams will rise up, because they all have to play each other.

Got it.

Yes, Tony. Because in the case of the Eastern Teams, if you assume that everyone stays where they are, then 5 teams have to win the majority of their games. It seems likely to me that this will not happen, and that it is far more likely that some team which so far has been playing well, will end up losing, because they have to play all the "highly ranked already" teams ahead of them.

On the other hand, in the West, if you assume that everyone stays where they are, then 8 or 9 teams have to lose half of their games. It seems likely to me that this will also not happen, and that it is more likely that NoDak, or Denver, or Mankato, or some UP school, goes on a run, because after all, they are going to play most of their games against teams that are not so "highly ranked" right now.

In short, it's an odds prediction. Out of 3 schools in the Eastern Conferences, it's likely that someone has a mediocre 2nd half, especially playing what looks like good competition.

Out of 4 schools in the Western Conferences, it's likely that someone will have a 'Good' 2nd half, especially taking advantage of what right now looks like "mediocre" competition.

In past years, when the PWR had a TUC component, this would have been even more true considering the conference tournaments. Someone out of those 5 teams in the HE and ECAC would lose a quarterfinal series, and have their RPI drop with 2 losses, plus their TUC record drop with 2 losses, and find themselves out of the tourney. With no TUC Cliff this year, teams with good RPIs will be more insulated in the conference tournament play. That's because a team like UND right now could go on a run and sweep their way to the NCHC final, only to lsoe to SCSU, and they might not get any QWB pts for their RPI because of who they would face in the NCHC tourney.

And, to guess the NCAA tourney, even leaving that prediction (of UND or someone getting hot in 2nd half, and Yale and NotreDame going cold 2nd half) out, consider the conference tourneys and the auto-bids.

Odds that there is an upset out-lier winner from HE or ECAC (when it would have to be 5th or lower in the regular conference play) are not so high.
Odds that an out-lier upsets in NCHC or WCHA: Very high when only the regular season champ is currently among the top 15 in the PWR.

I was going to give a less detailed response, but essentially the same sentiment.

Numbers has gone out on a bit of a limb with some fairly specific predictions, but statistically speaking we can expect things to normalize somewhat between the conferences. It is true that just as it is possible that 1 or 2 ECAC teams may drop out of the tournament it is possible that the ECAC (or Hockey East) may add a team to their roster of tournament teams. However, the most likely scenario is for the discrepancy between conferences to even out to some degree.

To go out a bit on my own limb (although I don't think all that much), I will be quite surprised if we see a #3 or #4 seed win it all this year. There are so many solid teams in the top 6-8 right now; a 3rd or 4th seed will have a very daunting gauntlet in front of them.

 

[manurespreader]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

I agree with the above sentiment, and if North Dakota is playing so well, how did they struggle so mightily with Bemidji.?
If I was an ECAC team barely in, aka yale or clarkson, I'd be real worried about Colgate. In fact maybe Bucigross ought to have picked Colgate to be number 9.

 

[SJHovey]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

I agree with the above sentiment, and if North Dakota is playing so well, how did they struggle so mightily with Bemidji.?

I don't think you saw those games if you thought UND "struggled mightily" with BSU. Granted, they tied the first night, in Bemidji, but pretty much dominated the game. Sometimes you just have to tip your hat to the other team. BSU has played about 8-10 overtime games this year, so they can play you pretty tight. Candidly, UND hasn't got the skill up front to routinely blow teams out, even the poorer teams. They need to win a lot of 3-2 games.

I don't know how well UND is playing. The current nine game unbeaten streak was against some pretty weak competition, although the sweep at WMU is looking better all the time. They are certainly playing a lot better than they did before Thanksgiving. Probably a lot to do with improving health to their forwards, and the newcomers learning the system.

We'll find out how well they're playing these next 10 games. I'd take a 6-3-1 record and then take our chances in the playoffs. UND is in the middle of a pretty tight RPI grouping, so some wins will bump them up, but I suspect it's probably going to take a pretty deep NCHC playoff run, if not a tournament victory to get this team in.

 

[Numbers]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

I was going to give a less detailed response, but essentially the same sentiment.

Numbers has gone out on a bit of a limb with some fairly specific predictions, but statistically speaking we can expect things to normalize somewhat between the conferences. It is true that just as it is possible that 1 or 2 ECAC teams may drop out of the tournament it is possible that the ECAC (or Hockey East) may add a team to their roster of tournament teams. However, the most likely scenario is for the discrepancy between conferences to even out to some degree.

To go out a bit on my own limb (although I don't think all that much), I will be quite surprised if we see a #3 or #4 seed win it all this year. There are so many solid teams in the top 6-8 right now; a 3rd or 4th seed will have a very daunting gauntlet in front of them.

Thank you Stauber. Also, I want to emphasize that my examples of who might rise or fall have are not intended to say "I think this team is better than it has been playing so far....." My examples are really not team-specific. My only point is that statistically, the ECAC and HEA have done well so far this year, and, given the OOC records, likely have a collection of 'better' teams than the west. However, in conference play, the net result is .500 for the whole conference, so the HEA and ECAC as a whole league are going to have a 'worse' 2nd half than 1st half. And, NCHC and WCHA will have a 'better' 2nd half than 1st half.

So, please don't anyone take my comments as a "West is better than East". I don't mean them that way at all.

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

I know you weren't haha I was just picking on you.

 

[Biddco]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Can it be concluded that the NCHC, while a good (great) idea on paper has been a disaster in terms of NCAA selection?

The non-conference record of the conference is really what is bringing it down.

 

[Almington]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Thank you Stauber. Also, I want to emphasize that my examples of who might rise or fall have are not intended to say "I think this team is better than it has been playing so far....." My examples are really not team-specific. My only point is that statistically, the ECAC and HEA have done well so far this year, and, given the OOC records, likely have a collection of 'better' teams than the west. However, in conference play, the net result is .500 for the whole conference, so the HEA and ECAC as a whole league are going to have a 'worse' 2nd half than 1st half. And, NCHC and WCHA will have a 'better' 2nd half than 1st half.

So, please don't anyone take my comments as a "West is better than East". I don't mean them that way at all.

If two eastern teams who are just on the inside of the bubble play, someone has to lose and runs the risk of falling to the outside of the bubble. When two western teams who are on the outside of the bubble play, someone has to win, and if they win enough games they my be able to displace the eastern team who has to lose.

Because of the someone has to win AND lose, conference games tend to reduce the dominance of a single conference, athough given the current RPI weightings, the western teams have quite a uphill struggle.

 

[Dirty]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

The non-conference record of the conference is really what is bringing it down.

Simple solution, kick UNO and CC out of the league.