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The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

Two University of Colorado professors, one from Boulder and one from Denver, have put together an Electoral College forecast model to predict who will win the 2012 presidential election and the result is bad news for Barack Obama. The model points to a Mitt Romney victory in 2012.

Ken Bickers from CU-Boulder and Michael Berry from CU-Denver, the two political science professors who devised the prediction model, say that it has correctly forecast every winner of the electoral race since 1980.

"Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble," Bickers said in a press statement.

To predict the race's outcome, the model uses economic indicators from all 50 states and it shows 320 electoral votes for Romney and 218 for Obama, according to The Associated Press. The model also suggests that Romney will win every state currently considered a swing state which includes Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Colorado.

The professors' model shows a very different picture than what current data suggests. Currently, The Huffington Post's Election Dashboard shows Obama with 257 electoral votes to Romney's 191 with only six "tossup" states including: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia.

Berry cautions that just because the model has worked in the past, doesn't mean it will work this time. "As scholars and pundits well know, each election has unique elements that could lead one or more states to behave in ways in a particular election that the model is unable to correctly predict," Berry said in a statement. Some of those factors include the timeframe of the current economic data used in the study (the data used was taken five months before the November election, but Berry and Bickers plan to update it with more current data come September) as well as tight races. States that are very close to a 50-50 split, the authors warn, can fall in an unexpected direction.

According to current data from The Huffington Post Election Dashboard, there are at least 13 states that are either dead heats or within a handful of percentage points in either direction.

Currently HuffPost's Pollster, tracking 403 national polls, estimates Obama leading the tight race nationally with 46.3 percent to Romney's 45.2 percent.
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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/...d=maing-grid7|main5|dl1|sec1_lnk3&pLid=195989
 
Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

unofan said:
I'd think you'd want a CPA or someone with an accounting degree, then. An MBA is simply a degree in networking.
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Accountants only know how to add and subtract. You need to be able to sell your product.
 
Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

ScoobyDoo said:
I suppose. It is true that Mitt hates Hispanics, African Americans, and women. Otherwise it'd be a 50 state landslide.
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Hey now, in 1978, God changed his mind about black people. ;):p

I find it so funny that you make such an issue about race and gender. Perhaps you're the racist/sexist?
 
Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

FlagDUDE08 said:
Thank you for reminding me of another reason why I went for Dubya in 2004: He's the first and only President to receive an MBA. The only other President to attend business school? JFK. In indebted times like these, we ought to look towards their example. From 2004 to 2007, the budget deficit shrunk by large amounts. Why? With the lower tax rates, people were more willing to partake in investments that are generally taxed.

One interesting tidbit I found: the 1969 budget had a $3b surplus, compared to a $25b deficit in the previous year. Taxes didn't change, and the USA was in the middle of a large police action known as Vietnam. I wonder what happened...
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I suspect he showed up the first day in shorts and sneakers, grateful his dad got him a position in the NBA to stay out of the war.
 
Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

pirate said:
I suspect he showed up the first day in shorts and sneakers, grateful his dad got him a position in the NBA to stay out of the war.
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<iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/ueywqUBW3oM" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>a
 
Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

pirate said:
I suspect he showed up the first day in shorts and sneakers, grateful his dad got him a position in the NBA to stay out of the war.
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And that flipped the budget around $28 billion? That's quite a maneuver!
 
Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

Saw the rare good article today from GOP advisor Matt Murphy telling Mittens to use the convention to pivot away from the base and towards the middle, because he's acting like its still the primaries and he's struggling to put Rick Santorum away.

Thinking back, a lot of people consider George W Bush to be a dumb @ ss, rightfully so, but one thing people forget is his campaigning skills. During both elections, he made a big effort to reach out to people not in his base (hispanics and women for example) while simultaneously keeping up with his base of old people, military vets, and religious fundamentalists.

Murphy's argument is that picking Ryan still does nothing in the form of broadening your coalition, since its doubtful either women (abortion flap) or those under 55 (who take it in the shorts with his budget) are going to flock to the ticket now. Now perhaps that doesn't matter as VP nominees don't tend to change things too much, but it appears hard righties have taken over the platform too, so I'll be real curious to see if there's any attempt to move to the center or if he's going to double down on the hope that the 2010 electorate is the same one that shows up in 2012.
 
Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

Rover said:
Saw the rare good article today from GOP advisor Matt Murphy telling Mittens to use the convention to pivot away from the base and towards the middle, because he's acting like its still the primaries and he's struggling to put Rick Santorum away.

Thinking back, a lot of people consider George W Bush to be a dumb @ ss, rightfully so, but one thing people forget is his campaigning skills. During both elections, he made a big effort to reach out to people not in his base (hispanics and women for example) while simultaneously keeping up with his base of old people, military vets, and religious fundamentalists.

Murphy's argument is that picking Ryan still does nothing in the form of broadening your coalition, since its doubtful either women (abortion flap) or those under 55 (who take it in the shorts with his budget) are going to flock to the ticket now. Now perhaps that doesn't matter as VP nominees don't tend to change things too much, but it appears hard righties have taken over the platform too, so I'll be real curious to see if there's any attempt to move to the center or if he's going to double down on the hope that the 2010 electorate is the same one that shows up in 2012.
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Going too much for the middle was John McCain's problem, as he pretty much abandoned his base, so no hard-nosed conservatives wanted to vote for him.
 
Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

FlagDUDE08 said:
Going too much for the middle was John McCain's problem, as he pretty much abandoned his base, so no hard-nosed conservatives wanted to vote for him.
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Picking Sarah Pailin was going to the middle? I would say the opposite. He was in the middle and moved far right by picking her and stayed far right from that point on... thus losing a lot of the moderate vote.
 
Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

Rover said:
Saw the rare good article today from GOP advisor Matt Murphy telling Mittens to use the convention to pivot away from the base and towards the middle, because he's acting like its still the primaries and he's struggling to put Rick Santorum away.

Thinking back, a lot of people consider George W Bush to be a dumb @ ss, rightfully so, but one thing people forget is his campaigning skills. During both elections, he made a big effort to reach out to people not in his base (hispanics and women for example) while simultaneously keeping up with his base of old people, military vets, and religious fundamentalists.

Murphy's argument is that picking Ryan still does nothing in the form of broadening your coalition, since its doubtful either women (abortion flap) or those under 55 (who take it in the shorts with his budget) are going to flock to the ticket now. Now perhaps that doesn't matter as VP nominees don't tend to change things too much, but it appears hard righties have taken over the platform too, so I'll be real curious to see if there's any attempt to move to the center or if he's going to double down on the hope that the 2010 electorate is the same one that shows up in 2012.
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"W" may or may not have been a "dumbass." But since he had higher grades at Yale and better SAT scores, what does that make Thurston Howell III? I know, "presidential."

"Do you know who I am?"
 
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Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

FlagDUDE08 said:
Going too much for the middle was John McCain's problem, as he pretty much abandoned his base, so no hard-nosed conservatives wanted to vote for him.
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Yeah, going to the middle was his problem. Sure, keep telling yourself that. That's why I was all set to vote for him until he picked Palin as his running mate.
 
Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

FlagDUDE08 said:
Accountants only know how to add and subtract. You need to be able to sell your product.
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I thought one of the biggest problems with government was that every politician is already essentially a used car salesman?

Besides, you've made it perfectly clear government does nothing but fark things up. Why do we need a salesperson to sell us that?
 
Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

unofan said:
I thought one of the biggest problems with government was that every politician is already essentially a used car salesman?

Besides, you've made it perfectly clear government does nothing but fark things up. Why do we need a salesperson to sell us that?
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Because any normal person would realise the inefficiencies.
 
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