The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

[5mn_Major]

Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

Interesting findings in a WaPo poll. Among other results: 74% of us support voter ID laws. Which I'm pretty sure is outside the margin of error. Strong support, incidentally, among the elderly and the poor.

http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2012/08/14/why-do-voters-back-voter-id-laws-common-sense-fraud/

Here's the actual break out of the poll:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/page/...g/release_116.xml?uuid=E1kPqOQZEeGJ93biOpgtBg

I would also predict that polls would show that Americans overwhelmingly feel that "we should do all that is necessary to ensure that all American citizens have a chance to vote". BOTH allowing everyone to vote and addressing voter fraud in theory are important.

Yet while voter turnout is materially affected by voter restriction laws...voter fraud will not be impacted hardly at all, because there are almost no existing cases of it...leaving such laws as just restricting voter turnout:

New database of US voter fraud finds no evidence that photo ID laws are needed

First of a series of articles, Who Can Vote: a News21 investigation of voting rights in America

A new nationwide analysis of 2,068 alleged election-fraud cases since 2000 shows that while fraud has occurred, the rate is infinitesimal, and in-person voter impersonation on Election Day, which prompted 37 state legislatures to enact or consider tough voter ID laws, is virtually non-existent.

In an exhaustive public records search, reporters from the investigative reporting projecdt News21 sent thousands of requests to elections officers in all 50 states, asking for every case of fraudulent activity including registration fraud, absentee ballot fraud, vote buying, false election counts, campaign fraud, casting an ineligible vote, voting twice, voter impersonation fraud and intimidation.

Analysis of the resulting comprehensive News21 election fraud database turned up 10 cases of voter impersonation. With 146 million registered voters in the United States during that time, those 10 cases represent one out of about every 15 million prospective voters.

“Voter fraud at the polls is an insignificant aspect of American elections,” said elections expert David Schultz, professor of public policy at Hamline University School of Business in St. Paul, Minn.

http://openchannel.nbcnews.com/_new...nds-no-evidence-that-photo-id-laws-are-needed

 

[joecct]

Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

Since when did lying become socially acceptable??

 

[unofan]

Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

Perhaps. But how do we know either way? Should we just take it on faith? Or should we put common sense safeguards in place to try to ensure that people who are voting are properly registered, live in the precinct in which they're attempting to vote and are who they say they are? No, certainly not. That would be racist!

Again, it's not the Photo ID per se. It's the implementation and impact of it that causes the issues.

If you're willing to spend the extra money so that it's just as easy to get the free photo ID in downtown Chicago as it is some rural farm county, then by all means.

 

[FreshFish]

Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

Probably because it's not a fundamental right to board an airplane.

I never would have expected you to say that people should be allowed to buy guns without showing a photo ID. I'm not sure that even the NRA has gone that far!

 

[FreshFish]

Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

Again, it's not the Photo ID per se. It's the implementation and impact of it that causes the issues.

If you're willing to spend the extra money so that it's just as easy to get the free photo ID in downtown Chicago as it is some rural farm county, then by all means.

then we can agree here. that's nice.

 

[FreshFish]

Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

I have yet to meet anyone that's for it that can show any news story, court case, or other solid evidence that voter fraud actually occured in their jurisdiction. It's a scare tactic line of BS that I don't buy at all.

Well, technically it wasn't voter fraud since he admitted what he did before he took the ballot; there was that white guy in Colorado who claimed to be Eric Holder and was given a ballot....

I posted the link earlir.

 

[SJHovey]

Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

Again, it's not the Photo ID per se. It's the implementation and impact of it that causes the issues.

If you're willing to spend the extra money so that it's just as easy to get the free photo ID in downtown Chicago as it is some rural farm county, then by all means.

I've lived in both a major metropolitan area, and rural farm country. It's actually easier in the metro area. In rural areas you first have the problem that there is probably only one office, and it's located in a town miles from yours. Second, it's usually only open a couple of days a week, or only for just a few hours because of the very low traffic numbers. I can't tell you how many times I've gone to get my drivers license renewed only to recall that the office is only open M-W, 8:30-12:00 a.m.

I'm not necessarily in favor of all the voter id proposals, and certainly oppose all these attempts to amend state constitutions, but I also believe the whole "it's too hard to get an id" argument is as thin as, if not thinner than the voter fraud issue. I've seen the same people we're worried about not getting an id spend all afternoon in line to buy cheese curds, a deep fat fried pork chop on a stick, and score a free yardstick at the local fair.

 

[FreshFish]

Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

In many potential conflict of interest situations, you hear people say, it's not enough to be technically correct, you also have to avoid the appearance of impropriety.

Whether voter fraud actually exists (there's plenty of evidence that it does occur), or how widespread or how frequently it occurs (a much more debatable proposition), it seems to me that these arguments are missing the more important point, which is that people really want to have confidence in the integrity of the electoral process.

The very existence of these proposed laws indicates that quite a few people are concerned about the integrity of the electoral process, about the appearance of appropriate propriety, and I see no reasonable way to deny that concern, nor any good reason to assuage it, provided that reasonable safeguards and procedures are put in place.

 

[FreshFish]

Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

Speaking about how arguing over details can cause us to overlook something really important in the bigger picture......

I've heard people arguing over whether we should cut defense spending, or maintain it at a certain level, or increase it, and I think there is a bigger picture question we need to ask first, after which the answer to the funding question will follow.

Can we stipulate that in many places, our infrastructure is old and outdated and in need of repair?

Assuming that is the case, doesn't it seem equally likely that much of our military equipment also is old and outdated and in need of an upgrade?

Rather than argue about the amount we spend on defense, doesn't it make more sense to say, first, what is the role of the military in our international relations? What kind of equipment and personnel do we need to support those roles? how important are these priorities relative to other important priorities? and how do we balance them out?


Many people forget that it was President Dwight Eisenhower, former general, who coined the term "military-industrial complex" to describe the incestuous relationships among government procurement officials, defense contractors, and lobbyists for the same; it was Eisenhower who warned us to beware the seduction of fancy gadgets that distract us from the meat-and-potatoes basics that should be our first priority.

One of the primary purposes of the interstate highway system was to allow the country to mobilize resources in case they were needed for national defense (or to provide assistance in event of natural disasters). The fact that it also tremendously enhanced interstate commerce was a nice symbiotic outcome.

 

[Kepler]

Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

The very existence of these proposed laws indicates that quite a few people are concerned about the integrity of the electoral process

Not really. The very existence of these laws indicates that one party is trying to put its thumb on the electoral scale.

If these laws were sincere, why would we have things like cutting the vote by mail period except for members of the military? If you're going to say in one breath that cutting the period for the military is "denying our brave servicemen the right to vote," then surely that means that cutting for all those other people is denying them their right to vote.

There are ways to do this that aren't obvious hamfisted methods of trying to steal elections. If we had an honest national debate I'm sure we could arrive at a solution, but as it is, it's just a modern updating of poll taxes, for the same purpose.

 

[Kepler]

Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

Rather than argue about the amount we spend on defense, doesn't it make more sense to say, first, what is the role of the military in our international relations?

Yes, this is the key debate we should have. It makes no sense to have the objective of world empire and then underfund the military, or have the objective of defense of national integrity and then overfund it as if we wanted a world empire.

There should not be a "large military" vs "small military" debate. There should be a "world empire" vs "national defense" debate, and then right-size the military to whatever we decide we want as a nation.

Analogous logic really holds for our other spending. Identify a goal, then fund it fully. If we are short on cash, that's fine, but redefine the goal to be more modest and then fund it fully. Don't keep the same goals, cut the funding, and then get mad at the consarned gubbmint when it doesn't work.

 

[joecct]

Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

How would that apply to the (unsuccessful) Wars on Poverty and Drugs??

 

[Old Pio]

Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

Not really. The very existence of these laws indicates that one party is trying to put its thumb on the electoral scale.

If these laws were sincere, why would we have things like cutting the vote by mail period except for members of the military? If you're going to say in one breath that cutting the period for the military is "denying our brave servicemen the right to vote," then surely that means that cutting for all those other people is denying them their right to vote.



There are ways to do this that aren't obvious hamfisted methods of trying to steal elections. If we had an honest national debate I'm sure we could arrive at a solution, but as it is, it's just a modern updating of poll taxes, for the same purpose.

We're having an "honest natonal debate," you're just on the wrong side. And you're losing, badly, notwithstanding the hyperbolic language.

 

[Old Pio]

Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

Again, it's not the Photo ID per se. It's the implementation and impact of it that causes the issues.

If you're willing to spend the extra money so that it's just as easy to get the free photo ID in downtown Chicago as it is some rural farm county, then by all means.

This monomaniacal concern for the availability of government services to downtown types is touching, it really is. I'm wondering if you're equally concerned about government services that are in short supply or hard to access in rural areas. You know, fire and police. What's the average response time for them in outstate Nebraska? And what do you propose to do about it? Or is making sure people not entitled to vote GET to vote your number one priority?

 

[Kepler]

Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

How would that apply to the (unsuccessful) Wars on Poverty and Drugs??

The War on Drugs seems to be humming along just fine, assuming the goal was to imprison as many of our fellow citizens as possible while also creating a violent underclass worthy of the 1920's.

The War on Poverty was a success assuming the goal was something achievable (like reducing the percentage of people living in poverty). If the goal was to eliminate poverty entirely then it was underfunded and likely always would be. The rules for a well-defined goal are:

Specific
Measurable
Attainable
Relevant
Time-bound

Here's an example of a well-defined goal:

Kill Osama bin Laden by 2015

Here's an example of a poorly-defined goal:

Eliminate Terrorism

 

[Old Pio]

Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

I would also predict that polls would show that Americans overwhelmingly feel that "we should do all that is necessary to ensure that all American citizens have a chance to vote". BOTH allowing everyone to vote and addressing voter fraud in theory are important.

Yet while voter turnout is materially affected by voter restriction laws...voter fraud will not be impacted hardly at all, because there are almost no existing cases of it...leaving such laws as just restricting voter turnout:

New database of US voter fraud finds no evidence that photo ID laws are needed

First of a series of articles, Who Can Vote: a News21 investigation of voting rights in America

A new nationwide analysis of 2,068 alleged election-fraud cases since 2000 shows that while fraud has occurred, the rate is infinitesimal, and in-person voter impersonation on Election Day, which prompted 37 state legislatures to enact or consider tough voter ID laws, is virtually non-existent.

In an exhaustive public records search, reporters from the investigative reporting projecdt News21 sent thousands of requests to elections officers in all 50 states, asking for every case of fraudulent activity including registration fraud, absentee ballot fraud, vote buying, false election counts, campaign fraud, casting an ineligible vote, voting twice, voter impersonation fraud and intimidation.

Analysis of the resulting comprehensive News21 election fraud database turned up 10 cases of voter impersonation. With 146 million registered voters in the United States during that time, those 10 cases represent one out of about every 15 million prospective voters.

“Voter fraud at the polls is an insignificant aspect of American elections,” said elections expert David Schultz, professor of public policy at Hamline University School of Business in St. Paul, Minn.

http://openchannel.nbcnews.com/_new...nds-no-evidence-that-photo-id-laws-are-needed

Makes sense to me. Voter fraud is not a problem. And demanding photo ID's won't impact this non problem. Got it. One question: how does NBC, or you for that matter, know there's no voter fraud? By what metric is that assertion arrived at? The data they, and by extension, you offer strike me as tendentious. I'm not confident at all that their "analysis" is accurate and their research is anything but an effort to affect the outcome of a debate in which they've taken a side. And you and the other defenders of the status quo continue to insist that absence of reports of fraud or convictions is evidence that it's not occurring. How? Why?

Anyone disinclined to vote (the vaunted "voter suppression) because he'll be asked to identify himself should stay home.

No question, when I want the straight dope on an important matter of public policy, my first instinct is to find out what some professor at the Hamline University School of Business thinks.

 

[FreshFish]

Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

Not really. The very existence of these laws indicates that one party is trying to put its thumb on the electoral scale.

Right, and that's what these laws are designed to prevent.

 

[FreshFish]

Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

Interesting "take" from Dick Morris:

Several key swing states have Republican governors.

Thanks to the policies implemented by these governors, unemployment in these states is declining below the national average.

Will the success of Republican governorship thereby lead to a loss for the Republican presidential candidate?


or will the governors somehow be able to say "we need to replicate the results from our state on a national level" ?


Morris thinks the former will occur, not the latter.

 

[Old Pio]

Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

The War on Drugs seems to be humming along just fine, assuming the goal was to imprison as many of our fellow citizens as possible while also creating a violent underclass worthy of the 1920's.

The War on Poverty was a success assuming the goal was something achievable (like reducing the percentage of people living in poverty). If the goal was to eliminate poverty entirely then it was underfunded and likely always would be. The rules for a well-defined goal are:

Specific
Measurable
Attainable
Relevant
Time-bound

Here's an example of a well-defined goal:

Kill Osama bin Laden by 2015

Here's an example of a poorly-defined goal:

Eliminate Terrorism

Will this be on the final?

 

[Kepler]

Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

Right, and that's what these laws are designed to prevent.

Aren't you a cutey.