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The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

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Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

As an accountant I follow the rule of recognizing expenses when they are certain and the amount can be reasonably determined, and revenue only when I have the cash in hand. So, to me, cuts of expenditures are easily quantifiable, but revenue increases are a guess.

With this in mind, news stories with statements like
Officials have estimated it would cost Arkansas about $2 million in revenue.
are misnomers at best. There's no guarantee that folks would have bought the items without the tax holiday. Some yes (wedding dress); some no (costumes). Many may have "made do" with what they already had.

Assuming all sales on that day are lost "revenue" (how about more accurately calling it "unrealized tax receipts" instead?) isn't correct.
 
Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

Was out of country until yesterday so missed the last part of the debacle. Have a serious question- before I left every economist I saw, read or heard/read quoted said that to just cut the deficit would have adverse effect on the economy, that there needed to be revenue influx to keep the economy afloat. I try to avoid the extreme stations like fox and msnbc. Are there any economists that are espousing the cut only school of thought? I can't see how, with all the cuts, you would not lose jobs as the various programs have decrease flow of $. Is this something the fiscal conservatives acknowledge and just see as a necessary evil or are they just ignoring that no $ means less jobs. Are there some that just feel there will be no change? This makes no sense to me.
There are economists that espouse all sorts of schools of thought, including only cuts. You will certainly lose jobs, and lots of them, if the government controls its spending on Medicare, defense, and general federal government activities. You'll lose lots of jobs in medical fields, with defense contractors, in federal government agencies, in other areas, as well as the ripple effects of those. I think most people vastly underestimate how much the federal government's overspending artificially juices the economy. I agree that some amount of tax increases has to be part of the mix. Part of the problem is that from those who want to see government spending cut, there is zero trust that over time such spending cuts, even if committed to in seemingly ironclad ways, will actually materialize, as there always seem to be ways that future Presidents and Congresses find to get around any efforts to reign in federal spending. I'm skeptical that any spending cuts agreed to in this recent deal will actually materialize, or if they will somehow be swallowed up by maneuvers in future years as politicians don't want to take the heat for cutting peoples' benefits and pet projects. Whereas a tax increase is much more tangible and concrete and you can easily see if it's taking place or not. Just one angle on why cost cutters seem to be a very skeptical bunch. Frankly I simply don't believe the politicians in Washington will ever let up on the spending gas enough (with some reasonable tax increases thrown in the mix) to stop this country from driving off the cliff sooner or later.
 
Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

With this in mind, news stories with statements like

are misnomers at best. There's no guarantee that folks would have bought the items without the tax holiday. Some yes (wedding dress); some no (costumes). Many may have "made do" with what they already had.

Assuming all sales on that day are lost "revenue" (how about more accurately calling it "unrealized tax receipts" instead?) isn't correct.

Much like the cash for clunkers or the 8,000 dollar home buying credit, the tax holidays are far less effective than they could be. What they usually do is time shift purchases to coincide with the holiday. Most if not all of those purchases would've been made at some point, the only question is how far in the future (or how long ago in the past).

Iowa's version of the tax holiday only covers clothing up to $100, so at least it avoids the excesses like wedding dresses. But it's still not great policy.
 
Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

There are economists that espouse all sorts of schools of thought, including only cuts.

With the caveat that Austrian School economists are not mainstream and are considered by people actually working in the field to be the economic equivalent of homeopathic practioners in medicine. There's a reason even the Chicago Schoolers think the Austrian Schoolers are bat shiat insane.

I will say, this whole ordeal has, ironically, forced me to reconsider my position on global warming, since I now wonder whether the stuff I read about that is on par with the Austrian School in economics.

Are there any economists that are espousing the cut only school of thought? I can't see how, with all the cuts, you would not lose jobs as the various programs have decrease flow of $. Is this something the fiscal conservatives acknowledge and just see as a necessary evil or are they just ignoring that no $ means less jobs. Are there some that just feel there will be no change? This makes no sense to me.

No mainstream economist is arguing that. Keynsians clearly aren't. And even Chicago schoolers would have the fed continue to use monetary policy (it should also be noted that Judge Posner has drifted away from the Chicago School and more towards Keynsian theory in recent years).

Frankly, few economists would have us raise taxes right now either. But if the choice is between the two, the taxes are likely to be less harmful than outright spending cuts.
 
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Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

Frankly, few economists would have us raise taxes right now either. But if the choice is between the two, the taxes are likely to be less harmful than outright spending cuts.
Why? If the nation / state / locality is living beyond its means, shouldn't it take steps to tighten its belt before asking its citizens to pony up?
 
Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

Why? If the nation / state / locality is living beyond its means, shouldn't it take steps to tighten its belt before asking its citizens to pony up?

Wow, that's such a loaded question that there's about 10 different holes to shoot and I don't even know where to start, let alone keep it short enough for a message board without glossing over points so much that they're rendered meaningless.

First off, there's 2 issues at play. One is the debt, the other is the bad economy. Unfortunatly, the solutions to each are diametrically opposed. If you want to cut the debt, you have to raise revenue and/or cut spending. But the solutions to a bad economy are deficit spending (if you're a Keynsian) and loose monetary policy (if you're a Chicago Schooler).

To the extent that the Tea Party has forced the government to make the debt a priority rather than the weak economy, we're then stuck with either cutting spending or raising taxes. Thanks to things like the multiplier effect, and for the same reasons that show the necessity for a progessive taxation system in the first place, increased taxes tend to harm the economy less than outright spending cuts.

As to your assertion that a government is spending beyond its means, well, that's almost entirely a political question. You're essentially saying we're spending more than we can afford. Which might be true, but probably not to the extent you are trying to say. Considering we're currently taking in 14% of GDP in taxes when we historically take in 18-19% of the GDP, there's about $600-$750 billion dollars (based upon a $15 trillion GDP) our government would normally collect but is leaving on the table at the present time for whatever reason. Other countries take in well more than that and seem to be doing just fine. So the notion that we're beyond our means is based on an assumption (we can't afford to spend more) that is far from universal. We could afford it, the question is are we willing to.

"Tighten its belt before asking the citizens to pony up" - that's another political question. Do you like government spending or not? One man's fat is another's necessity. Polls show Americans hate taxes, but also show they don't want to give up their government programs (whether they recognize it as such or not - like the 44% of people collecting social security who then say they aren't participating in any government program) and normally, when faced with specific choices of higher taxes or cutting "_______" (whatever _______ is), they'll take higher taxes.

From an economics point of view, you don't do either right now or you risk 1937 happening again. When the economy is better, you probably do both. But since the Tea Party has forced the issue at a remarkably bad time, the better option is to have at least some tax increases.
 
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Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

So the notion that we're beyond our means is based on an assumption (we can't afford to spend more) that is far from universal.
We're spending at something like 24% of the GDP right now. Even assuming historical levels of taxation, I don't think that's sustainable. However, I also don't think now (the middle of a major economic correction) is the right time to be making strong value judgments about things that will have to be done in the longer term to bring spending under control.

What we should be aiming for is a modest surplus during the boom years and modest debt during the bust years. But the GOP idiots who were running the country from 2000 onward not only spent the surplus, they ran a debt during the boom, pis<b></b>sing away the surplus on tax cuts to a bunch of people who didn't need them. :rolleyes:
 
Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

Considering we're currently taking in 14% of GDP in taxes when we historically take in 18-19% of the GDP, there's about $600-$750 billion dollars (based upon a $15 trillion GDP) our government would normally collect but is leaving on the table at the present time for whatever reason.

And historically the US had legal slavery and dropped atomic bombs during a war. History is a poor measure for many things. That thought aside ...

The better question is: Even if they were taking in 19% of GDP, why is the Federal Government spending about 23% of GDP*? Surely there is money in there that is being spent unnecessarily. Every American business and household has had to make changes to improve their fiscal operations. Why not ask the same of government.

*Source: http://www.gpoaccess.gov/usbudget/fy11/pdf/summary.pdf Table S-1.
 
Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

And historically the US had legal slavery and dropped atomic bombs during a war. History is a poor measure for many things.

Thankfully, economic principles is not one of those. Empirical data from history is very useful in the field.

The better question is: Even if they were taking in 19% of GDP, why is the Federal Government spending about 23% of GDP*?

Because our economy is in the shiatter and cutting government spending at this point is like dousing a fire with gasoline. Go read about the double dip of 1937 for a perfect example.

The time to cut spending and run a surplus was, oh, 1997-2007. The next time to cut spending is when our economy is running smoothly again.

Every American business and household has had to make changes to improve their fiscal operations. Why not ask the same of government.

Because the government is not a business. And treating it as such is counterproductive at best and completely destructive at worst.
 
Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

Thankfully, economic principles is not one of those. Empirical data from history is very useful in the field.



Because our economy is in the shiatter and cutting government spending at this point is like dousing a fire with gasoline. Go read about the double dip of 1937 for a perfect example.

The time to cut spending and run a surplus was, oh, 1997-2007. The next time to cut spending is when our economy is running smoothly again.



Because the government is not a business. And treating it as such is counterproductive at best and completely destructive at worst.

I would point you to 1921 and 1947 as counterpoints on cutting spending. By your rationale we should have gone into depression when we cut spending from 100% of GDP during the war to 15% after yet the nation prospered.
 
Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

I would point you to 1921 and 1947 as counterpoints on cutting spending. By your rationale we should have gone into depression when we cut spending from 100% of GDP during the war to 15% after yet the nation prospered.
Way to completely ignore that the US was the lone super power left without being gutted after those two world wars. (one of two in 47)

Furthermore we are currently involved in wars over in the middle east that were NEVER funded in anyway, in fact the gov't was funded even less due to the Bush tax cuts. Yet for some reason our spending problems only seem to be on domestic "entitlements" whenever you hear from "fiscal" conservatives about how we need to reign in spending.
 
Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

Way to completely ignore that the US was the lone super power left without being gutted after those two world wars. (one of two in 47)

Furthermore we are currently involved in wars over in the middle east that were NEVER funded in anyway, in fact the gov't was funded even less due to the Bush tax cuts. Yet for some reason our spending problems only seem to be on domestic "entitlements" whenever you hear from "fiscal" conservatives about how we need to reign in spending.

Yep. Funny how that works, isn't it?
 
Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

And historically the US had legal slavery and dropped atomic bombs during a war. History is a poor measure for many things. That thought aside ...

The better question is: Even if they were taking in 19% of GDP, why is the Federal Government spending about 23% of GDP*? Surely there is money in there that is being spent unnecessarily. Every American business and household has had to make changes to improve their fiscal operations. Why not ask the same of government.

*Source: http://www.gpoaccess.gov/usbudget/fy11/pdf/summary.pdf Table S-1.

So why cant we raise taxes to 19% of GDP AND cut spending down to it? Neither alone can fix this but both together can. This doesnt have to be one or the other we can and should do both.
 
Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

I would point you to 1921 and 1947 as counterpoints on cutting spending. By your rationale we should have gone into depression when we cut spending from 100% of GDP during the war to 15% after yet the nation prospered.


His point, which you completely missed, is that you don't cut spending during a downturn. In 1921 and 1947 the US was not in a downturn.
 
Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

So why cant we raise taxes to 19% of GDP AND cut spending down to it? Neither alone can fix this but both together can. This doesnt have to be one or the other we can and should do both.

I agree. There's no one way out of this.

Everyone should face a tax increase to make sure they understand the dire circumstances we (<-- key word there: WE) face.

I'm not asking for much, but I'd like to see every American have to file a tax return with a basic tax, call it a "cover charge" or "ante", of $100 per adult. I'd like to know that everyone has something real into this economic/governmental/social poker game. Oh, and this basic tax couldn't come by withholding: You'd have to pay it by cash, check, or credit card. Let's make it real for everyone. Call it a common, shared American experience.
 
Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

I agree. There's no one way out of this.

Everyone should face a tax increase to make sure they understand the dire circumstances we (<-- key word there: WE) face.

I'm not asking for much, but I'd like to see every American have to file a tax return with a basic tax, call it a "cover charge" or "ante", of $100 per adult. I'd like to know that everyone has something real into this economic/governmental/social poker game. Oh, and this basic tax couldn't come by withholding: You'd have to pay it by cash, check, or credit card. Let's make it real for everyone. Call it a common, shared American experience.

Great, and the new enforcement/administration of this will cost more than the income that is realized from it.:rolleyes:
 
Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

Great, and the new enforcement/administration of this will cost more than the income that is realized from it.:rolleyes:

And there you sum up the greater problem we face: We have to enforce people doing the right thing.
 
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Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

And there you sum up the greater problem we face: We have to enforce people doing the right thing.

Yes, unfortunately we do. Otherwise people with great power (like S&P) miss the boat on something and the entire world's economy collapses unless we bail out the richest amongst us.

Ridiculous on its face.
 
Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

I agree. There's no one way out of this.

Everyone should face a tax increase to make sure they understand the dire circumstances we (<-- key word there: WE) face.

I'm not asking for much, but I'd like to see every American have to file a tax return with a basic tax, call it a "cover charge" or "ante", of $100 per adult. I'd like to know that everyone has something real into this economic/governmental/social poker game. Oh, and this basic tax couldn't come by withholding: You'd have to pay it by cash, check, or credit card. Let's make it real for everyone. Call it a common, shared American experience.

I'd take that a step further and mandate that any tax increase and/or decrease be levied across the board for everyone; that is, if you want to bump the top marginal rate by 3%, everyone pays an additional 3%--even those who currently have no tax liability. This would eliminate the ability for politicians to buy votes with tax policy and class warfare. After all......didn't someone say we all should have some "skin in the game"?
 
Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

I'd take that a step further and mandate that any tax increase and/or decrease be levied across the board for everyone; that is, if you want to bump the top marginal rate by 3%, everyone pays an additional 3%--even those who currently have no tax liability. This would eliminate the ability for politicians to buy votes with tax policy and class warfare. After all......didn't someone say we all should have some "skin in the game"?

"There's class warfare, all right, but it's my class, the rich class, that's making war, and we're winning." - Warren Buffet

And what a shocker, you want to flatten the progressiveness of the tax structure. Why do you hate capitalism?

"The necessaries of life occasion the great expense of the poor. They find it difficult to get food, and the greater part of their little revenue is spent in getting it. The luxuries and vanities of life occasion the principal expense of the rich, and a magnificent house embellishes and sets off to the best advantage all the other luxuries and vanities which they possess. A tax upon house-rents, therefore, would in general fall heaviest upon the rich; and in this sort of inequality there would not, perhaps, be anything very unreasonable. It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion." - Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations
 
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