The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

[Bakunin]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

Why do you hate America?

A better question is why does Priceless care about how the echo chamber would portray this if it were Reid or Pelosi's holdings?

Giving a **** about how partisans view stories about the other side is the first step toward an aneurysm.

 

[Priceless]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

A better question is why does Priceless care about how the echo chamber would portray this if it were Reid or Pelosi's holdings?

Because it is blatant hypocrisy?

 

[unofan]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

Because it is blatant hypocrisy?

So call them out on their hypocrisy, don't engage in it yourself...

 

[Bakunin]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

Because it is blatant hypocrisy?

...which isn't exactly new or noteworthy coming from them.

 

[Priceless]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

So call them out on their hypocrisy, don't engage in it yourself...

Right. Be bigger than them. Let them walk all over the liberals in the public debate. Good strategy.

 

[Tundra]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

Right. Be bigger than them. Let them walk all over the liberals in the public debate. Good strategy.

Not a bad idea. get some political points.

But better strategy (investment wise) would be to actually follow and short US treasury. (plus he might have inside info/tip from investment guru)

Uncle Ben said something about another $300billion for QE3. but with record low rates, it's not a bad bet.

Looks like another jobless recovery.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Treas...4.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=

The 20 firms have a negative $44.5 billion position in Treasury notes and bonds, compared with the negative $11 billion average of the last three years, indicating they expect prices will fall.

Revenue Outlook

Revenue of S&P 500 companies will climb 10 percent this year, twice the rate of 2010, according to data from analysts compiled by Bloomberg. That will help increase 2011 profit even as companies run out of opportunities to reduce costs by firing workers or closing factories.

Business activity in the U.S. expanded at a faster pace in June as orders and production picked up, signaling manufacturing will keep driving growth in the world’s largest economy

 

[Tundra]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

Actually TBT is a good bet in almost strategy for 3-10years (although they seem to be using leverage with swaps). If government shuts down .. US treasury rates will skyrocket. If they make a deal and economy grows next year, US treasury rates will probably go up. If we get a hint of inflation and/or Fed changes posture rates will go up.

there isn't much room for rates to go down at 3% and not M(any) scenarios where it'll go down a lot without Fed intervention.

 

[Priceless]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

Looks like another jobless recovery.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Treas...4.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=

But I thought giving tax cuts to job producers would create jobs?

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

So, now we're going to short US Treasury Bonds? And that's going to turn out as well as shorting Mortgage securities did for the economic health of the planet. Yeah, great idea. I hope someone is finding a way to put the brakes on that and balance it out somehow.

 

[unofan]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

Be bigger than them. Let them walk all over the liberals in the public debate.

These two do not inherently go hand in hand. It's just the lazy way out.

 

[Bakunin]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

So, now we're going to short US Treasury Bonds? And that's going to turn out as well as shorting Mortgage securities did for the economic health of the planet. Yeah, great idea. I hope someone is finding a way to put the brakes on that and balance it out somehow.

There is nothing wrong with shorting stocks, bonds, US treasuries, or anything else. It's just as valid a bet on the market as going long any of those things.

The problems arise when you start talking about leveraging which can turn any investment into a bottomless pit of losses if the market goes against you. Just ask the banking sector how all that leveraging worked for them with the mortgage investments.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

There is nothing wrong with shorting stocks, bonds, US treasuries, or anything else. It's just as valid a bet on the market as going long any of those things.

The problems arise when you start talking about leveraging which can turn any investment into a bottomless pit of losses if the market goes against you. Just ask the banking sector how all that leveraging worked for them with the mortgage investments.

I understand that. What happened with the mortgage bonds though is the rating agencies either didn't know how to rate them, or just plain rated them wrong. That's why when the house fell things went so bad. If the bonds had been rated properly the crisis never would have happened. Simplified, but that's what I was getting at.

So, the question here is whether or not the same thing could happen. Right now if folks are lining up to short treasury bonds they should be being rated as a bad investment and that in and of itself would cause issues right now but would cushion the blow later.

 

[Tundra]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

But I thought giving tax cuts to job producers would create jobs?

Ha ha. obviously not true.

I wonder how long "republican's" been talking about 1% paying xx% vs bottom 50%. Is that how Bush got the tax cuts in 2000?
They are doing a GREAT job spinning the rich getting richer and poor getting poorer phenomenon.

I found this article in 2000 ... when top 1% were making 15% of all income and paying 30% ... now in 2010 top 1% is making 20% of all income and paying even more share 40%.

In 2005 bottom 35% paid no taxes. by 2008 bottom 50% paid no taxes.
IE there were more unemployed poor people in 2008.

And it's kinda of amazing the conclusion these guys come up with the raw numbers. when these numbers are basically describing richer getting richer (And paying more taxes) and poor getting poorer (And paying no taxes).

So bottom 20% makes < $10,000 and bottom 40% makes < $20,000 in 1999
and they are using same argument in 1999 as in 2011. It's a good spin for math illiterate population. (everyday math).

http://www.allegromedia.com/sugi/taxes/
Income Category 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1999
(Projected)
Highest 20% $94,300 $98,300 $95,900 $99,500 $109,000 $113,000 $118,000 $111,000 $114,000 $120,000 $132,000
Fourth 20% $49,300 $50,400 $48,400 $48,000 $49,600 $51,100 $50,900 $49,300 $49,000 $49,600 $53,000
Middle 20% $36,400 $36,200 $34,600 $32,800 $34,200 $34,900 $35,000 $33,600 $32,300 $33,300 $35,400
Second 20% $23,700 $23,200 $21,700 $19,800 $21,300 $21,600 $21,400 $20,600 $19,600 $20,100 $21,200
Lowest 20% $10,000 $9,600 $8,900 $8,100 $8,700 $8,700 $9,000 $8,400 $7,800 $8,100 $8,400

 

[Bakunin]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

Right now if folks are lining up to short treasury bonds they should be being rated as a bad investment and that in and of itself would cause issues right now but would cushion the blow later.

Ratings and short interest aren't necessarily related to each other.

As far as what the US credit rating *should* be is concerned, your guess is as good as mine. Even if the debt ceiling is raised, the rating could still take a hit in the longer term (3-5 years) if Congress doesn't get its act together and start showing significant steps toward balancing the budget and getting the nation's debt under control. Investors' appetite for US debt is not limitless, particularly at the **** yields it currently pays.

 

[Patman]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

A better question is why does Priceless care about how the echo chamber would portray this if it were Reid or Pelosi's holdings?

Giving a **** about how partisans view stories about the other side is the first step toward an aneurysm.

Pelosi's holdings only matter to the poor people of the American Samoa... apparently tuna factory workers don't deserve the same minimum wage as the rest of the nation because her husband owns a good share of the tuna industry out there.

edit: but i think its great that Priceless thinks that we should make Cantor's bet moot by slashing the budget so that we don't go deeper into debt nearly as fast... oh, right, he thinks you can build the great society... my fault.

 

[Priceless]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

edit: but i think its great that Priceless thinks that we should make Cantor's bet moot by slashing the budget so that we don't go deeper into debt nearly as fast... oh, right, he thinks you can build the great society... my fault.

The latest proposal was an $4 trillion budget cut coupled with a whopping $400 billion in closing tax loopholes (mind you, not even touching the precious tax cuts that were supposed to expire last year). It was 83% spending cuts and 17% revenue enhancers. That deal was so horrible for Republicans that they walked out of the budget talks. Back in March they suggested an 85/15 split. So you'll have to forgive me if I'm a little cynical about the GOP's desire to get a deal done.

We cannot negotiate with those who say, "What's mine is mine and what's yours is negotiable."

 

[Kepler]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

Not a bad idea. get some political points.

I remember when President Dukakis did that by ignoring mendacious Republican attack ads, and President Kerry did that by ignoring the Swift Boaters. The American public is truly impressed when leaders stay above the fray, they never take the bait of orchestrated outrage or demagoguery, and they reward honorable politicians with landslide victories.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

The latest proposal was an $4 trillion budget cut coupled with a whopping $400 billion in closing tax loopholes (mind you, not even touching the precious tax cuts that were supposed to expire last year). It was 83% spending cuts and 17% revenue enhancers. That deal was so horrible for Republicans that they walked out of the budget talks. Back in March they suggested an 85/15 split. So you'll have to forgive me if I'm a little cynical about the GOP's desire to get a deal done.

All or nothing. The new way to govern.

 

[Kepler]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

All or nothing. The new way to govern.

Movement conservatism isn't new. It's not a political theory, it's a religion, and you don't compromise on your religion.

 

[Kepler]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

An analysis of the radicalization of the right and, to a lesser but still noticeable extent, the left. If the thesis is right, it helps explain why the GOP won't negotiate in good faith: it's the politically "smart" thing to do, at least short-term.

Of course, it won't be quite as smart if they tank the economy, though by the same reasoning about two-thirds of the party will never accept their responsibility -- that may be why they are willing to take the risk.