Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

Vegas has the Hoover Dam. NYC still blames that **** Hoover.

And housewives in Miami still say nobody does it like Hoover.

 

[Almington]

Re: Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

Tell that to those who have electric heaters.

You know what, since we're focused so much on the southwest, let's look at Vegas. You're telling me that the energy used to light up the strip, run night life events (dance clubs, concerts), keep casinos running 24/7, and so on and so forth is less than what is used during the day? Are you telling me the same is true in Miami and NYC (the city that doesn't sleep)?

If I wanted to push renewable energy that was fairly reliable, I would find a nearby river, and (get a couple of THE SIOUX ('n)) DAMMIT! throwing that phrase in was necessary

Yes, every city is going to use less electricity at night then they do in the day. For everything that is going on at night in those cities, you have thousands of offices that are shut down and and 10's of thousands of people who are asleep and using nearly no energy. It's why peek energy rates are instituded during the day and early evening and why the nighttime rates are often so much lower.

You said it yourself: those casinos are running 24/7, the lighting is the same day and night, but the AC is going to have to work that much harder in the Blazing Desert sun. On top of that you have everything in Vegas that ISN'T the strip that is using significantly less energy.

If you use electric heaters as a major, long term heat source (and not a supplemental source) you are committing a thermodynamic sin (heat is the "lowest" form of energy, electricity is the "highest" form of energy that we have: using electricity generate heat is just about the most inefficient way to use energy to warm a space.)

 

[St. Clown]

Re: Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

Vegas has the Hoover Dam. NYC still blames that **** Hoover.

Lake Mead is shrinking, something's got to change for Vegas's electric supply or the Strip will be lighted in a striped fashion.

 

[LynahFan]

Re: Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

I agree with Almington on this one - even Vegas will use less energy at night. Do not underestimate the power required to run air conditioning - it is evil! You can burn a lot of light bulbs for the same power as cooling a room, to say nothing of a cavernous casino full of warm bodies. Additionally, all of the power that you use to run the machines and the lights inside the casino turns into heat anyway, and then you have to run your air conditioning to move that heat outside the building.

That said, the power usage overnight is probably still 75% of the daytime use - not 10% or anything like that, so storage is most definitely a challenge for solar power.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

Fun fact: I know for a fact the Mall of America runs the A/C year-round in Camp Snoopy. Without A/C it would begin to rain in the building. Seriously.

 

[Almington]

Re: Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

I agree with Almington on this one - even Vegas will use less energy at night. Do not underestimate the power required to run air conditioning - it is evil! You can burn a lot of light bulbs for the same power as cooling a room, to say nothing of a cavernous casino full of warm bodies. Additionally, all of the power that you use to run the machines and the lights inside the casino turns into heat anyway, and then you have to run your air conditioning to move that heat outside the building.

That said, the power usage overnight is probably still 75% of the daytime use - not 10% or anything like that, so storage is most definitely a challenge for solar power.

Honestly, if you could find an effective and efficient way to store electricity on a large scale over a long term, every utility in the world would take it. The ability to run production at an even rate and fill storage when demand is low and drain storage when demand is high would be a dream for them- often the last unit of energy produced is the most expensive during peek demand times.

The bottom line is that no one thing is going to replace all of fossil fuels, it's going to take many, many complex pieces and technological advances over many, many years to provide adequate replacements given fossil fuels many inherent advantages.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

I agree with Almington on this one - even Vegas will use less energy at night. Do not underestimate the power required to run air conditioning - it is evil! You can burn a lot of light bulbs for the same power as cooling a room, to say nothing of a cavernous casino full of warm bodies. Additionally, all of the power that you use to run the machines and the lights inside the casino turns into heat anyway, and then you have to run your air conditioning to move that heat outside the building.

That said, the power usage overnight is probably still 75% of the daytime use - not 10% or anything like that, so storage is most definitely a challenge for solar power.

No kidding on the A/C. I can usually keep the electric bill under 40 bucks, but in summer months I can sometimes bust my budget limit of 60, and I'm only running the thing a few hours a day and on "energy saver" mode!

And considering the discussion was brought up around the usage of electric vehicles, how many kWh would anyone estimate would be expended on average when you charge a vehicle? Transfer that to evening cost as well, especially if this whole electric vehicle thing is going to take off. Whether you believe it will or not, let's just assume it will for the sake of hypothesis. Those sure as heck aren't going to be charged during the "peak hours" that people have been pushing. Wouldn't that be a challenge as well?

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

Fun fact: I know for a fact the Mall of America runs the A/C year-round in Camp Snoopy. Without A/C it would begin to rain in the building. Seriously.

I believe that's actually true for a number of sports domes as well.

 

[unofan]

Tell that to those who have electric heaters.

You know what, since we're focused so much on the southwest, let's look at Vegas. You're telling me that the energy used to light up the strip, run night life events (dance clubs, concerts), keep casinos running 24/7, and so on and so forth is less than what is used during the day? Are you telling me the same is true in Miami and NYC (the city that doesn't sleep)?

If I wanted to push renewable energy that was fairly reliable, I would find a nearby river, and (get a couple of THE SIOUX ('n)) DAMMIT! throwing that phrase in was necessary

Again, there is something ironic about using a city powered by a govt funded hydro dam as proof we should abandon efforts to reduce fossil fuel use...

 

[Rover]

Again, there is something ironic about using a city powered by a govt funded hydro dam as proof we should abandon efforts to reduce fossil fuel use...

I understand the economics of people using solar for their own houses is tough to make work in that the upfront costs are substantial without a subsidy. However, there must be some economies of scale in plastering all those Nevada desert places where we used to do nuclear testing with solar panel farms to generate free electricity after set up. For electricity/energy generation, this country should not be using any oil and coal should be strictly a back up energy source. From what I found:

Coal 42%
Natural Gas 25%
Nuclear 19%
Hydropower 8%
Other Renewable 5%
Biomass 1.38%
Geothermal 0.41%
Solar 0.04%
Wind 2.92%
Petroleum 1%
Other Gases < 1%

There's no reason for solar to be less than petroleum to generate electricity. Wind and solar should make up 15% of our energy needs at the expense of oil and coal. Not sure we can do much more with hydro as we aren't building any new dams but bump up nuclear another 5% and natural gas should take up the rest.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

I understand the economics of people using solar for their own houses is tough to make work in that the upfront costs are substantial without a subsidy. However, there must be some economies of scale in plastering all those Nevada desert places where we used to do nuclear testing with solar panel farms to generate free electricity after set up. For electricity/energy generation, this country should not be using any oil and coal should be strictly a back up energy source. From what I found:

Coal 42%
Natural Gas 25%
Nuclear 19%
Hydropower 8%
Other Renewable 5%
Biomass 1.38%
Geothermal 0.41%
Solar 0.04%
Wind 2.92%
Petroleum 1%
Other Gases < 1%

There's no reason for solar to be less than petroleum to generate electricity. Wind and solar should make up 15% of our energy needs at the expense of oil and coal. Not sure we can do much more with hydro as we aren't building any new dams but bump up nuclear another 5% and natural gas should take up the rest.

From various ads that I see, supposedly that sort of activity is banned because the government wants people on the grid. Do I believe that? Not really. However, personal or inherently rural usage of wind/solar I can completely see happening, and I don't mean envision. I know someone who has owned a solar plant from back in the 20th century, and I believe another person I know does wind along the side of a hill (which is one of the few places where you can really get away with that). The problem with using it to replace fossil fuels is, as LynahFan has pointed out a number of times, the amount of energy that is created from a similar surface area is much less with solar than it is with fossil fuels, even if you account for optimal conditions (i.e. desert and time-synced panels). Can you get away with a rural area? Sure. Suburban? If it's not too dense. Urban areas, though, you'd have quite a bit of difficulty with keeping up with demand for wind/solar energy, especially if usage is high. The reason coal and oil are so good is because of the amount of energy you can get from burning them.

If we want to research anything, we really should be looking towards fusion. After all, is that not the reaction occurring from what the sun is generating? If it can heat a planet from 93 million miles, I can't wait to see what it will do inside a reactor.

 

[LynahFan]

I understand the economics of people using solar for their own houses is tough to make work in that the upfront costs are substantial without a subsidy. However, there must be some economies of scale in plastering all those Nevada desert places where we used to do nuclear testing with solar panel farms to generate free electricity after set up. For electricity/energy generation, this country should not be using any oil and coal should be strictly a back up energy source. From what I found:

Coal 42%
Natural Gas 25%
Nuclear 19%
Hydropower 8%
Other Renewable 5%
Biomass 1.38%
Geothermal 0.41%
Solar 0.04%
Wind 2.92%
Petroleum 1%
Other Gases < 1%

There's no reason for solar to be less than petroleum to generate electricity. Wind and solar should make up 15% of our energy needs at the expense of oil and coal. Not sure we can do much more with hydro as we aren't building any new dams but bump up nuclear another 5% and natural gas should take up the rest.

True story: I used to have a 28 foot sailboat on Lake Champlain. A friend of mine with a powerboat at the marina was complaining about the fuel prices and saying he wished he could get around the lake for free. I asked how much he spent on fuel in a season, and he said around $500. I said, well, a new sail for my boat costs $5000, and if I take good care of it, it will probably last about 10 seasons. There is no free energy outside of the sales pitches of green energy companies who haven't built anything yet.

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

I understand the economics of people using solar for their own houses is tough to make work in that the upfront costs are substantial without a subsidy. However, there must be some economies of scale in plastering all those Nevada desert places where we used to do nuclear testing with solar panel farms to generate free electricity after set up.

I wouldn't be listening to those on the right here. They're living in the past. Growth:

PV INDUSTRY GROWTH 1996 THROUGH 2011

What's driving it? Per wiki...as of 2011, the price of PV modules per MW has fallen by 60% since the summer of 2008, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimates, putting solar power for the first time on a competitive footing with the retail price of electricity in a number of sunny countries; an alternative and consistent price decline figure of 75% from 2007 to 2012 has also been published.

At these pricing trends and technology improvement, it won't take too many years for these technologies (and accompanying financing) to make a serious run here.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

I wouldn't be listening to those on the right here. They're living in the past. Growth:

PV INDUSTRY GROWTH 1996 THROUGH 2011

What's driving it? Per wiki...as of 2011, the price of PV modules per MW has fallen by 60% since the summer of 2008, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimates, putting solar power for the first time on a competitive footing with the retail price of electricity in a number of sunny countries; an alternative and consistent price decline figure of 75% from 2007 to 2012 has also been published.

At these pricing trends and technology improvement, it won't take too many years for these technologies (and accompanying financing) to make a serious run here.

Just like how, in the 27th century, the mile will be able to be run in negative time?

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

Expected continued high unemployment leading the F.R. to keep Fed Funds Rate near zero for three years. http://www.bizjournals.com/albuquer...12/federal-reserve-joblessness-to-remain.html

Sometimes, I wonder if the government is intentionally providing catalysts for reasons for the Fed to keep the FFR near zero so they can continue to overspend. This is why we need the spending reduction law enacted a couple years back to take effect. You know the messiah dictator isn't going to budge. He has no reason to do so. He has nothing to lose. There are no further elections for him to face, and he gets Treasury protection for the rest of his life, so why not turn the country into a third world nation? Sure, there are going to be whiners and complainers about how we're going to go to recession. Wake up and smell the roses; we're already there. It's time to act like we're in stagflation, because we are, and not keep trying to spend our way out of it.

 

[unofan]

It's time to act like we're in stagflation, because we are

No we're not.

 

[Rover]

Re: Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

People advocating massive spending cuts are completely oblivious or willfully stupid over what's happening in Europe as we write. Hard right austerity has had catastrophic results. Negative growth. Double dip recessions. Higher unemployment. Social unrest. You name it, and its occured even in historically stable countries such as Great Britain.

Given the relatively lower unemployment in the US vs those countries, and the fact that the main source of income for most retirees is a paid for program for the next 30 years (Social Security), the US needs to achieve 5T, of 500Bn a year in deficit reductions over the next 10 years. Do that and the investment community will put their $'s back in the US as the world's most stable economy given the EU troubles and China's crumbling business model of cheap slave labor (apparently the slave laborers in Vietnam and Cambodia charge less now).

So, raise taxes on wealthy, get rid of payroll deduction tax (worthwhile but can be scaled back now), put capital gains taxes back up to 20% and broaden tax base by limiting deductions. This should raise 2T easily. 1T cut in war/defense spending plus another 1T in domestic non-entitlement spending gets us to 4T. Get the rest from Medicare/Medicaid savings in the form of fraud crackdown, tort reform, and better cost management.

Now that doesn't solve the whole deficit, and we can't count on economic growth the fill the approx 5T gap. That comes from means testing entitlements and possibly raising age of eligibility. This is STEP 2 once the first is accomplished.

Finally, people slavishly devoted to Grover from Sesame Street Norquist are idiots or have no balls. I heard the guy interviewed yesterday and he's living in his own world. Somehow despite the fact that Obama was overwhelmingly re-elected, Dems gained seats in the Senate and House, and more people voted for House Dems than GOP ones meaning the party exists as a majority solely due to gerrymandering, Grover still thinks the public is against tax hikes for the rich. Oooookaaayyyy...go back to your street corner and tell Big Bird we said hi.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

Except there have been absolutely zero signs of out of whack inflation...

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

Except there have been absolutely zero signs of out of whack inflation...

Why has the price of gold, which is still commonly regarded as a standard for which currencies are valued (although not legally accepted as reserve since Switzerland dropped the standard in 2000, despite Donald Trump using it to pay for some real estate), skyrocketed in the past ten or so years?

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

Why has the price of gold, which is still commonly regarded as a standard for which currencies are valued (although not legally accepted as reserve since Switzerland dropped the standard in 2000, despite Donald Trump using it to pay for some real estate), skyrocketed in the past ten or so years?

Which must be why we're seeing double digit rates in our bonds, bills, and notes?