What's new
USCHO Fan Forum

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

  • The USCHO Fan Forum has migrated to a new plaform, xenForo. Most of the function of the forum should work in familiar ways. Please note that you can switch between light and dark modes by clicking on the gear icon in the upper right of the main menu bar. We are hoping that this new platform will prove to be faster and more reliable. Please feel free to explore its features.

Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
My hypothesis is one of two things: One (and is probably the reasoning behind GWB's report of this during a State of the Union address), the ratio of workers to retirees is expected to drastically change now that the baby boomer generation is about to reach retirement age. Two, and is the reason why I asked this question earlier for some proof on this, is concerns that the surpluses are not being invested in order to account for helping against these unrealised debts, and are instead being used to attempt to balance the budget (which we know Clinton AND Dubya did, I don't know if others did or do though). If we're going to claim that it funds itself, then you truly need to keep the funding separate. The income from SS goes ONLY to SS, and anything extra goes ONLY to either a bank account or treasuries in order to collect interest, and then that money is used only for social security funding. As a good example, consider Harvard's endowment fund. According to someone I met during an ECAC hockey game, the interest generated from Harvard's endowment fund is enough to pay for everyone's tuition at that university. Why couldn't we look to do the same for Social Security?

I don't believe the worker/retiree ratio is expected to go below 2:1 even at the peak Boomer retirement. I'm curious what happens after we're done with the Boomers however as the demographics may reset themselves closer to the norm or at least what was present when the program was founded.

Regarding using SS to pay down the deficit, my understanding is the SS Admin takes the tax collections and buys Treasuries which yield 2% (I'm assuming in real dollars) over your lifetime. Essentually its a promise that in the future the trust fund will give you back an extra 2% on what you contributed and paid for by future taxpayers and so on and so on. Seen in that context politicians aren't using SS proceeds to pay for other programs, although they can project a lower total deficit because their payouts to the current beneficiaries are lower than contributions. However, those contributions aren't being used to pay for a new aircraft carrier or tuition for illegal immigrants.

What Bush and to some extent Clinton were thinking of was getting a higher than 2% return paid for by the market and not as much future taxpayers. This would allow benefits as currently promised given the COLA increases baked in year after year to be paid in full and perhaps even enhanced. Hindsight is 20/20 but putting the SS into the market would have been a calamity given the looming crisis which had yet to occur when these plans were being discussed.


EDIT: So my solution after increasing retirement age and slowing COLA increase would be to give me what the system can afford. We all get those mailings saying as of right now they can only give me 75% of what is promised. Reset the thing and make the new promise the 75% of the old calculation and call it a day.
 
Last edited:
Re: Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

I don't believe the worker/retiree ratio is expected to go below 2:1 even at the peak Boomer retirement. I'm curious what happens after we're done with the Boomers however as the demographics may reset themselves closer to the norm or at least what was present when the program was founded.

Regarding using SS to pay down the deficit, my understanding is the SS Admin takes the tax collections and buys Treasuries which yield 2% (I'm assuming in real dollars) over your lifetime. Essentually its a promise that in the future the trust fund will give you back an extra 2% on what you contributed and paid for by future taxpayers and so on and so on. Seen in that context politicians aren't using SS proceeds to pay for other programs, although they can project a lower total deficit because their payouts to the current beneficiaries are lower than contributions. However, those contributions aren't being used to pay for a new aircraft carrier or tuition for illegal immigrants.

What Bush and to some extent Clinton were thinking of was getting a higher than 2% return paid for by the market and not as much future taxpayers. This would allow benefits as currently promised given the COLA increases baked in year after year to be paid in full and perhaps even enhanced. Hindsight is 20/20 but putting the SS into the market would have been a calamity given the looming crisis which had yet to occur when these plans were being discussed.


EDIT: So my solution after increasing retirement age and slowing COLA increase would be to give me what the system can afford. We all get those mailings saying as of right now they can only give me 75% of what is promised. Reset the thing and make the new promise the 75% of the old calculation and call it a day.

The only problem with buying treasuries is that you're basically buying from yourself. I could go into that paradox, but don't really want to at this point. The most important fundamental with wealth, though, is that excepting in the cases of nominal inflation or deflation (and many times that has been refuted), is that it falls into a law of conservation. In order for you to gain wealth, someone else must give it up. Ever since the beginning of money, the value of goods has been determined by a percentage of all that is available. This is one issue that I have with credit and loans is that it creates imaginary wealth.
 
The only problem with buying treasuries is that you're basically buying from yourself.

Yes this statement is correct. SS is basically a generational compact that Gen Y pays for Gen X + a 2% return and then Gen Z pays for Gen Y + a 2% return. Love it or hate it but that's the program IIRC.
 
Re: Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

Yes this statement is correct. SS is basically a generational compact that Gen Y pays for Gen X + a 2% return and then Gen Z pays for Gen Y + a 2% return. Love it or hate it but that's the program IIRC.

Where is this 2% promise coming from?
 
Where is this 2% promise coming from?

It would be the gain from owning the govt debt. Its going to yield more than you bought it for (a 2% gain in this case) and for SS purposes the borrower that's paying the $$$ back to you with interest is the next generation of workers.
 
Re: Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

It would be the gain from owning the govt debt. Its going to yield more than you bought it for (a 2% gain in this case) and for SS purposes the borrower that's paying the $$$ back to you with interest is the next generation of workers.

Not quite. There are no individual accounts in Social Security. No one person can say whether they will have a gain or a loss because of the "wild card" known as longevity. Some people will die early and if you were to measure a "rate of return" it would be a big loss; others will live a real long time and if you were to measure a "rate of return" it will be a huge gain (especially as payouts are indexed for inflation, when you toss in compounding then the ROR keeps going up the longer you live).

There's no doubt that the "true" economic measure of the magnitude of the unfunded liability for Social Security is much larger than anyone official is telling us. A well-funded plan would allow existing retirees to continue to receive benefits even if no further taxes were collected; and already we are paying out more in benefits than we are collecting in revenues.

Bernanke's [string of epithet] bond-buying is disastrous for almost everyone except the federal government. insurance companies are being squeezed terribly by low bond yields (a long time ago there were contracts that guaranteed a minimum 4% interest rate; you cannot find yields that high in highly-rated debt instruments anywhere these days, yet they have to find some way to honor those guarantees anyway). Savers get next to no interest on their savings. Speculative bubbles keep popping up left and right as people chase some kind of return. It is a terrible strategy; the one single thing it is good for is masking the true seriousness of our defict by artificially reducing the interest on the national debt. :(
 
Re: Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

I'm not sure if it was this thread or the Presidential thread, but there was some discussion regarding the cutting of defence budgets by $1T over the course of ten years. From the CATO Institute, here is an itemised look. Interested to hear what those who proposed this think:

http://www.downsizinggovernment.org/defense/proposed-cuts

In all fairness, here are some other ideas, HHS; they do propose the repeal of PPACA: http://www.downsizinggovernment.org/hhs/spending-cuts

Some decent stuff in here.
 
Re: Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

Because SS is not supposed to be a progressive tax. As it is, the rich already recieve less than they put in.

It's not a progressive tax. It's a flat tax if you remove the cap.
 
Re: Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

Because SS is not supposed to be a progressive tax. As it is, the rich already recieve less than they put in.

Hilarious. You do know the tax is REGRESSIVE, right? Are you seriously whining for the rich about a REGRESSIVE tax now?

Wow.
 
Re: Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

It's not a progressive tax. It's a flat tax if you remove the cap.

Not if you aren't going to get any additional benefits. Keep in mind the context of the original discussion was to completely remove any benefits for anyone over $XX in net worth. Unlike the income tax this is supposed to be a closed system.

*and before Scooby jumps in I know that the "trust fund" has been raided
 
Re: Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

Not if you aren't going to get any additional benefits. Keep in mind the context of the original discussion was to completely remove any benefits for anyone over $XX in net worth. Unlike the income tax this is supposed to be a closed system.

*and before Scooby jumps in I know that the "trust fund" has been raided

Lord knows the rich are getting screwed on Social Security. Lord, how do they survive???
 
Re: Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

Not if you aren't going to get any additional benefits. Keep in mind the context of the original discussion was to completely remove any benefits for anyone over $XX in net worth. Unlike the income tax this is supposed to be a closed system.

*and before Scooby jumps in I know that the "trust fund" has been raided

You still haven't addressed that it's a regressive tax. Thanks.
 
Re: Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

You still haven't addressed that it's a regressive tax. Thanks.

You act like the rich get something extra out of it. They don't. Are you truly such a greedy, desperate, and unfortunate soul that you must steal from others and give them nothing in return? If you want to talk about fair share, they put in a specific amount of money, and they get a specific benefit out. That sounds pretty fair to me.
 
Re: Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

I love that people whine and ***** for a flat tax and when you propose a truly flat tax they whine and ***** about the flat tax.
 
Re: Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

I love that people whine and ***** for a flat tax and when you propose a truly flat tax they whine and ***** about the flat tax.

Wish I could find a video clip of this...

"And the avarice... THE AVARICE NEVER ENDS!" --Jim Carrey, as The Grinch
 
Re: Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

Well, I was referring more towards anothe rposter. But my point stands. No "rich" person is ever going to get back as much as they put in. Nor should they.

To even use that as an argument against taxation is stunning.
 
Re: Strands in the Tapestry: the Business, Economics, and Tax Policy Thread

You act like the rich get something extra out of it. They don't. Are you truly such a greedy, desperate, and unfortunate soul that you must steal from others and give them nothing in return? If you want to talk about fair share, they put in a specific amount of money, and they get a specific benefit out. That sounds pretty fair to me.

Taxes are not theft. They're the cost of running a Western society.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top