My hypothesis is one of two things: One (and is probably the reasoning behind GWB's report of this during a State of the Union address), the ratio of workers to retirees is expected to drastically change now that the baby boomer generation is about to reach retirement age. Two, and is the reason why I asked this question earlier for some proof on this, is concerns that the surpluses are not being invested in order to account for helping against these unrealised debts, and are instead being used to attempt to balance the budget (which we know Clinton AND Dubya did, I don't know if others did or do though). If we're going to claim that it funds itself, then you truly need to keep the funding separate. The income from SS goes ONLY to SS, and anything extra goes ONLY to either a bank account or treasuries in order to collect interest, and then that money is used only for social security funding. As a good example, consider Harvard's endowment fund. According to someone I met during an ECAC hockey game, the interest generated from Harvard's endowment fund is enough to pay for everyone's tuition at that university. Why couldn't we look to do the same for Social Security?
I don't believe the worker/retiree ratio is expected to go below 2:1 even at the peak Boomer retirement. I'm curious what happens after we're done with the Boomers however as the demographics may reset themselves closer to the norm or at least what was present when the program was founded.
Regarding using SS to pay down the deficit, my understanding is the SS Admin takes the tax collections and buys Treasuries which yield 2% (I'm assuming in real dollars) over your lifetime. Essentually its a promise that in the future the trust fund will give you back an extra 2% on what you contributed and paid for by future taxpayers and so on and so on. Seen in that context politicians aren't using SS proceeds to pay for other programs, although they can project a lower total deficit because their payouts to the current beneficiaries are lower than contributions. However, those contributions aren't being used to pay for a new aircraft carrier or tuition for illegal immigrants.
What Bush and to some extent Clinton were thinking of was getting a higher than 2% return paid for by the market and not as much future taxpayers. This would allow benefits as currently promised given the COLA increases baked in year after year to be paid in full and perhaps even enhanced. Hindsight is 20/20 but putting the SS into the market would have been a calamity given the looming crisis which had yet to occur when these plans were being discussed.
EDIT: So my solution after increasing retirement age and slowing COLA increase would be to give me what the system can afford. We all get those mailings saying as of right now they can only give me 75% of what is promised. Reset the thing and make the new promise the 75% of the old calculation and call it a day.
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