Show me the money--Players turning pro

[LynahFan]

Re: Show me the money--Players turning pro

That actually is a pretty good article. The best part was the last paragraph:

"Sandelin agrees. “The best line I ever heard was that some kids don’t enjoy the journey; they’re worried about the destination. To me that’s what it’s all about when you’re playing hockey, or anything. You’ve got to enjoy the journey, and the destination will be there whenever. But everyone seems to want to get to the destination without enjoying the journey.” "

Sandelin may be a great coach, but he's no economist.

Say you're a 20-year old stud finishing your freshman year who can sign for the rookie max (~900,000 for 3 years). Let's also say that your NHL career will be over at age 35 no matter whether you stay in college or not, and you turn out to be a solid, but not spectacular player, so your NHL salary is ~$1.5M for the years not covered by your entry level contract. Since you ARE an economist, you are frugal and invest 80% of your salary each year at 5% interest. If you jump for the NHL right away, your "nest egg" at retirement will be ~$23M. If you stay in school for 3 more years, your rookie contract will only be 1 year, but you'd only have 12 seasons above the rookie max instead of 13, plus you'd lose 2 years of income at the rookie max. By the time you retire going this route, your nest egg is only ~$18M, so staying in school for those 3 years cost you $5M.

Would you pay $5M to enjoy the "journey" of three years in college? I certainly wouldn't - that's equivalent to a tuition bill of $1.7M per year. There is absolutely no way you could convince me that is worth the price.

And this is BEFORE you factor in the injury risk from ~120 more games played and goodness knows how many practices (not to mention the pool parties!).

 

[wasmania]

Re: Show me the money--Players turning pro

Sandelin may be a great coach, but he's no economist.

Say you're a 20-year old stud finishing your freshman year who can sign for the rookie max (~900,000 for 3 years). Let's also say that your NHL career will be over at age 35 no matter whether you stay in college or not, and you turn out to be a solid, but not spectacular player, so your NHL salary is ~$1.5M for the years not covered by your entry level contract. Since you ARE an economist, you are frugal and invest 80% of your salary each year at 5% interest. If you jump for the NHL right away, your "nest egg" at retirement will be ~$23M. If you stay in school for 3 more years, your rookie contract will only be 1 year, but you'd only have 12 seasons above the rookie max instead of 13, plus you'd lose 2 years of income at the rookie max. By the time you retire going this route, your nest egg is only ~$18M, so staying in school for those 3 years cost you $5M.

Would you pay $5M to enjoy the "journey" of three years in college? I certainly wouldn't - that's equivalent to a tuition bill of $1.7M per year. There is absolutely no way you could convince me that is worth the price.

And this is BEFORE you factor in the injury risk from ~120 more games played and goodness knows how many practices (not to mention the pool parties!).

Speaking of being not much of an economist, how does one save 80% of something they only net 60% or so of after taxes?

 

[LynahFan]

Re: Show me the money--Players turning pro

Speaking of being not much of an economist, how does one save 80% of something they only net 60% or so of after taxes?

Ha - fair point.

No matter the specific numbers, staying in school is ridiculously expensive and risky. I'd never advise my own kid to do it, and I'm 4th generation Ivy League on both sides of my family.

Edit: as an engineer, I just can't leave that hanging. With 40% taxes taken out, the cost of those three years of school is $2M instead of $5M.

 

[WildKitty]

Re: Show me the money--Players turning pro

UNH's Bobby Butler (that Hobey candidate at the top of the scoring chart) is playing with Ottowa for the rest of the season, then finishing his degree over the summer. Something about sports managment or policy or something. 3.6 GPA, or so I've heard!

As far as anyone else at UNH, I can't say. My heart is still broken.

You think I'd get used to it...

 

[observer85]

Re: Show me the money--Players turning pro

Ha - fair point.

No matter the specific numbers, staying in school is ridiculously expensive and risky. I'd never advise my own kid to do it, and I'm 4th generation Ivy League on both sides of my family.

Edit: as an engineer, I just can't leave that hanging. With 40% taxes taken out, the cost of those three years of school is $2M instead of $5M.

Risky yes but if the kid is on a full ride, that is not expensive. At an Ivy school, which you say you are from, it might make sense for a kid to leave and go back later - due to the lack of athletic scholarships. At a school where the school is footing the expense, especially 100% of the expense this might not be the case.

By staying in school, the player might have the chance to 1) finish school and close out that chapter of their lives, 2) get stronger in weight room (if that was needed), 3) get more confidence playing in more vital roles on your college team (PP, PK, etc) versus playing in a diminshed role on a AHL team or worst case, because the game is a business now, at the ECHL level.

 

[Nevergoodenough]

Re: Show me the money--Players turning pro

I'm not going to dispute this, HOWEVER, I would like to "ask the experts" what happens to the kid that doesn't make it up to the big league. Can you recalculate all of this based on the player that signs, but ends up in the AHL with a few trips up.. If I understand any of this, I know that signing for around $900,000 is based on playing a certain number of games in the NHL, and that this is reduced if the player stays in the AHL.

I'm not advocating that a player should stay in college, nor that they should sign early. This is something that each and every player/family must weigh on their own terms and not what some think is an absolute. Until we are actually in the shoes of someone (player/parent/advisor) it's all just an academic excercise. However, I did like the quote and that's why I posted it. All of this is a journey and what happens, happens..

 

[LynahFan]

Re: Show me the money--Players turning pro

Risky yes but if the kid is on a full ride, that is not expensive. At an Ivy school, which you say you are from, it might make sense for a kid to leave and go back later - due to the lack of athletic scholarships. At a school where the school is footing the expense, especially 100% of the expense this might not be the case.

By staying in school, the player might have the chance to 1) finish school and close out that chapter of their lives, 2) get stronger in weight room (if that was needed), 3) get more confidence playing in more vital roles on your college team (PP, PK, etc) versus playing in a diminshed role on a AHL team or worst case, because the game is a business now, at the ECHL level.

My "analysis" (if you want to dignify it with that term) did not figure in the cost of tuition, so I've already assumed the kid is on a full ride. If he's paying $50k per year for school on top, then the net cost of 3 extra years of school goes from $2M to $2.15M, an insignificant difference. The real cost is in the shortening of the NHL career and in the delaying of that career (time value of money).

The positive factors of staying in school that you mention are valid; the question is whether they are worth $2M?

 

[allnightwong]

Re: Show me the money--Players turning pro

Quinnipiac's 09-10 Captain Jean Marc Beaudoin has signed with Bakersfield of the ECHL.

 

[gscott13]

Re: Show me the money--Players turning pro

Denver's Rakhshani signed with Islanders and Wercioch leaves early, signing with Ottawa

with the signings, denver, between graduation and early defections, has lost 4 of it's top 5 scorers including the top 3 forwards and top defenseman...

 

[vizoroo]

Re: Show me the money--Players turning pro

Denver's Rakhshani signed with Islanders and Wercioch leaves early, signing with Ottawa

with the signings, denver, between graduation and early defections, has lost 4 of it's top 5 scorers including the top 3 forwards and top defenseman...

RRC line
Rakhshani and Ruegsegger to graduation--both completed graduation requirements at the end of winter quarter. BTW Ruegs had a 3.95 overall GPA. Rakhshani expected to be in Bridgeport Saturday night. Ruegsegger is a Leafs draft choice.

First round pick Colborne got $785k/$1.1 mil with bonuses, 3yrs with Bruins and is expected to be in Providence Friday night.

2nd round pick Dman Wiercioch got a 3 year contract from the Sens. $$ weren't announced.

Most DU fans expected Colborne and Wiercioch would not stay for 4 years, but it is a disappointment that they have played their last game for the Pioneers.

Rumors abound that All WCHA, CHN All American, Poty (WCHA, CHN) Goalie of the year (INCH) Junior Marc Cheverie will also go pro. Chevy, a Florida draft pick, could take advantage of the "Wheeler Rule" (4 years since being drafted) and become a free agent this summer.
Wait and see. Pins and needles.

 

[Puck Swami]

Re: Show me the money--Players turning pro

Denver has planned for all of these departures. It's a fact of life when you are recruiting and landing guys in the upper rounds of the NHL draft that most of them won't be staying around for four years.

I really don't mind players leaving early for the pros. College is a training ground for pros in all fields (as the NCAA reminds us) and if a player is good enough to get a pro offer in his chosen field, then by all means take it. You have your whole life to be a college student, but you don't have your whole life to be a pro hockey player. No one would bat an eye if a symphony orchestra offered a contract to a budding campus violinist to leave school, or a TV show offered a contract to a college actor to leave school or NASA offered a deal to a prodigy rocket scientist. These hockey players have trained hard their whole lives to be pro hockey players, and they are now in the top 1% of hockey players in the world if they get a pro offer. To put a finer point on this, there are about 1.5 million officially registered hockey players in the world (and a few million more unregistered ones, but we'll leave them out of this for now). There are about 6,000 pro hockey roster spots around the globe in full-time pro leagues, of which about 700 are NHL jobs.

Registered players in the world:

http://www.iihf.com/iihf-home/the-iihf/survey-of-players.html

 

[Happy]

Re: Show me the money--Players turning pro

Sandelin may be a great coach, but he's no economist.

Say you're a 20-year old stud finishing your freshman year who can sign for the rookie max (~900,000 for 3 years). Let's also say that your NHL career will be over at age 35 no matter whether you stay in college or not, and you turn out to be a solid, but not spectacular player, so your NHL salary is ~$1.5M for the years not covered by your entry level contract. Since you ARE an economist, you are frugal and invest 80% of your salary each year at 5% interest. If you jump for the NHL right away, your "nest egg" at retirement will be ~$23M. If you stay in school for 3 more years, your rookie contract will only be 1 year, but you'd only have 12 seasons above the rookie max instead of 13, plus you'd lose 2 years of income at the rookie max. By the time you retire going this route, your nest egg is only ~$18M, so staying in school for those 3 years cost you $5M.

Would you pay $5M to enjoy the "journey" of three years in college? I certainly wouldn't - that's equivalent to a tuition bill of $1.7M per year. There is absolutely no way you could convince me that is worth the price.

And this is BEFORE you factor in the injury risk from ~120 more games played and goodness knows how many practices (not to mention the pool parties!).

this works for the best talent, but for those just below that, it gets murkier. Especially if the player spends his rookie years in the AHL, getting the rookie AHL pay, that knocks a lot off your figures. The agents, and parents probably will push for the pros, because the agent doesn't get paid till a signing, and the parents sometimes have the ego.

 

[Puck Swami]

Re: Show me the money--Players turning pro

this works for the best talent, but for those just below that, it gets murkier. Especially if the player spends his rookie years in the AHL, getting the rookie AHL pay, that knocks a lot off your figures. The agents, and parents probably will push for the pros, because the agent doesn't get paid till a signing, and the parents sometimes have the ego.

Happy's right. A lot of parents treat a pro signing as the return on their own investment of years of shuttling little Johnny to hockey tournaments all over North America.

Even so, to even play a game in the AHL is to be in the top .003% of global hockey players. Pretty select company, and at $60-70K or so a year, it's a better living then most of their classmates are making at that age.

 

[Happy]

Re: Show me the money--Players turning pro

Ryan Flynn signed with nashville

 

[LynahFan]

Re: Show me the money--Players turning pro

Happy's right. A lot of parents treat a pro signing as the return on their own investment of years of shuttling little Johnny to hockey tournaments all over North America.

Even so, to even play a game in the AHL is to be in the top .003% of global hockey players. Pretty select company, and at $60-70K or so a year, it's a better living then most of their classmates are making at that age.

Yes, Happy is right. The math is definitely not as much in favor if you don't know you're going to the Show. However, just as you have to factor in risk of getting injured while staying in college, you can also factor in some "anti-risk" of making that 1 in 100 shot of getting to the NHL. Wouldn't you go for a 1 in 100 shot at a million dollars, knowing that in those other 99 times you could still go back and get a college degree?

 

[THE Icemom]

Re: Show me the money--Players turning pro

I am new to the men's side of the forum but was looking at the info about Weirchoch & Colburne leaving DU. DU fans knew Rhett and Tyler would be gone as they are seniors and congrats to both of them for graduating. My question is this...has anyone ever done research into how many of these guys who leave college early to pursue a pro career ever really go back to school and get their degree? I heard alot of you say "they can build a nest egg and go back later" or "NHL is once in a lifetime, they can go back to college later" but do they?

 

[Happy]

Re: Show me the money--Players turning pro

I am new to the men's side of the forum but was looking at the info about Weirchoch & Colburne leaving DU. DU fans knew Rhett and Tyler would be gone as they are seniors and congrats to both of them for graduating. My question is this...has anyone ever done research into how many of these guys who leave college early to pursue a pro career ever really go back to school and get their degree? I heard alot of you say "they can build a nest egg and go back later" or "NHL is once in a lifetime, they can go back to college later" but do they?

some do, and some don't, but the number that does is a thousand times higher than BB or FB.

 

[Got 6 Want More]

Re: Show me the money--Players turning pro

Brandon Bollig left SLU after 2 years to sign a 2-year deal with the Blackhawks. He also signed an ATO with Rockford to finish this season out.

 

[Puck Swami]

Re: Show me the money--Players turning pro

I am new to the men's side of the forum but was looking at the info about Weirchoch & Colburne leaving DU. DU fans knew Rhett and Tyler would be gone as they are seniors and congrats to both of them for graduating. My question is this...has anyone ever done research into how many of these guys who leave college early to pursue a pro career ever really go back to school and get their degree? I heard alot of you say "they can build a nest egg and go back later" or "NHL is once in a lifetime, they can go back to college later" but do they?

College hockey graduates about 80% of its players, and I would imagine that of the 20% who don't graduate on time, probably 25% of them will finish their degrees at some point, for a total graduation rate of close to 85%. The other 15% who never get a degree are probably about split between those who will financially set from hockey and don't need the degree, and perhaps 7 or 8% overall who never graduate and may have a tougher life and limited opportunities as a result. All in all, a pretty small number of 'damaged' players compared to football and basketball, where you are starting off with much lower graduation rates and many players who were unprepared for college level work in the first place.

 

[Osorojo]

Re: Show me the money--Players turning pro

College hockey graduates about 80% of its players, and I would imagine that of the 20% who don't graduate on time, probably 25% of them will finish their degrees at some point, for a total graduation rate of close to 85%. The other 15% who never get a degree are probably about split between those who will financially set from hockey and don't need the degree, and perhaps 7 or 8% overall who never graduate and may have a tougher life and limited opportunities as a result. All in all, a pretty small number of 'damaged' players compared to football and basketball, where you are starting off with much lower graduation rates and many players who were unprepared for college level work in the first place.

The 80 % graduation rate, does that refer to Division I hockey players? Does that graduation rate apply to the winningest Division I hocky programs, or does it include the graduation rate of all college hockey players in all divisions of college hockey?
When using specific statistics it's imperative to identify the specific population to which the statistics refer. Otherwise you expose yourself to charges you are attempting to deceive your audience, or you are relying upon an uneducated audience to decieve itself at your urging.