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That's the data mining answer...
The math based answer would be that most NHL teams carry about 22 players with the parent club. 18 skaters, 2 goalies and a couple of healthy scratches to keep everyone from getting too complacent. Based on that, I'd expect to see a goalie selected about every 11th selection or roughly 3 per round. So ignoring other factors, I would have predicted 4th round.
There are other factors to consider though. Among them is that goalies often mature later than skaters and may have longer careers as they are a little less prone to injury. On top of that, there is a certain je ne sais quois about good goalies and trying to predict their ability to play well under pressure is far from science (see Roberto Luongo for a recent pleasant example). All of these reasons would tend to make teams less likely to select goalies with their prime picks.
So, without data mining, I would expect a choice no earlier than 4th round. I would also expect the percentage of goalies chosen by round to increase as the draft goes on. So I'll say Kasdorf goes no later than the 6th, probably in the 5th and maybe in the 4th!
Feel free to ignore all of this and go back to your bickering folks!
That's the data mining answer...
The math based answer would be that most NHL teams carry about 22 players with the parent club. 18 skaters, 2 goalies and a couple of healthy scratches to keep everyone from getting too complacent. Based on that, I'd expect to see a goalie selected about every 11th selection or roughly 3 per round. So ignoring other factors, I would have predicted 4th round.
There are other factors to consider though. Among them is that goalies often mature later than skaters and may have longer careers as they are a little less prone to injury. On top of that, there is a certain je ne sais quois about good goalies and trying to predict their ability to play well under pressure is far from science (see Roberto Luongo for a recent pleasant example
So, without data mining, I would expect a choice no earlier than 4th round. I would also expect the percentage of goalies chosen by round to increase as the draft goes on. So I'll say Kasdorf goes no later than the 6th, probably in the 5th and maybe in the 4th!
Feel free to ignore all of this and go back to your bickering folks!
Wow I'm really hurt...I'm beginning to think you don't like me...does this mean a cold one after the Union/RPI @ Messofanarena at your establishment is off ? jeeeez !!!
USCHO was down all morning so far.
I don't know about you, but my first thought after the game at the messofa rink is to get the hell out of Schenectady as quickly as possible.
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Hey guys...quick note on Schenectady (I live right across from Union College)...been on the upswing (much like our beloved Cherry and White) lately and next time don't be in such a rush. After our victory at UC this upcoming season, I'll gladly buy the first round at 20 North Broadway Tavern (next to Pinhead Susan's)...great place, great owners, awesome wings, and $2 Busch pounders! Very laid back, down to earth atmosphere
Go RED!