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RPI Hockey 2012-2013 Part IV: Not A Finished Product Yet

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Re: RPI Hockey 2012-2013 Part IV: Not A Finished Product Yet

engineerhockeyfan said:
I know that everyone here loves this conversation, and that is what being a fan is all about, but I will say it again. If we win out, the conversation is moot.
We are capable of beating every team in our league, and we have made it very difficult for any team to come into the field house and win.
I like our chances no matter what our pwr ratings are.
Click to expand...
It's not really moot since the PWR would still govern where we are seeded. I certainly agree that us winning is the most important thing.
 
Re: RPI Hockey 2012-2013 Part IV: Not A Finished Product Yet

GRussinko said:
Just posted our chart of first round matchups and what the resultant second round matchups would be: http://www.withoutapeer.com/2013/03/2013-playoff-matchups.html

Fortunately Doc, only 3 out of 16 possible outcomes result in us playing Cornell. Unfortunately, those three scenarios are all relatively plausible, although the one that requires a Harvard win over Dartmouth not so much.

Overall odds of our second round opponent (strictly by the number of outcomes that result in this matchup, no simulations or KRACH or anything like that to determine what outcomes are actually likely):

Colgate: 4/16
Clarkson: 4/16
Princeton: 3/16
Cornell: 3/16
Brown: 2/16
Click to expand...

i can live with those numbers. Of course i want Clarkson most-Colgate wold be OK as would Princeton. I know we had only 1 tie to show against PU but we were just so much more dominant down here in Baker Rink and deserved a better fate. I just have so much history in my head and would least like to play Cornell for 2 reasons-they are a better playoff team than regular season team and they have a goaltender who can just steal a series. I must say though-that no matter who we play-they have to worry more about us than we do about them. And i cannot overemphasize how much better it is to play them in Troy. I am not an odds maker but i would say we now have a 70% chance to be in AC (never believed for a moment it would be that high earlier) and perhaps a 40% chance of being in the final. Since i consider that game a toss up with anyone-I would think we are at about 20% chance to win the ECAC championship.

As to the NCAA-I would give us a 50/50 chance of making the tournament as a 4th seed in one of the venues but we would then have to meet a number 1 seed and I am afraid that we would only have a 20% chance or less to move on. All of this though is as of now. Everything would change in 2 weeks if we have a good weekend. Just my 2¢ colored by my hopes and wishes for the boys to keep this going.
 
Re: RPI Hockey 2012-2013 Part IV: Not A Finished Product Yet

engineerhockeyfan said:
I know that everyone here loves this conversation, and that is what being a fan is all about, but I will say it again. If we win out, the conversation is moot.
Click to expand...

No offense, but you're wrong.

I get the whole "just win and you'll be in the tournament" argument since the autobid guarantees a trip, but it is far more complex than that when it comes to making the tournament a rewarding experience.

This argument is most frequently borne out of confusion about the PWR and its machinations and a wish to oversimplify things. If that is the goal it succeeds every time, and everyone knows you can qualify for the tournament with just winning as many games as you can, but if you make the tournament and just go to Michigan to get housed by a Frozen Four favorite, you get what you get.

Just getting tired of hearing this from people who wish to stay willfully ignorant of the PWR. That's fine, just don't go thumping your chest over it.
 
Re: RPI Hockey 2012-2013 Part IV: Not A Finished Product Yet

Ralph Baer said:
It's not really moot since the PWR would still govern where we are seeded. I certainly agree that us winning is the most important thing.
Click to expand...

Again we fully agree-every possible PWR point is important. If we keep winning sure it is the most important thing. But being able to reach an 11 seed in the NCAA is just so much more important than being a number 12-16. You just do not want to have to face a number 1 seed if you can avoid it for a game. You just never know if someone else can knock them off and then you do not have to face them to get to the last 4 spots. Would love to turn the clock back and get a couple of points we gave away earlier this season (or any that were just taken from us:mad:)
 
Re: RPI Hockey 2012-2013 Part IV: Not A Finished Product Yet

engineerhockeyfan said:
I know that everyone here loves this conversation, and that is what being a fan is all about, but I will say it again. If we win out, the conversation is moot.
We are capable of beating every team in our league, and we have made it very difficult for any team to come into the field house and win.
I like our chances no matter what our pwr ratings are.
Click to expand...
We want to beat a TUC twice at the field house and then have them remain a TUC. Check out the pairwise when you get a chance and you'll notice how many teams are floating around a 500 record against TUC's. A game here and there matters.

If we win the ECAC then sure we are in. But if we finish 2nd or 3rd then we need to be as far up the TUC list as we can get.
 
Re: RPI Hockey 2012-2013 Part IV: Not A Finished Product Yet

For those more mathematical than I am-just some interesting percentages to truly appreciate what this team did against SLU and CCT this year. Our winning percentage in regualr season games against both teams at home and away.
Against SLU-Home winning 56% Winning away in Canton 28%
Against CCT-Home winning 35% Winning away in Potsdam 23%

This does not include neutral sites or games played at either site in playoffs. I will let others do the calculation to see what the odds are of us winning all four games in any one year9Which we did this year for the first time ever).
 
Re: RPI Hockey 2012-2013 Part IV: Not A Finished Product Yet

Gutty win last night - good challenge for the guys, leading up to playoff time. Thanks to the 'classy' SLU d-bag fans seated in front of us for giving our section someone to heckle all night, aside from Weninger.

Something I had to share - as Al was introducing the senior class after the game, he remarked how this group had one appearance in the NCAA tournament. Noticing a convenient break in speech, and the timing was right, I yelled out 'Let's get one more!' Bailen then looked up at our section, and nodded most convincingly.

They are hungry. Let's do this.
 
Re: RPI Hockey 2012-2013 Part IV: Not A Finished Product Yet

DrDemento said:
But never forget it WAS in Canton-and our record over the years there is dismal-almost as dismal as in Potsdam. And I believe all their goals were Power PLays that night. I need to sit down and do a comparison most of our 996 wins if possible and see what our record is in HFH versus on the road against each of the teams. I would probably only go back to the 1950's since i have this feeling that way back, the games were just called so much differently in different venues. Being the home team in hockey has far more advantages than in many other sports simply because of being able to match up your lines and defensemen. Being able to get your best defensive line out there against the opponent's top line after every face off-can often be a huge advantage. Even just getting the right face off man out there to take the draw against specific players can make all the difference in a game.
Click to expand...

Dr. D: Including the earlier 4-3 OT win by the Engineers (man, would we like that point back!) SLU leads the series between the two teams in Canton 43-18-2 while RPI now has a 34-26-4 advantage at the Field House after last night's win. This year's edition of RPI's hockey team is as solid as I have seen since the end of the 90s. Good luck in the quarters.
 
Re: RPI Hockey 2012-2013 Part IV: Not A Finished Product Yet

DrDemento said:
For those more mathematical than I am-just some interesting percentages to truly appreciate what this team did against SLU and CCT this year. Our winning percentage in regualr season games against both teams at home and away.
Against SLU-Home winning 56% Winning away in Canton 28%
Against CCT-Home winning 35% Winning away in Potsdam 23%

This does not include neutral sites or games played at either site in playoffs. I will let others do the calculation to see what the odds are of us winning all four games in any one year9Which we did this year for the first time ever).
Click to expand...

Unless I lose at math, based on the numbers you list the odds of winning all 4 games in one season is about 1.3%.
 
Re: RPI Hockey 2012-2013 Part IV: Not A Finished Product Yet

jmhusker said:
We want to beat a TUC twice at the field house and then have them remain a TUC. Check out the pairwise when you get a chance and you'll notice how many teams are floating around a 500 record against TUC's. A game here and there matters.

If we win the ECAC then sure we are in. But if we finish 2nd or 3rd then we need to be as far up the TUC list as we can get.
Click to expand...

I guess this is what i have been trying to say and you did it so much more succinctly. We have not been in this position very often lately. A chance to get into the tournament. But as we discovered a couple years ago-getting in and having to meet a powerhouse in the first round can be a nightmare and a quick exit. The ideal situation is to not only get in but be just above that 13th seed.
 
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Re: RPI Hockey 2012-2013 Part IV: Not A Finished Product Yet

elsid said:
Dr. D: Including the earlier 4-3 OT win by the Engineers (man, would we like that point back!) SLU leads the series between the two teams in Canton 43-18-2 while RPI now has a 34-26-4 advantage at the Field House after last night's win. This year's edition of RPI's hockey team is as solid as I have seen since the end of the 90s. Good luck in the quarters.
Click to expand...

Pretty sure my numbers are the same. Canton has been a nightmare for us for as long as i go back(1963). Potsdam has even been slightly worse. We have gone up there with some very good teams-and walked away empty handed very often.
 
Re: RPI Hockey 2012-2013 Part IV: Not A Finished Product Yet

GRussinko said:
Unless I lose at math, based on the numbers you list the odds of winning all 4 games in one season is about 1.3%.
Click to expand...
That would be true if the numbers aren't correlated, but they are correlated in that we are more likely to win each of the games in years when we are good and CCT and SLU are not good. OTOH, 1.3% isn't far from once in 61 years (every year starting in 52-53).
 
Re: RPI Hockey 2012-2013 Part IV: Not A Finished Product Yet

GRussinko said:
Unless I lose at math, based on the numbers you list the odds of winning all 4 games in one season is about 1.3%.
Click to expand...

Would any sane person take that bet? Until this year we swept the North Country trip 4 times-with once being the 1985 team that pretty much swept everyone. The biggest surprise was a few years ago when we had a team with a far less than .500 record go up and sweep. The fact that our 2 best teams in history, 83-84 and 84-85 did not do it is testament to the fact that this is one of the hardest achievements we have ever accomplished. Statistically for us-it is about as difficult as winning the National Championship which we have done twice(before this year);)
 
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Re: RPI Hockey 2012-2013 Part IV: Not A Finished Product Yet

Ralph Baer said:
That would be true if the numbers aren't correlated, but they are correlated in that we are more likely to win each of the games in years when we are good and CCT and SLU are not good. OTOH, 1.3% isn't far from once in 61 years (every year starting in 52-53).
Click to expand...

Interesting way to look at it. And i am sure it affects the numbers. But I would still figure the chances of sweeping the 4 games is in the 1% level. And if teams that went 35-2-1 and 34-6 could not do it-well, it must mean something.
 
Re: RPI Hockey 2012-2013 Part IV: Not A Finished Product Yet

Red Cloud said:
No offense, but you're wrong.

I get the whole "just win and you'll be in the tournament" argument since the autobid guarantees a trip, but it is far more complex than that when it comes to making the tournament a rewarding experience.

This argument is most frequently borne out of confusion about the PWR and its machinations and a wish to oversimplify things. If that is the goal it succeeds every time, and everyone knows you can qualify for the tournament with just winning as many games as you can, but if you make the tournament and just go to Michigan to get housed by a Frozen Four favorite, you get what you get.

Just getting tired of hearing this from people who wish to stay willfully ignorant of the PWR. That's fine, just don't go thumping your chest over it.
Click to expand...

I understand your argument, but we are not just winning, be are dominating and we are not a 15 seed, even though that is what is posted. If we continue the process, we will hold our own against anyone.
This is not the same team that went to the tournament a couple of years ago. Backing in and getting tossed.
We are good, and winning will get us there and I expect that some midwest powerhouse will take us lightly and wind up going home.
I don't know how far this team can go this year, but if we get in, no matter what the PWR says, we will make some noise.
Just keep winning.
 
Re: RPI Hockey 2012-2013 Part IV: Not A Finished Product Yet

Remember the ECAC Pick The Playoffs thread is up and running. You have until 7PM on Friday to get your first round picks in.
 
Re: RPI Hockey 2012-2013 Part IV: Not A Finished Product Yet

engineerhockeyfan said:
I understand your argument, but we are not just winning, be are dominating and we are not a 15 seed, even though that is what is posted. If we continue the process, we will hold our own against anyone.
This is not the same team that went to the tournament a couple of years ago. Backing in and getting tossed.
We are good, and winning will get us there and I expect that some midwest powerhouse will take us lightly and wind up going home.
I don't know how far this team can go this year, but if we get in, no matter what the PWR says, we will make some noise.
Just keep winning.
Click to expand...
I understand what you are saying here. If we could start the tournament today and go to Manchester against UNH I for one would be ecstatic. I know they think they would roll over us in a rematch and not only would I love to see us take it to them but I'd also like to see some of their hick fans crying in the stands (no we didn't enjoy the atmosphere in Durham in January). And I say this even though I play hockey with a number of their alums who I consider good friends.

That all said... If we don't finish at least 3rd in the tournament then we need luck to get in. And to do that we likely need to beat Union, Yale or Q. If we don't and there is as upset in HE, CCHA or WCHA then we will be in trouble.
 
Re: RPI Hockey 2012-2013 Part IV: Not A Finished Product Yet

By KRACH, we are most likely to play Brown (by a hair).

Brown - 27.4%
Cornell - 27.2%
Princeton - 18.1%
Clarkson - 15.8%
Colgate - 11.5%

Most likely matchup for other teams:
Quinnipiac - Colgate
Yale - SLU
Union - Dartmouth
(Yes, I spot the contradiction, but that's how it shakes out on a team-by-team level.)

The most likely QFs are:
Quinnipiac - Cornell
RPI - Brown
Yale - SLU
Union - Dartmouth
 
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