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RPI 2021-22 Restart

The game tonight was about as predicted. Nice to see the level of compete from Post, a struggling new team. Good game Emilie Venne.
 
About as expected. 4 goals on 52 shots - the Post goalie did play well but the Engineers will need to convert at a bit higher rate to continue the win streak. As suspected, they had a bit more time and space and the players could do a bit more than in league play. The goal by the younger sister was entertaining to watch. A few dumb "too many players" penalties due to the mixed-up lines I guess. Puck movement was good, zone exits much better but still did not enter the zone well. Not too worried on that as in league play, they will have to get back to dump and chase and score on grit.
 
I just finished watching the RPI-Harvard game. In truth, I cheated a little and only watched the second half of the game because that was the positive part for the good guys. The women stayed within their system, hustled throughout and showed surprising mental toughness for team that was coming off two years where just about everything that could go wrong did. Rallying from 3-0 down on the road against a highly ranked team shows they can compete with anyone if they play their game. Of course it helps to have a stone wall in net. Rampado follows in a great tradition.

One last note - I hate 3x3 overtime. It takes a back-and-forth physical game - yes, I know it's a "non-body checking" game, but along the boards and in front of the net it's still physical - and turns it into a figure skating exhibition where priority is placed on a team gaining and maintaining possession of the puck for extended periods because of the massive expanse of open ice. It might be a fun game, but it's not hockey.
 
The team showed a lot of grit to come back. Another OT loss. We can bellyache about how much we don't like 3x3 OT, but it is part of the game at every level now and teams have to take that into account. 3x3 is all about skill, both stick and skating. RPI wins by grit and is exposed in 3x3. Be happy for the point against (again) a top 10 team.
 
Cornholio said:
The team showed a lot of grit to come back. Another OT loss. We can bellyache about how much we don't like 3x3 OT, but it is part of the game at every level now and teams have to take that into account. 3x3 is all about skill, both stick and skating. RPI wins by grit and is exposed in 3x3. Be happy for the point against (again) a top 10 team.
Click to expand...

Neither our men's or women's team has had success with 3x3 so far.
 
Just over a third of the way through the season, it seemed like it was time to post here again. RPI remains in a tough spot, as they seem headed for a dogfight with Cornell for the last playoff spot, with a road win necessary to pull even in the head-to-head tiebreaker. All told, this projection gives 2:1 odds against RPI making the playoffs and better than even odds to end up in 9th place. If RPI really does want to make the postseason, they're going to have to pull off an upset or two or have Cornell fall off completely.

Code: 
   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  865.0 |  [B]75.0[/B]  16.3   5.7   2.1   0.7   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x |  1.38 | 53.93
Ya |  444.9 |  11.5  [B]34.2[/B]  25.4  15.9   9.0   3.9   0.2   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  2.89 | 47.81
Cg |  436.4 |   6.6  22.6  [B]24.8[/B]  20.8  15.4   9.1   0.7   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  3.46 | 46.07
Ck |  286.5 |   4.6  14.4  19.9  [B]22.8[/B]  21.3  15.6   1.2   0.1   0.0     x   0.0     x |  3.94 | 44.49
Ha |  360.4 |   1.6   6.8  13.6  21.7  [B]28.4[/B]  25.8   1.9   0.2   0.0   0.0     x     x |  4.54 | 42.55
Pr |  216.9 |   0.8   5.7  10.4  16.4  23.8  [B]37.3[/B]   4.9   0.7   0.1   0.0     x     x |  4.92 | 41.14
SL |  105.1 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.9   4.8  [B]45.1[/B]  32.8  13.7   2.2   0.3   0.0 |  7.60 | 28.55
Cr |   83.3 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   3.2  37.4  [B]38.1[/B]  17.1   3.1   0.6   0.0 |  7.79 | 27.63
RP |   81.8 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   8.1  24.3  [B]51.3[/B]  12.8   3.1   0.2 |  8.78 | 23.01
Da |   37.4 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.4   2.6  11.7  [B]48.1[/B]  29.3   7.9 | 10.27 | 16.53
Br |   22.5 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   1.1   5.8  26.4  [B]42.9[/B]  23.6 | 10.82 | 14.04
Un |   16.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.4   7.3  23.9  [B]68.3[/B] | 11.60 | 10.23

EDIT: This is all wrong. Also can we not do strikethrough any more??????
 
Last edited:
I'd say that is about right odds. Need to beat both Cornell and St. Lawrence on their ice in regulation, as well as take both from Brown, beat Dartmouth at home and maybe steal a win or two from the 'upper half' to make the playoffs. The losses to Cornell and St. Lawrence at home has put the team behind the 8-ball a bit.
 
Whoops, looks like I wasn't handling overtime games right! Let's look at this again:
Code: 
   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  865.0 |  [B]81.3[/B]  12.6   4.0   1.5   0.5   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x |  1.28 | 53.93
Ya |  444.9 |   9.4  [B]37.9[/B]  23.8  15.2   9.1   4.4   0.2   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  2.91 | 47.03
Cg |  436.4 |   2.5  15.2  21.1  [B]22.2[/B]  21.0  16.0   1.8   0.2   0.0   0.0     x     x |  4.00 | 43.64
Ha |  360.4 |   3.1  13.8  20.1  [B]22.4[/B]  21.7  17.4   1.4   0.1   0.0     x     x     x |  4.04 | 43.55
Ck |  286.5 |   2.7  12.0  17.5  20.5  [B]22.6[/B]  22.5   2.0   0.2   0.0   0.0     x     x |  4.25 | 42.91
Pr |  216.9 |   0.9   8.5  13.4  17.9  23.3  [B]30.8[/B]   4.5   0.6   0.1   0.0     x     x |  4.68 | 41.57
SL |  105.1 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   1.3   6.1  [B]51.2[/B]  26.9  12.6   1.3   0.1   0.0 |  7.46 | 29.92
Cr |   83.3 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   2.2  26.0  [B]37.8[/B]  28.4   4.5   0.7   0.0 |  8.08 | 26.92
RP |   81.8 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.6  12.5  31.6  [B]45.7[/B]   8.0   1.5   0.0 |  8.53 | 25.01
Da |   37.4 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.3   1.8   8.2  [B]48.4[/B]  32.8   8.5 | 10.37 | 16.53
Br |   22.5 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.8   4.8  31.1  [B]43.6[/B]  19.6 | 10.76 | 14.77
Un |   16.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   6.7  21.3  [B]71.8[/B] | 11.65 | 10.23

So this puts the odds at more like 55/45 against making the playoffs. If we look a little more closely, the lowest possible point total that gets us in is 20, but the odds don't become better than 50% until we hit 26 points (or one more than we're currently projected to earn). We become a "lock" at 31 points, so let's just pull 20 points in the back half.
 
Oh and looking way forward to the next ECAC weekend, our playoff odds hold steady as long as we pull at least three points, and improve to >50% if we pull at least four. Conversely, going pointless would drop us to ~3:1 against.
Code: 
   Ya|   W |  OW |   T |  OL |   L 
Br   |     |     |     |     |    
-----------------------------------
 W   | 67.3| 59.8| 56.9| 52.8| 46.3
 OW  | 60.0| 53.5| 49.5| 47.0| 39.0
 T   | 55.9| 49.4| 45.3| 41.6| 35.4
 OL  | 53.0| 45.4| 41.9| 37.6| 31.5 
 L   | 45.6| 38.0| 34.1| 31.0| 24.9
 
Cornell pulls a Middlebury and shuts down the campus. All finals on-line. All university events (including athletics) suspended. What is the over/under on the rest of the Ivy league having a "spike" and shuts down, and RPI follows suit? Can Harvard really allow Cornell to "lead" here?
 
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