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RPI 2014-2015: Goin' back to the playoffs

Re: RPI 2014-2015: Goin' back to the playoffs

We won another game! Plan the parade!

RPI KRACH (RRWP): 25.28 (.2599)

MCTs (Mean/Median/Mode/Range):
Points - 13.09 / 13 / 13 / 4 - 26
Rank - 9.43 / 9 / 9 / 4 - 12
Playoffs - 4.4%
Most likely opponent - Harvard (2.4%)

Conference rankings:
  1. Harvard
  2. Quinnipiac
  3. Clarkson
  4. Cornell
    —————
  5. SLU
  6. Princeton
  7. Dartmouth
  8. Yale
    —————
    —————
  9. RPI
  10. Union
  11. Colgate
  12. Brown
 
Re: RPI 2014-2015: Goin' back to the playoffs

Hey they have a chance to go 4-3 over their last 7 games if they can beat Providence today. They better hope for the W because they're likely to lose their next 4 games straight.
 
Re: RPI 2014-2015: Goin' back to the playoffs

shelfit said:
Hey they have a chance to go 4-3 over their last 7 games if they can beat Providence today. They better hope for the W because they're likely to lose their next 4 games straight.
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Eh, As much as it would be good from a moral standpoint to win this one, it doesn't matter at all. It's not like we're going to grab an at-large spot. As for the next four ECAC battles, Dartmouth is probably the most winnable, and one we'll want to win if we're to fight into the top 8.
 
Re: RPI 2014-2015: Goin' back to the playoffs

RPI plays their biggest game of the year this Friday against Dartmouth. Over the 8 seasons that the ECAC has been a 12-team conference, the eighth place team has usually come in with about 17 points (mean 17.6, median 17.5) and the ninth place team has been about 15 (mean 15.6, median 15). So I figure that RPI needs to pick up about 11-14 points in their remaining 14 games. Lets assume that they win all of their remaining games against teams below them (Colgate, Brown, Union). That would get them 10 of the those points but none of those games will be easy, so lets assume that if they get hot they pick up 8 of those points. That means that they still need 2 or 3 wins against middle of the pack teams. If they can start with a win against Dartmouth on Friday there is hope. If they can't, there is only prayer.
 
Re: RPI 2014-2015: Goin' back to the playoffs

hab said:
RPI plays their biggest game of the year this Friday against Dartmouth. Over the 8 seasons that the ECAC has been a 12-team conference, the eighth place team has usually come in with about 17 points (mean 17.6, median 17.5) and the ninth place team has been about 15 (mean 15.6, median 15). So I figure that RPI needs to pick up about 11-14 points in their remaining 14 games. Lets assume that they win all of their remaining games against teams below them (Colgate, Brown, Union). That would get them 10 of the those points but none of those games will be easy, so lets assume that if they get hot they pick up 8 of those points. That means that they still need 2 or 3 wins against middle of the pack teams. If they can start with a win against Dartmouth on Friday there is hope. If they can't, there is only prayer.
Click to expand...

Here I go quoting myself again. We dropped the Dartmouth game so I guess that puts us into prayer territory :(...but I'm a true believer ;). The only saving grace is that Yale dropped both of their games, so we are still only 4 points out of the playoffs. I thought we looked okay against Dartmouth. We were totally outclassed by Harvard in the first period (shots 16-1 and score 3-0) so I stopped watching. Looking at the stats, it looks like the team put in a strong effort in the final 2 periods, so that's a good sign.
 
Re: RPI 2014-2015: Goin' back to the playoffs

hab said:
I didn't see this announcement back in November, but it looks like the Engineers will be bringing in another SSM grad next year: Taylor Schwalbe, from Anchorage Alaska, forward, shoots left. http://ssmhockey.org/news/seven-hockey-players-sign-national-letters-of-intent/
Click to expand...

It is very hard to keep up with women recruits. This SSM preview from 9/24 already states that she committed to RPI.
“A lot of our juniors are high-caliber players,” said Schwalbe, who’s committed to play at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) next year. “We have a lot of juniors stepping up in big roles.”
Click to expand...
 
Re: RPI 2014-2015: Goin' back to the playoffs

Back to no point weekends. Not good. We have to be able to steal points from teams like Dartmouth if we want to get into 8th.

RPI KRACH (RRWP): 22.64 (.2417)

MCTs (Mean/Median/Mode/Range):
Points - 11.96 / 12 / 12 / 4 - 25
Rank - 9.56 / 9 / 9 / 5 - 12
Playoffs - 2.7%
Most likely opponent - Harvard (1.5%)

Conference rankings:
  1. Harvard
  2. Quinnipiac
  3. Clarkson
  4. Cornell
    —————
  5. SLU
  6. Princeton
  7. Dartmouth
  8. Yale
    —————
    —————
  9. RPI
  10. Union
  11. Colgate
  12. Brown

We're projected to earn about 7 points less than Yale, so we need to start winning a few games against teams ranked above us. Just picking up the 10 points against Union, Colgate, and Brown won't be enough pass Yale (assuming they also win all remaining games against those teams). RPI does play Yale one more time (in New Haven, Feb. 13), so we need to give ourselves a chance for that game to mean something, and then win it.

EDIT: I just reran the simulation with us having won the five games against Union/Colgate/Brown, our chance of making the playoffs only jumps to 24.4%. So yeah, we have to steal some points. Winning those five AND the Yale game puts us at almost a 70% chance to finish in the top 8. We're by no means out of this, but we have to win games.
 
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Re: RPI 2014-2015: Goin' back to the playoffs

shelfit said:
Just to restate RPI's playoff hopes. It's just not going to happen. Sorry if that sounds negative but reality is reality.
Click to expand...

Fortunately, these things get decided by a team of athletes on the ice, not by you. They have a huge challenge ahead, but I'm behind them, and you're not.
 
Re: RPI 2014-2015: Goin' back to the playoffs

hab said:
Fortunately, these things get decided by a team of athletes on the ice, not by you. They have a huge challenge ahead, but I'm behind them, and you're not.
Click to expand...

You are correct, and so am I.
 
Re: RPI 2014-2015: Goin' back to the playoffs

shelfit said:
Just to restate RPI's playoff hopes. It's just not going to happen. Sorry if that sounds negative but reality is reality.
Click to expand...

Right now, we're entirely capable of making the playoffs. If we lose one of the games I mentioned, then we have to start taking down the big guys (Clarkson, SLU, Cornell). If we win the games we should and lose the games we shouldn't, it pretty much entirely comes down to the Yale game.

For this weekend coming up, any points we earned would be bonus. I'll admit that I'm not particularly optimistic about taking points in the North Country (especially against CCT), but if we could pull a tie or even shock one of them with a win, it would be a huge boon for our chances.
 
Re: RPI 2014-2015: Goin' back to the playoffs

Ralph Baer said:
I haven't checked the RPI directory recently but this has appeared:

Name: Josefine Lund Hansen
Class:
Curriculum: Biology
Click to expand...

A second:

Name: Makenna Nicole Thomas
Class: First-Year Student
Curriculum: Business and Management
 
Re: RPI 2014-2015: Goin' back to the playoffs

and another in the directory:

Name: Ana Amelia Orzechowski
Class: First-Year Student
Curriculum: Business and Management
 
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Re: RPI 2014-2015: Goin' back to the playoffs

shelfit said:
Might want to rename this thread, "Goin' back to the drawing board."
Click to expand...

Nope. I'll give up on this team when one of these two things happens: 1) they are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs; or 2) they start playing like they have given up on themselves. Nowhere close to either of those things happening.
 
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