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RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

I checked the WaP (realet) picks. We agreed on almost all. I'd like to study the ones where we didn't.

The first is Dartmouth-Harvard. I picked Dartmouth because of the damage they can cause to other teams that are near-contenders. If Dartmouth wins two, they move up the ranks and sit right behind RPI. But they take a matchup from Union, Wisconsin, and Providence in order to get there, thus setting those back. On the contrary, if Dartmouth loses two, then BU, Alaska, and Robert Morris gain one matchup each, by taking them from Dartmouth. I would say that Dartmouth's gains are the lesser evil as compared to those other six inching up. All things equal, I'd rather see lower teams move ahead of higher teams in the 17-30 range, nullifying each others' gains on RPI.

Further, two Dartmouth losses actually deducts 0.0005 from Brown's RPI. We want Brown to get all the help they can - every bit counts.

I know you were looking farther out at a Union matchup (where Union could score some TUC wins against Da) and even into NCAA travel. Even with those, I'm still thinking we root for Dartmouth. What do you think?
 
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Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

Next is BC vs UVM. WaP picked UVM for an upset. I picked BC to help ensure that Providence does not win the HEA, which is admittedly a minor benefit. However, if UVM sweeps BC then both Niagara and Notre Dame flip their matchups with BC. The BC flip puts each of them a little more ahead of us. I'm sure I'm missing some nuance to this, but on its face it looks like we want BC.
 
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Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

The last was WaP rooting for Michigan Tech upsetting Colorado College. Two losses would drop CC as a TUC. As a result, Alaska and Dartmouth would each gain one matchup point against RPI, and Wisconsin would gain two. The biggest loser would be St. Cloud, dropping two and possibly coming into reach if RPI keeps climbing. Tough call, and depends on how St Cloud fares against Wisconsin, and how far RPI goes. I think I'll root for a total Badger beatdown, meaning CC and St Cloud wins.
 
Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

RPI92,
You've succeeeded in giving me a headache. :D Seriously, after a few minutes of looking at things, I decided to wait to see if realet responds. The probably answer is that there there are some scenarios that help us in some ways and hurt us in others, and it depends upon what is the most important. Is it, for example, more important to defend our current position or increase our chances of moving up?
 
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Ralph Baer said:
RPI92,
You've succeeeded in giving me a headache.
Click to expand...

Sorry, as an RPI grad, no amount of pedantic analysis can satisfy me. I was never more proud of my alma mater as in 2011 when we computed the precise odds of making the tournament with at least 2 weeks still to go.

Ralph Baer said:
Is it, for example, more important to defend our current position or increase our chances of moving up?
Click to expand...

Now that is a great question. In a situation like this, I prefer to select a rank to optimize for. Based on some poor showings outside the conference I suggest mentally calibrating to try to pick up at most three more places and lose no more than one.

If RPI places first, second, third in the tournament (1 loss), I would like to have a shot to pass any or all of: Yale, Notre Dame, Western Mich, or Niagara if they falter.

If RPI places fourth (two losses) or splits and wins or loses the first series then I want to hold 15-16th if that's at all possible. It might not be, but that won't change my thinking this weekend.

What nets out is that I wind up rooting against every team in the range between say #11-#26 this weekend, and #11-#18 most acutely. I'm indifferent to #1-10 and #27+ so I look at any scenario only in terms of how it would harm teams in the target range.
 
Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

RPI92 said:
Sorry, as an RPI grad, no amount of pedantic analysis can satisfy me. I was never more proud of my alma mater as in 2011 when we computed the precise odds of making the tournament with at least 2 weeks still to go.
Click to expand...
I understand completely. Please note the smiley.
 
Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

Rather than get into a lengthy and minute discussion, I'm just going to say... John 19:22.
 
Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

Aspydad
I don't know... maybe how glad they are to see the end of the Paul Stewart era? Just speculation.

He is back just like Jordan wearing the 45 although Jordan was retired for more than a year the first time around. Nice try though buddy but I knew you wouldn't be able to stay away.
 
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Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

Stay@homeDad said:
Aspydad
I don't know... maybe how glad they are to see the end of the Paul Stewart era? Just speculation.

He is back just like Jordan wearing the 45 although Jordan was retired for more than a year the first time around. Nice try though buddy but I knew you wouldn't be able to stay away.
Click to expand...

Or perhaps Coach was asking about Kyle Flanagan. Given there wasn't too much animosity (at least that could be seen), I'm not sure if it would even be anything bad.
 
Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

I haven't been on the board since yesterday morning.
Welcome back Aspydad, and welcome to the new students posting on the board.
For those of us that do not know, can someone explain "who wants screech"?
I hate not having games to watch/listen to this weekend. However, considering the reason, I am happy that we do not have games this weekend.
Do we have any injured players that could return for the playoffs?
 
Re: RPI 2013 Part V: Who Wants Screech?

RPI92 said:
Sorry, as an RPI grad, no amount of pedantic analysis can satisfy me. I was never more proud of my alma mater as in 2011 when we computed the precise odds of making the tournament with at least 2 weeks still to go.



Now that is a great question. In a situation like this, I prefer to select a rank to optimize for. Based on some poor showings outside the conference I suggest mentally calibrating to try to pick up at most three more places and lose no more than one.

If RPI places first, second, third in the tournament (1 loss), I would like to have a shot to pass any or all of: Yale, Notre Dame, Western Mich, or Niagara if they falter.

If RPI places fourth (two losses) or splits and wins or loses the first series then I want to hold 15-16th if that's at all possible. It might not be, but that won't change my thinking this weekend.

What nets out is that I wind up rooting against every team in the range between say #11-#26 this weekend, and #11-#18 most acutely. I'm indifferent to #1-10 and #27+ so I look at any scenario only in terms of how it would harm teams in the target range.
Click to expand...

I like this post:)-not only can I understand it, but I actually agree with it. The last sentence really sums it up quite nicely. I could not figure any way for us to get higher than PWR 12 and so I figured let everyone who is that far up just keep winning and drop others down. At the same time wanting any team close to us or below to lose so we do not get caught. I know it is more complicated than that but my medicare aged brain can only handle simple concepts now that i am 46+ years post an excellent RPI education (many thanks to Dr. Dis Maly for even making it possible for me to understand any of these numbers):rolleyes:
 
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