>>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<

[jflory81]

Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<

Technically, RIT only dominated this conference once, in 2010. Although one may argue they did again in the 2011 regular season, but losing in the tournament puts a wet blanket over that. They won the tournament in 2015 and 2016, but were far from dominant through those regular seasons. They just played their best for a couple weekends when it mattered most.

Eh, they won at least a share of 4 regular season championships in 5 years, culminating in that 1-0 Air Force loss in 2011 where RIT was clearly the better team and just couldn't put the puck in the net (to a much greater extent than the UNO game you're talking about, where I thought the Tigers were held mostly to the periphery and didn't really create too many grade A looks - I remember the Garbowsky line creating one midway through the 3rd, but other than that it was all stuff I expected a goalie the caliber of Massa to stop). They won 92 conference games in 5 years, and their winning percentage over that period was .719.
I don't have a problem calling them dominant over that span (especially when also including Air Force as dominant) with that record, even if stuff did tend to happen to them in the single elimination playoffs.

 

[TigerFan86-87]

Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<

Eh, they won at least a share of 4 regular season championships in 5 years, culminating in that 1-0 Air Force loss in 2011 where RIT was clearly the better team and just couldn't put the puck in the net (to a much greater extent than the UNO game you're talking about, where I thought the Tigers were held mostly to the periphery and didn't really create too many grade A looks - I remember the Garbowsky line creating one midway through the 3rd, but other than that it was all stuff I expected a goalie the caliber of Massa to stop). They won 92 conference games in 5 years, and their winning percentage over that period was .719.
I don't have a problem calling them dominant over that span (especially when also including Air Force as dominant) with that record, even if stuff did tend to happen to them in the single elimination playoffs.

Notice I underlined the word dominated for a reason. Winning does not equate to dominating. Yes, they finished in at least a share of first that many times, but only in 2010, and arguably 2011, did they dominate the conference, or in other words, run away with it.
I would agree that over a long time frame, both AFA and RIT were the premier programs in this conference, but aside from 2010, neither ran away with any given season race.

 

[TigerFan86-87]

Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<

I guess you blocked out those last couple years of DIII where the team was a bit below standards where they didn't win anything.

Please re-read the entire post instead of taking out of it what you wish. I'm not an idiot. I know full well they didn't win every year. But there was always a chance that if they played well, they would be in the running for a tournament bid and possibly a national title, something the D-I Tigers have virtually no shot at (miraculous FF run in 2010 notwithstanding) in the foreseeable future. That's all I was saying.

 

[jflory81]

Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<

Notice I underlined the word dominated for a reason. Winning does not equate to dominating. Yes, they finished in at least a share of first that many times, but only in 2010, and arguably 2011, did they dominate the conference, or in other words, run away with it.
I would agree that over a long time frame, both AFA and RIT were the premier programs in this conference, but aside from 2010, neither ran away with any given season race.

Sorry, a .719 winning percentage over 5 years (and a home conference unbeaten streak of however long it ended up being before Niagara came into the conference and broke it) is pretty dominant. It's far and away the best 5 season stretch that any team has put together since RIT has joined the league (inculding Air Force). There's a difference between the standard of a dominant program over a span of time (in this case 5 years) and single season dominance. RIT's record over their first 5 years in the conference absolutely qualifies, IMO.

Also, they were arguably better in 2007 than they were in 2011 (same point differential from 2nd, better conference record, better goal differential), and in 2009 (the year they split) they and Air Force were 5 points clear of the next closest team (and again, remember that Air Force was also acknowledged as being "dominant", although in their case it's almost entirely built upon playoff success).

 

[Scott Biggar]

Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<

But there was always a chance that if they played well, they would be in the running for a tournament bid and possibly a national title, something the D-I Tigers have virtually no shot at (miraculous FF run in 2010 notwithstanding) in the foreseeable future. That's all I was saying.

In the timespan being discussed (ie. RIT DI era), something around half of the DI teams have never played in a single NCAA tournament game. RIT has earned bids to three NCAA tournaments and have even won a few games, something achieved by even fewer teams.

So I would count that as evidence "..that there [is] always a chance that if they play[ed] well, they would be in the running for a tournament.."

The fact is that most of the rest of Atlantic Hockey has caught up to Air Force and RIT, since the good old days of a few years ago, which has increased the chance of another team "stealing" the AHA tournament bid from the formerly dominant teams. [tongue in cheek]

I think this new-found parity is occurring across most other leagues as well, as evidenced by their regular season standings and the volatility in league champions the last few seasons.

The days of "dominant" teams and only "the usual suspects" having a reasonable chance at a title have come to an end.

Realistically, I think the chances of RIT gaining a national title is very small, but to me at least, that doesn't diminish what the program continues to achieve at the DI level nor the annual journey.

 

[TigerFan86-87]

Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<

In the timespan being discussed (ie. RIT DI era), something around half of the DI teams have never played in a single NCAA tournament game. RIT has earned bids to three NCAA tournaments and have even won a few games, something achieved by even fewer teams.

So I would count that as evidence "..that there [is] always a chance that if they play[ed] well, they would be in the running for a tournament.."

Agreed, however I would qualify that by saying the D-III teams earned tournament bids by being one of the 2 or 3 best at-large teams (at least according to the guys in the smoke-filled-room), but definitely not by auto-bid. The D-I Tigers have never earned an at-large bid to the tournament, nor had a realistic shot at winning the championship. While possible, not many of us go into their tournament entries thinking it could happen like we did back in the D-III days.

Realistically, I think the chances of RIT gaining a national title is very small, but to me at least, that doesn't diminish what the program continues to achieve at the DI level nor the annual journey.

No, it certainly doesn't.
Don't get me wrong. I don't mean to poo-poo the program for going to D-I. It is cool and exciting getting to see a higher level of hockey, compete against some huge programs, even beat big programs sometimes and all that stuff. I was just noting that I'll probably always have that nostalgic feeling for the "old days" when our team's ceiling was being a legitimate title contender (despite going 20 years without one), not just earning an auto-bid and maybe stealing a win here and there in the tournament.
RIT can compete with the best in D-I on any given night (which is super cool) but we all know they aren't one of the best, nationally.

 

[TigerFan86-87]

Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<

Sorry, a .719 winning percentage over 5 years...

And ONE conference championship to show for it. To me dominance means no one is close to you. AFA was always close to (and usually better than) RIT at the end of the day. You keep throwing in phrases like "including Air Force" . If you need to qualify the claim of dominance by including another team, that alone is evidence enough that the term is not applicable.
They had an impressive regular season record over those 5 years undoubtedly, but I would just not call it dominant, most especially because at the end of the day they did not win the most important games of the season 4 out of those 5 years.

 

[RIT Winters]

Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<

And ONE conference championship to show for it. To me dominance means no one is close to you. AFA was always close to (and usually better than) RIT at the end of the day. You keep throwing in phrases like "including Air Force" . If you need to qualify the claim of dominance by including another team, that alone is evidence enough that the term is not applicable.
They had an impressive regular season record over those 5 years undoubtedly, but I would just not call it dominant, most especially because at the end of the day they did not win the most important games of the season 4 out of those 5 years.

To be fair, the meaningful rounds of the AHA playoffs are stupid single game playoffs. We all know anything can happen in that scenario, and even a team winning 72% of its games still has a 1 in 4 chance to lose a single game playoff. It's not really the most accurate portrayal of "best" team in the Conference. A .719 over the course of 5 years does point to consistent, sustained results well above average. I don't think a 1-0 loss in the Championship really negates the overall dominance of the season.

 

[jflory81]

Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<

And ONE conference championship to show for it. To me dominance means no one is close to you. AFA was always close to (and usually better than) RIT at the end of the day. You keep throwing in phrases like "including Air Force" . If you need to qualify the claim of dominance by including another team, that alone is evidence enough that the term is not applicable.
They had an impressive regular season record over those 5 years undoubtedly, but I would just not call it dominant, most especially because at the end of the day they did not win the most important games of the season 4 out of those 5 years.

First of all, the reason I kept including "along with Air Force" is because the original statement I was piggybacking off of was that RIT and Air Force dominated the conference during RIT's early years of the conference. And regular season conference championships are still conference championships, even if college conferences don't award NCAA births based on it and choose to hold playoffs. Also, the idea that you can't have co-dominance is absurd. For example, saying Alabama and Clemson are dominating college football right now is a perfectly valid statement.

Frankly, I have no problem saying RIT was more dominant than Air Force during those 5 seasons. Yes, things happened to them in the playoffs, unfortunately (they weren't even eligible in one of those seasons), but as Winters said, the balance of the season is a much better judge of how good a team is than a single game elimination tournament, and RIT was 26 points better than Air Force over those 139 games. A .719 winning percentage vs .625.

 

[Ed Trefzger]

Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<

I think this new-found parity is occurring across most other leagues as well, as evidenced by their regular season standings and the volatility in league champions the last few seasons.

The days of "dominant" teams and only "the usual suspects" having a reasonable chance at a title have come to an end.

To Scott’s point, this quote from the show notes of the College Hockey Today podcast:

“Halfway through the 2018-19 season, many of college hockey's traditional powers aren't where they - or their fans - thought they would be. Of the 12 schools that made the 2000 NCAA Tournament, only one - No. 1 St. Cloud State - is above .500.”


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[komey1]

Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<

Another point is that in conferences that are typically one bid leagues, lower teams get hot at the right time. This happens all the time in college hoops. Holy Cross won the Patriot League title a couple years ago by winning 4 road games - which is more road games than they won the entire season. Teams like Middle Tennessee State or
Old Dominion can win 24 or 25 games, but lose in their conference tournament and they don't go to the big dance in spite of league dominance. It's tough for conference regular season champions, but that's how the leagues give out their bids. In the days when the NCAA gave out bids to both, RIT would have been in more tournaments.

To Scott and Ed's point, there are a LOT of teams and fanbases that would be thrilled to have the success that RIT has had at the DI level. To that end, who knows what will happen given time to whether RIT can grow to be more of a player. It's harder to do when you aren't a major name like Penn State or Arizona State where there is big football money to help, but there can be incremental growth.

 

[jflory81]

Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<

I want to be clear here: I'm fine with RIT no longer dominating the league (or dominating the regular season, if you prefer) as the so called bottom feeders get better and start stealing more points. I don't expect a >.700 winning percentage over spans of 5 years. I expect there to be years here and there where they may struggle to hit .500 when they have one of those years where everything that could go wrong does. But I do expect to stay around the same footing/prestige as the Mercyhursts and Robert Morris's of the world. I'm even ok with another couple of teams joining us in that tier (Canisius already has, although they will have to sustain with their new head coach).

But the reality is - mostly due to hemorrhaging many more points to the lower teams in the conference than the rest of the upper tier - we are in grave danger of falling below the standard of that tier, if we haven't already. I don't think it's an unreasonable expectation to expect to play well enough in the regular season to host a 2nd round series about half the time. I don't think it's an unreasonable expectation to expect to generally play above .500 hockey at home inside the conference. The unfortunate reality is this senior class has played like an average Atlantic Hockey team (they are 7th in cumulative winning percentage, behind Holy Cross and Army, though slightly above .500 counting playoffs). The reality is that the current junior class has played like a below average Atlantic Hockey team (still 7th, though any series loss to AIC this weekend and AIC will pass them, and they are below .500).

Obviously I hope they turn it around and we can laugh about this come March. But the trajectory has not been good for a couple of years now, and with another playoff disaster (ie 1st round exit, which obviously would require them to finish 6th or worse again), there will be a much stronger argument for RIT being one of the bottom feeders than one of the elite. You can only ride on the coattails of the past for so long, especially when all the players from your last successful team are gone (again - speaking of the end of the year here, when this year's juniors become the senior class).

 

[Hockeyplayer82]

Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<

I want to be clear here: I'm fine with RIT no longer dominating the league (or dominating the regular season, if you prefer) as the so called bottom feeders get better and start stealing more points. I don't expect a >.700 winning percentage over spans of 5 years. I expect there to be years here and there where they may struggle to hit .500 when they have one of those years where everything that could go wrong does. But I do expect to stay around the same footing/prestige as the Mercyhursts and Robert Morris's of the world. I'm even ok with another couple of teams joining us in that tier (Canisius already has, although they will have to sustain with their new head coach).

But the reality is - mostly due to hemorrhaging many more points to the lower teams in the conference than the rest of the upper tier - we are in grave danger of falling below the standard of that tier, if we haven't already. I don't think it's an unreasonable expectation to expect to play well enough in the regular season to host a 2nd round series about half the time. I don't think it's an unreasonable expectation to expect to generally play above .500 hockey at home inside the conference. The unfortunate reality is this senior class has played like an average Atlantic Hockey team (they are 7th in cumulative winning percentage, behind Holy Cross and Army, though slightly above .500 counting playoffs). The reality is that the current junior class has played like a below average Atlantic Hockey team (still 7th, though any series loss to AIC this weekend and AIC will pass them, and they are below .500).

Obviously I hope they turn it around and we can laugh about this come March. But the trajectory has not been good for a couple of years now, and with another playoff disaster (ie 1st round exit, which obviously would require them to finish 6th or worse again), there will be a much stronger argument for RIT being one of the bottom feeders than one of the elite. You can only ride on the coattails of the past for so long, especially when all the players from your last successful team are gone (again - speaking of the end of the year here, when this year's juniors become the senior class).

Air Force and RIT have had success in AHC. Is Robert Morris in the conversation as well? I just looked at their records since joning the league in 2010, nothing below 17 wins. They had a run with a recruiting class, I am not sure which years they were. Pretty consistent.

 

[jflory81]

Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<

Air Force and RIT have had success in AHC. Is Robert Morris in the conversation as well? I just looked at their records since joning the league in 2010, nothing below 17 wins. They had a run with a recruiting class, I am not sure which years they were. Pretty consistent.

Robert Morris is probably the best of the rest, but Air Force is the clear top dog in the conference in recent years.

I keep a spreadsheet with the current senior and junior cumulative records, so here's the current senior class (does not include playoffs)

SENIORS W L T P %
Air Force 57 29 12 126 0.643 - 2 playoff championships, 2 NCAA tournament wins, average league position (ALP): 2.8
Robert Morris 52 35 11 115 0.587 - 1 regular season championship, ALP: 3.7
Canisius 50 35 12 112 0.577 - 1 regular season championship, ALP: 3.2
Mercyhurst 49 36 13 111 0.566 - 1 regular season championship, ALP: 4
Holy Cross 42 35 19 103 0.536 - ALP: 3.8
Army 42 37 19 103 0.526 - ALP: 4.7
RIT 46 44 8 100 0.510 - 1 Playoff Championship, ALP: 6.2
Bentley 32 46 18 82 0.427 - ALP: 8.2
AIC 33 51 15 81 0.409 - ALP: 9.5
Sacred Heart 34 52 11 79 0.407 - ALP: 9.7
Niagara 25 62 12 62 0.313 - ALP: 10.3

(League position does not use tiebreakers. Tied teams average the positions that the tied teams take up. So two teams that tied for 5th would have a league position of 5.5 for that season).

EDIT: Apologies that the format did not carry over. It looked nice in my posting window. =(

 

[Hockeyplayer82]

Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<

Robert Morris is probably the best of the rest, but Air Force is the clear top dog in the conference in recent years.

I keep a spreadsheet with the current senior and junior cumulative records, so here's the current senior class (does not include playoffs)

SENIORS W L T P %
Air Force 57 29 12 126 0.643 - 2 playoff championships, 2 NCAA tournament wins, average league position (ALP): 2.8
Robert Morris 52 35 11 115 0.587 - 1 regular season championship, ALP: 3.7
Canisius 50 35 12 112 0.577 - 1 regular season championship, ALP: 3.2
Mercyhurst 49 36 13 111 0.566 - 1 regular season championship, ALP: 4
Holy Cross 42 35 19 103 0.536 - ALP: 3.8
Army 42 37 19 103 0.526 - ALP: 4.7
RIT 46 44 8 100 0.510 - 1 Playoff Championship, ALP: 6.2
Bentley 32 46 18 82 0.427 - ALP: 8.2
AIC 33 51 15 81 0.409 - ALP: 9.5
Sacred Heart 34 52 11 79 0.407 - ALP: 9.7
Niagara 25 62 12 62 0.313 - ALP: 10.3

(League position does not use tiebreakers. Tied teams average the positions that the tied teams take up. So two teams that tied for 5th would have a league position of 5.5 for that season).

EDIT: Apologies that the format did not carry over. It looked nice in my posting window. =(

Great numbers! Do you have 2015-2016 senior class numbers?

 

[jflory81]

Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<

Great numbers! Do you have 2015-2016 senior class numbers?

Average league position isn't really valid when a different number of teams are in the league over the 4 seasons (UConn left inside of this span). You're right, Robert Morris had a really nice run. Not quite the 4 in 5 that RIT did in the regular season, but they followed up a playoff championship with back to back regular season championships, but RIT played spoiler both times they won the regular season championship. Air Force had the 2nd best cumulative record still, but were actually shut out in championships of any kind. RIT was also 7th during this span (although out of 12 instead of 11), but two playoff championships helped take the sting out of it.


TEAM W L T PTS %
Robert Morris 63 31 16 142 0.645 - 2 regular season championships, 1 playoff championship.
Air Force 59 35 16 134 0.609
Mercyhurst 58 35 17 133 0.605 - 1 regular season championship
UConn 29 19 6 64 0.593
Holy Cross 54 40 16 124 0.564
Bentley 49 43 18 116 0.527
RIT 49 44 17 115 0.523 - 2 playoff championships, 1 NCAA Tourney win
Canisius 48 46 16 112 0.509 - 1 playoff championship
Niagara 41 53 16 98 0.445 - 1 regular season championship, 1 at-large tournament appearance
Sacred Heart 33 64 13 79 0.359
Army 28 64 18 74 0.336
AIC 28 65 17 73 0.332

 

[Hockeyplayer82]

Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<

Average league position isn't really valid when a different number of teams are in the league over the 4 seasons (UConn left inside of this span). You're right, Robert Morris had a really nice run. Not quite the 4 in 5 that RIT did in the regular season, but they followed up a playoff championship with back to back regular season championships, but RIT played spoiler both times they won the regular season championship. Air Force had the 2nd best cumulative record still, but were actually shut out in championships of any kind. RIT was also 7th during this span (although out of 12 instead of 11), but two playoff championships helped take the sting out of it.


TEAM W L T PTS %
Robert Morris 63 31 16 142 0.645 - 2 regular season championships, 1 playoff championship.
Air Force 59 35 16 134 0.609
Mercyhurst 58 35 17 133 0.605 - 1 regular season championship
UConn 29 19 6 64 0.593
Holy Cross 54 40 16 124 0.564
Bentley 49 43 18 116 0.527
RIT 49 44 17 115 0.523 - 2 playoff championships, 1 NCAA Tourney win
Canisius 48 46 16 112 0.509 - 1 playoff championship
Niagara 41 53 16 98 0.445 - 1 regular season championship, 1 at-large tournament appearance
Sacred Heart 33 64 13 79 0.359
Army 28 64 18 74 0.336
AIC 28 65 17 73 0.332

Those are great numbers, thank you for sharing. Numbers are telling. We may have to revisit these numbers after this year is over. Curious to see where teams moved in 4 years. Thanks again.

 

[jflory81]

Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<

That would actually only be three years removed from that class (2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19). The 2015-16 season is reflected in both sets of data. I think it's more interesting to see what happens when this year's juniors lose the benefit of the championship and good season the current seniors won as freshmen. They're going to have to do some work to stay above .500, much less keep a championship of some kind inside of the rolling 4 year span.

 

[komey1]

Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<

Interesting numbers to be sure. Here are some other numbers - more for this year, though. RIT has only played 3 league games against teams that are below them in the standings. They have the win against Canisius and the 2 Sacred Heart losses. There are 7 more games against the current bottom 4 teams left - plenty of room to make a move. It seems weird to say, but if they can get at least a split against first place AIC this weekend, the Tigers will be set up to really make a run.

 

[Tom Naeger]

Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<

You know here is the thing. If RIT can repeat it's sweep of current league point leader AIC (which is a tall order as they are red hot) they would be only one point behind AIC with a game in hand. Assuming Air Force splits with Army, RIT would only be 2 points out of 1st with teams even on games. That is the razor thin margin of error in the AHA this season. 7 teams can actually win the Regular Season title with a good second half, and perhaps 9 if Canisius and Sacred Heart catch fire. Only Bentley and Holy Cross seem to be dwindling this season. Good news for the tigers is they have yet to face both of those teams.

Yes it was a major disappointment and the Tigers are going to want to those two weekends against Air Force and Sacred Heart back all the season. However if you put everything in perspective you find a Tigers team that is far from down and out. It amazes me how two bad weekends has just cast a cloud of doom on some people. RIT is 4-0-1 against the teams currently sitting in 1st and 3rd in the league. If this team splits all of their weekend series they got a chance of finishing for a first round bye. If they can feast on Holy Cross and Bentley they have a better than average chance and be in the running for 1st overall seed.

The Tigers showed they are alive by taking 5 of 6 points against Niagara. This weekend is going to show us something. I thought AIC was getting too much fanfare for some nice international pickups the last two years, but they are playing like they are a team with a serious chance to do damage. I still want to see their second half, as Niagara showed last year a hot first half can dissolve into a horrible second, but even if that happens AIC has done some damage already so it be great to have 3 of 4, if not more wins on them.

I still think many on here just won't accept how thin the margin of error has become in the AHA. Seems that the coaches are an easy target especially when some may be out to grind an axe. You know the radio guy and other fans like myself have been critical of the team when called for. However, and this is not to stroke my own ego, but you know I have publicly disagreed with Wayne on some calls. I've commented on some players struggling while keep in mind they are not professional athletes, but still saying where they need to improve. I am still of the opinion that the RIT administration has given good support to the program, but in my opinion can and should do more. Even though I don't see eye to eye with every decision made, I am still always invited in and again not trying to brag even given some special perks that I am very thankful the program has given me. My point is there are ways to express opinions and still be liked. And a couple of people are going overboard and if they are truly not happy then they might want to find another team or sport to follow...