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Rep Retirement Lodge 197: Hot! Hot! Hot!

Rep Retirement Lodge 197: Hot! Hot! Hot!


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Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 197: Hot! Hot! Hot!

Ag is in trouble, so lowball. Oh, because of lack of Ag, you're in debt. Here's 75% of actual value. Wanna try and recover some of that?

Your logic is backwards. Go back to basic supply and demand. In this hypothetical situation, supply is high, demand is low, causing low prices. 1) Land that developers are interested automatically has a lower supply, because only land that is in city limits, or adjacent to existing developments would be in demand, causing a reduction in supply. 2) Adding developers into the mix increases the demand side of the equation, because that means that more parties are in the market for the purchasing that land, likely several developers. All in all, this situation that you are describing would only increase land values, and prices for the owners of that land. It all goes back to basic economics.
 
Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 197: Hot! Hot! Hot!

So, as if I'm not stressed enough this week trying to get everything in place for the launch of our company's biggest employee-wide annual campaign that launches while I'm in LA for the Emmy Awards, my bathroom shower drain decides to back up. I literally have no time for this. I called a plumber at 7:30. Got the service. She said if it was an emergency, she would page someone. I said have the office call me when it opens at 8:30. If I had my laptop with me I would've done that. So, I decide to forego breakfast and head to work as I'm usually on the T at 8:30. I get on a train and see I have a message at 7:50. They called me. I get off the train to call. I settle on a visit 5-6pm and will have to pay OT for it. Whatever. I have no choice. I have one meeting I physically need to be here for today and tomorrow I'm totally booked. I leave for the airport from the office on Thursday. I may snap, soon.
 
Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 197: Hot! Hot! Hot!

Another auction tonight. Way too high of prices, I was in for a while, but bowed out at just under $600k. With prices as low as they are, guys will be going broke soon, will be more land out there to buy. Prevailing thought is that the market will be flooded in the next year, so I'll have more chances, at likely a much better price. Also helps that I have the chunk I bought in July to fall back on, better land, for a lower price than we saw today.

Commodity prices aren't likely to really climb back into a good range until we see the tariffs on them lift in foreign lands, which will require some effort on our gov't's side, too. Those guys bidding up the prices must be expecting some of that bailout cash announced last month.
 
Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 197: Hot! Hot! Hot!

Commodity prices aren't likely to really climb back into a good range until we see the tariffs on them lift in foreign lands, which will require some effort on our gov't's side, too. Those guys bidding up the prices must be expecting some of that bailout cash announced last month.

No, they just have cash on hand and are speculating for the long term. They'll lose their shorts in the first few years, but as long as they have enough cash available, that won't matter. When the next upswing comes, they'll make money. The bailout cash for tariff relief isn't hardly worth applying for, the amount is so minuscule, like 0.5 cents per bushel, it won't have even a slight impact.

I think some people are speculating that Trump with get **** worked out with China, like he recently has with Mexico. Many are also very skeptical about that. Its not like he's done much to inspire confidence in anyone to this point, though, other financial markets seem to be doing not terrible. We'll just have to wait and see. We have always positioned ourselves well in down times, and come out bigger and stronger than before, so hoping to do that again.
 
Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 197: Hot! Hot! Hot!

Who could it be? ;)
Hmmmm

Considering how much flooding we are getting from the rains over the weekend, whatever we get from Florence is going to be a mess.
Hmmmm again

No, they just have cash on hand and are speculating for the long term. They'll lose their shorts in the first few years, but as long as they have enough cash available, that won't matter. When the next upswing comes, they'll make money. The bailout cash for tariff relief isn't hardly worth applying for, the amount is so minuscule, like 0.5 cents per bushel, it won't have even a slight impact.

I think some people are speculating that Trump with get **** worked out with China, like he recently has with Mexico. Many are also very skeptical about that. Its not like he's done much to inspire confidence in anyone to this point, though, other financial markets seem to be doing not terrible. We'll just have to wait and see. We have always positioned ourselves well in down times, and come out bigger and stronger than before, so hoping to do that again.
This is so like what happened when Reagan did the shell game with $$ when I was a kid. It supports things for only so long then down it goes. We shifted to more conservative investments. Might not make a bundle now but the hit when the crash comes will be a lot less painful adn rebound faster
 
Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 197: Hot! Hot! Hot!

Checking in lodge, because I have apologies to share.

I want to apologize for my website not being available today to share the 9/11 thread. I don't have the site set to auto-renew the domain, and I was so busy this past week with other things I completely forgot to renew.

Good news, the files are all still at GoDaddy so we didn't lose our slice of history, and the domain was parked for me to still be able to renew. Bad news is that it's a blank page until the DNS servers refresh.
 
Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 197: Hot! Hot! Hot!

Hmmmm

Hmmmm again

This is so like what happened when Reagan did the shell game with $$ when I was a kid. It supports things for only so long then down it goes. We shifted to more conservative investments. Might not make a bundle now but the hit when the crash comes will be a lot less painful adn rebound faster

Can't exactly "shift to more conservative investments" when the investment is growing in the field.
 
Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 197: Hot! Hot! Hot!

Plumber showed up 10 minutes early! Cleaned out the drain. Had to pay OT charges. Blergh. But it's done. Finished packing, though not 100% because I will be packing my sneakers and I need to wear them tomorrow. I cancelled my PT appointment tomorrow night so I may drive my suitcase in tomorrow night instead of taking a Lyft into to the office Thursday morning. Cross your fingers I get through tomorrow and Thursday morning without feeling I need to bring my work laptop with me.
 
Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 197: Hot! Hot! Hot!

Your logic is backwards. Go back to basic supply and demand. In this hypothetical situation, supply is high, demand is low, causing low prices. 1) Land that developers are interested automatically has a lower supply, because only land that is in city limits, or adjacent to existing developments would be in demand, causing a reduction in supply. 2) Adding developers into the mix increases the demand side of the equation, because that means that more parties are in the market for the purchasing that land, likely several developers. All in all, this situation that you are describing would only increase land values, and prices for the owners of that land. It all goes back to basic economics.

Some farmers are losing money, though, correct? So to stop the bleeding, they might be more willing to sell at lower prices. Otherwise, you are correct, and the price goes up for the land.
 
Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 197: Hot! Hot! Hot!

Some farmers are losing money, though, correct? So to stop the bleeding, they might be more willing to sell at lower prices. Otherwise, you are correct, and the price goes up for the land.

All farmers are losing money. But, selling the land is a last resort. You sell the land, and you're done. But, in a situation where someone is forced to sell by a lender demanding loan repayment, their willingness to sell at a lower price does not come into play when you're talking about supply and demand. And in the situation I described, where developers are looking to buy land, the balance between supply and demand is actually more in favor of the seller than in a normal situation where developers are not interested. So, even if they are willing to sell at a lower price, they likely will not have to. Think of it this way, if you own a 1969 Corvette, but really need some money to pay off some debt, and are forced to sell, it doesn't matter that you only need $8000 to pay off your debt, if there are 2 guys that want that car, and are both willing to pay $15000, you are going to get north of $15000 for that car, regardless of how much you'd be willing to sell it for.
 
Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 197: Hot! Hot! Hot!

Good Afternoon Lodge!

Hurricane info is scary. Know a few people who probably will lose their homes :(
 
Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 197: Hot! Hot! Hot!

Evening, Lodge. Work is still crappy. Co-worker off today and tomorrow. No help from main building, but thankfully, things fell into place today to make a best case scenario on my end. Have about a dozen days off (all M or F) for the rest of the year to get under my carryover limit. That will help.
 
Good Afternoon Lodge!

Hurricane info is scary. Know a few people who probably will lose their homes :(

Lucky for us, we live far enough north and west we should be safe from most problems.

There will be localized flooding im sure (up to 10" could fall), and some wind damage is possible (50 mph max around here i think).

But i have a crawl space and dont live in a low lying area. So my only concern really is power outages.
 
Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 197: Hot! Hot! Hot!

Lucky for us, we live far enough north and west we should be safe from most problems.

There will be localized flooding im sure (up to 10" could fall), and some wind damage is possible (50 mph max around here i think).

But i have a crawl space and dont live in a low lying area. So my only concern really is power outages.

Be safe!! Regardless of your location, I agree that power could be your biggest worry. Make sure you have flashlights! And stock up on water!!
 
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