Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

[The Rube]

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

You're smoking crack.

Current forecast for the twin cities is a slight (20%) chance of storms toward daybreak. Nothing is likely to happen until tomorrow afternoon which is when the **** may hit the fan.

Way to live up to your name ... as usual.

Brent - as I said before - storms are hit / miss whether or not you live in or near an urban heat island. The only time they aren't is if you have a massive line form or an MCS (big cluster that holds together for 12+ hours and does widespread damage).

I read the same reports as MNS. Possible storms, mayyyyyybe somewhat severe in early AM. Then the real sh* is gonna come around in the afternoon.

Uh, yeah, hit or miss....isn't that what I've been saying? It's either hit or miss. And the heat island is a factor, given past results.

 

[The Rube]

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Is there anything more typical that a bunch of Minnesotans arguing over the weather? Holy *ing Christ.

No. Next?

 

[Bakunin]

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

I read the same reports as MNS. Possible storms, mayyyyyybe somewhat severe in early AM. Then the real sh* is gonna come around in the afternoon.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=mpx&zmx=1&zmy=1&map.x=194&map.y=144
A 20% chance is not "rain will start at 5 a.m., storms at 7 a.m.".

Uh, yeah, hit or miss....isn't that what I've been saying? It's either hit or miss. And the heat island is a factor, given past results.

They'd be hit or miss whether or not we lived in the twin cities metro area. In any case, I'm not going to do the time-consuming research here - the onus is on you to prove that the heat island is creating non-random storm outcomes.

 

[The Rube]

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=mpx&zmx=1&zmy=1&map.x=194&map.y=144
A 20% chance is not "rain will start at 5 a.m., storms at 7 a.m.".

They'd be hit or miss whether or not we lived in the twin cities metro area. In any case, I'm not going to do the time-consuming research here - the onus is on you to prove that the heat island is creating non-random storm outcomes.

Well, I've already said that, using past observations and conversations. Most of the time, I'll get stuff you don't get (more than a marginal difference) and vice versa, which (given our minimal N-S separation) is significant. You use exact to the point-whatever degree analytical observation. I use general area/neighborhood observations, both relative to the area we are observing (within a couple suburbs, not a whole metro region).

And you used one site (the almight gov site) while I used KSTP, which I found to be reliable. Now, I haven't checked the forecast since about 9-10 pm, and it could have changed, but I cannot comment on that, due to my not checking.

 

[MinnesotaNorthStar]

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

You're smoking crack.

Current forecast for the twin cities is a slight (20%) chance of storms toward daybreak. Nothing is likely to happen until tomorrow afternoon which is when the **** may hit the fan.

Way to live up to your name ... as usual..

Not me. NOAA. Forecast says light thunderstorms in the vicinity of MSP (20-30% chance). Forecast also says TStorms around 2.

EDIT: No, Brent you did not read the same forecast I did. You couldn't read the same forecast I did.

 

[Bakunin]

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

I provided a direct link to the Minneapolis forecast. It does not say what you just said. You fail. As usual.

Brent: nothing you're saying has established any cause-effect relationship between the urban heat island and storm patterns. Simply saying a storm hit point A but not point B lends no credibility to the claim, either. I could make the exact same observation about two points relatively close together in other parts of the state or country that don't have a major metro area anywhere near them. It doesn't prove anything other than the random nature of weather.

 

[The Rube]

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Not me. NOAA. Forecast says light thunderstorms in the vicinity of MSP (20-30% chance). Forecast also says TStorms around 2.

EDIT: No, Brent you did not read the same forecast I did. You couldn't read the same forecast I did.

Did I not say I read KSTP, which had the same forecast as you read? Stop MNSing.

I provided a direct link to the Minneapolis forecast. It does not say what you just said. You fail. As usual.

Brent: nothing you're saying has established any cause-effect relationship between the urban heat island and storm patterns. Simply saying a storm hit point A but not point B lends no credibility to the claim, either. I could make the exact same observation about two points relatively close together in other parts of the state or country that don't have a major metro area anywhere near them. It doesn't prove anything other than the random nature of weather.

Yes, I have, but you are too science-based to allow for any sort of non-science based observations. From what I've observed, in my ohhhhh, lifetime, the heat island has been a factor in deciding where the storm will hit or will most heavily hit. However, you rely on 1/3 of Twain's quote (there's lies, dam lies, and statistics), so poop on you.

 

[MinnesotaNorthStar]

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

I provided a direct link to the Minneapolis forecast. It does not say what you just said. You fail. As usual.

Brent: nothing you're saying has established any cause-effect relationship between the urban heat island and storm patterns. Simply saying a storm hit point A but not point B lends no credibility to the claim, either. I could make the exact same observation about two points relatively close together in other parts of the state or country that don't have a major metro area anywhere near them. It doesn't prove anything other than the random nature of weather.

Did I not say I read KSTP, which had the same forecast as you read? Stop MNSing.



Yes, I have, but you are too science-based to allow for any sort of non-science based observations. From what I've observed, in my ohhhhh, lifetime, the heat island has been a factor in deciding where the storm will hit or will most heavily hit. However, you rely on 1/3 of Twain's quote (there's lies, dam lies, and statistics), so poop on you.

Here's the forecast I read. Both of you fail.


KMSP 140248Z 1403/1506 15010KT P6SM SCT050 BKN150
FM141000 15011G16KT P6SM VCSH BKN035CB BKN080
FM141200 16014G21KT P6SM VCTS BKN035CB
PROB30 1413/1415 4SM -TSRA
FM141500 18015G23KT P6SM -SHRA VCTS OVC040CB
PROB30 1415/1418 3SM -TSRA OVC025CB
FM141900 21014G21KT P6SM VCTS BKN040CB
FM142200 25014G21KT P6SM VCSH BKN045CB
FM150100 27012KT P6SM SCT050

EDIT: Straight from NOAA.

 

[Bakunin]

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Yes, I have, but you are too science-based to allow for any sort of non-science based observations.

You've mentioned a handful of observations which is insufficient to prove your point. It's statistically invalid; it'd be like if I said a roulette wheel landed on red 20 times in a row and is thus "rigged" to land on red an inordinate number of times.

From what I've observed, in my ohhhhh, lifetime, the heat island has been a factor in deciding where the storm will hit or will most heavily hit. However, you rely on 1/3 of Twain's quote (there's lies, dam lies, and statistics), so poop on you.

...except you aren't establishing the link between where a storm hits or does the most damage with the heat island. You're simply claiming it without any evidence establishing the linkage between the two things. Merely saying Minnetonka gets hit with a storm while the SE metro doesn't or vice versa says nothing of the heat island or its influence on storms; it is simply stating a storm hit one spot and missed another. Which is the same *'ing thing anyone could say about any storm anywhere.

Why don't you have patman do some research for you and show whether or not the storm impact in this area over the past 20 years or so has been influenced in any significant way by the heat island. He doesn't have anything better to do.

 

[The Rube]

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Here's the forecast I read. Both of you fail.


KMSP 140248Z 1403/1506 15010KT P6SM SCT050 BKN150
FM141000 15011G16KT P6SM VCSH BKN035CB BKN080
FM141200 16014G21KT P6SM VCTS BKN035CB
PROB30 1413/1415 4SM -TSRA
FM141500 18015G23KT P6SM -SHRA VCTS OVC040CB
PROB30 1415/1418 3SM -TSRA OVC025CB
FM141900 21014G21KT P6SM VCTS BKN040CB
FM142200 25014G21KT P6SM VCSH BKN045CB
FM150100 27012KT P6SM SCT050

If I failed, then you failed, since your forecast was the same as I read.

Think this through.

 

[The Rube]

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

You've mentioned a handful of observations which is insufficient to prove your point. It's statistically invalid; it'd be like if I said a roulette wheel landed on red 20 times in a row and is thus "rigged" to land on red an inordinate number of times.

...except you aren't establishing the link between where a storm hits or does the most damage with the heat island. You're simply claiming it without any evidence establishing the linkage between the two things. Merely saying Minnetonka gets hit with a storm while the SE metro doesn't or vice versa says nothing of the heat island or its influence on storms; it is simply stating a storm hit one spot and missed another. Which is the same *'ing thing anyone could say about any storm anywhere.

Why don't you have patman do some research for you and show whether or not the storm impact in this area over the past 20 years or so has been influenced in any significant way by the heat island. He doesn't have anything better to do.

Stats versus real life observation. You stand corrected. Thank you, good night.

The island affects where the storm will go. I don't know which way it will veer. You don't know, either. But where it has landed in the past was directed by the island. It's not that difficult to understand.

 

[Bakunin]

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

If I failed, then you failed, since your forecast was the same as I read.

Think this through.

His forecast looks like one issued to pilots/traffic controllers - which is not the same as what people read for specific cities. The forecast he's citing isn't for Minneapolis specifically; it is for the area around it that would have an impact on incoming/outgoing flights (which is why there is a mention of cloud coverage / altitude, etc).

In any case, a 20% chance of something happening after 4 a.m. is a long ways from saying "rain will start at ___ a.m. and thunderstorms will start at ___ a.m.". It's a very low probability and will depend completely on whether or not the storm complex currently forming in western ND holds together and builds southward a couple hundred miles. I think it will hold together and push through the northern half of the state, but I don't think it'll build southward enough to have any impact on the TC metro.

 

[MinnesotaNorthStar]

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

If I failed, then you failed, since your forecast was the same as I read.

Think this through.

You got it from KSTP. I did not.

 

[The Rube]

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

You got it from KSTP. I did not.

Yet it was the same (general) forecast. BOX.

And we should rename the Commie "Data" as he has no allowance for non-statistical variances whatsoever, in your face Milwaukee.

 

[Bakunin]

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Stats versus real life observation. You stand corrected. Thank you, good night.

No, I don't. Statistics = accumulated observations. Ever wonder why there's a 20% chance of storms one day and a 70% chance the next? It's based on computer modeling, which is based on ... statistics. Oh, the horror.

The island affects where the storm will go. I don't know which way it will veer. You don't know, either. But where it has landed in the past was directed by the island. It's not that difficult to understand.

You haven't proven it, and until you do, I am discounting your theory as largely baseless.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0469.html
Things are really starting to crank up in central / western ND now.

 

[CollegeHockeyAddict]

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Add me to the list of the unemployed. I could really b!t(h about how it went down but what's the point?

 

[Twitch Boy]

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

KMSP 140248Z 1403/1506 15010KT P6SM SCT050 BKN150
FM141000 15011G16KT P6SM VCSH BKN035CB BKN080
FM141200 16014G21KT P6SM VCTS BKN035CB
PROB30 1413/1415 4SM -TSRA
FM141500 18015G23KT P6SM -SHRA VCTS OVC040CB
PROB30 1415/1418 3SM -TSRA OVC025CB
FM141900 21014G21KT P6SM VCTS BKN040CB
FM142200 25014G21KT P6SM VCSH BKN045CB
FM150100 27012KT P6SM SCT050

Is that a weather report or the codes to bomb the Russkies?

 

[The Rube]

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Add me to the list of the unemployed. I could really b!t(h about how it went down but what's the point?

* that. Wow. Sucks, bro.

And Bakunin: lies, dam lies, and statstics. Repeat after me.

Out.

 

[Bakunin]

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Add me to the list of the unemployed. I could really b!t(h about how it went down but what's the point?

That sucks.

Brent: cliches do not an argument make.

 

[MinnesotaNorthStar]

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

His forecast looks like one issued to pilots/traffic controllers - which is not the same as what people read for specific cities. The forecast he's citing isn't for Minneapolis specifically; it is for the area around it that would have an impact on incoming/outgoing flights (which is why there is a mention of cloud coverage / altitude, etc).

In any case, a 20% chance of something happening after 4 a.m. is a long ways from saying "rain will start at ___ a.m. and thunderstorms will start at ___ a.m.". It's a very low probability and will depend completely on whether or not the storm complex currently forming in western ND holds together and builds southward a couple hundred miles. I think it will hold together and push through the northern half of the state, but I don't think it'll build southward enough to have any impact on the TC metro.

Yes, I misstated my original statement.

Forecast is for Minneapolis International, specifically. 5 statute mile radius around the airport.

EDIT: Sorry CHA, that sucks.