Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

[Twitch Boy]

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Is a 'martagita' made with gin?

And served with a side of championchips and tunament.

Caution: may lead to fcuking and SENANICANS.

 

[Beer Pong Horn]

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

And served with a side of championchips and tunament.

Caution: may lead to fcuking and SENANICANS.

More than three may result in pinded monkeys.

 

[bigmrg74]

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Is a 'martagita' made with gin?

maybe

And served with a side of championchips and tunament.

Caution: may lead to fcuking and SENANICANS.

 

[The Rube]

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

If she has hard water, it'll slowly deposit minerals and such. She should be able to spot that elsewhere though - it leaves residue.

Brent: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_1730_any.gif

I'm assuming that the link you provided = a good chance of a *storm?

I coulda told you that with the way the humidity and dewpoint rose today.

I'm actually kinda surprised it hasn't started developing as we speak, given the clouds that suddenly formed over my area. The radar as of about 1/2 hour ago showed zilch.

 

[Bakunin]

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

That's their severe weather probability map for tomorrow.

The reason why nothing is forming now is because there's no upper air support over the area (yet). Warm humid air does not initiate storm formation by itself; it needs a trigger (i.e. colder upper air temperatures, a boundary with colder surface temperatures, a dryline, etc).

 

[The Rube]

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

That's their severe weather probability map for tomorrow.

The reason why nothing is forming now is because there's no upper air support over the area (yet). Warm humid air does not initiate storm formation by itself; it needs a trigger (i.e. colder upper air temperatures, a boundary with colder surface temperatures, a dryline, etc).

Well, duh, but the rise in humidity/dew point is a darn good indicator, especially when it's that (relatively) rapid.

 

[Bakunin]

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Well, duh, but the rise in humidity/dew point is a darn good indicator, especially when it's that (relatively) rapid.

It's not *that* good of an indicator of approaching bad weather. All it means is a storm system is pulling gulf air northward. The cause of it could be well north of us and not spawn anything. If it wasn't for the approaching upperlevel disturbance tomorrow, the atmosphere would be capped and nothing would happen (which is essentially why nothing is happening in eastern SD - despite there being a significant amount of surface-based instability due to the heat and humidity; there's nowhere for that air to go as the mid level of the atmosphere is also warm).

 

[The Rube]

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

It's not *that* good of an indicator of approaching bad weather. All it means is a storm system is pulling gulf air northward. The cause of it could be well north of us and not spawn anything. If it wasn't for the approaching upperlevel disturbance tomorrow, the atmosphere would be capped and nothing would happen (which is essentially why nothing is happening in eastern SD - despite there being a significant amount of surface-based instability due to the heat and humidity; there's nowhere for that air to go as the mid level of the atmosphere is also warm).

Sorry, when it goes from "wow, it's beautiful out" to "holy crap it's muggy" in a couple hours, something's coming.

Whether or not it hits us in particular definitely depends on the "heat island" within the 694/494 loop, as we've seen in the past, but something is gonna hit somewhere near here.

 

[Bakunin]

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Sorry, when it goes from "wow, it's beautiful out" to "holy crap it's muggy" in a couple hours, something's coming.

It's not that simple, and I'd bet against anything hitting tonight.

Whether or not it hits us in particular definitely depends on the "heat island" within the 694/494 loop, as we've seen in the past, but something is gonna hit somewhere near here.

Whether or not something impacts a particular point depends on far more than the heat island effect.

What happens and where depends heavily on timing / placement of the triggers at peak heating.

 

[The Rube]

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

It's not that simple, and I'd bet against anything hitting tonight.

Whether or not something impacts a particular point depends on far more than the heat island effect.

What happens and where depends heavily on timing / placement of the triggers at peak heating.

And I'm saying I was just a little surprised that it hasn't hit.

And yes, those triggers are necessary, but you cannot deny that the island is a major factor, as we've both seen it firsthand. How many times have I been hit (western/northernish) and you've gotten nothing (southeastern)? And vice versa?

 

[Bakunin]

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

And I'm saying I was just a little surprised that it hasn't hit.

And I explained why it hasn't.

A surge in warmth/humidity can precede a front by more than a day, depending on how deep the low pressure system is (and this one is deeper than is typical for this time of year).

And yes, those triggers are necessary, but you cannot deny that the island is a major factor, as we've both seen it firsthand. How many times have I been hit (western/northernish) and you've gotten nothing (southeastern)? And vice versa?

It's a factor but not a major factor. Our respective locales are approximately 25 miles apart - one getting hit and the other not getting hit is simply random chance and not necessarily attributable to the heat island effect. A typical storm is only a few miles across; even a supercell isn't going to hit an entire county.

 

[The Rube]

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

And I explained why it hasn't.

A surge in warmth/humidity can precede a front by more than a day, depending on how deep the low pressure system is (and this one is deeper than is typical for this time of year).


It's a factor but not a major factor. Our respective locales are approximately 25 miles apart - one getting hit and the other not getting hit is simply random chance and not necessarily attributable to the heat island effect. A typical storm is only a few miles across; even a supercell isn't going to hit an entire county.

"typical for this time of year." Hence my surprise.

We're a ways apart west-to-east, but I wonder how much north-south we're apart (given that is the typical path of a storm, and I really don't know as I haven't looked it up)

 

[Bakunin]

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

It's about 10 miles N-S.

Also, the heat island wouldn't cause a storm to dissipate - if anything, it should help intensify it.

 

[The Rube]

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

It's about 10 miles N-S.

Also, the heat island wouldn't cause a storm to dissipate - if anything, it should help intensify it.

I was more of the "it will go north or south" sort of point of view. It diverts the storm to one general direction.

 

[Bakunin]

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

I was more of the "it will go north or south" sort of point of view. It diverts the storm to one general direction.

It doesn't. It simply provides a locally-enhanced fuel for storms - which if anything should aid in their development as they need warm / moist air to grow.

 

[MinnesotaNorthStar]

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

It's not that simple, and I'd bet against anything hitting tonight.

And I'm saying I was just a little surprised that it hasn't hit.

Forecast says it'll start raining about 5 AM and Tstorms will start around 7 AM...

 

[The Rube]

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

It doesn't. It simply provides a locally-enhanced fuel for storms - which if anything should aid in their development as they need warm / moist air to grow.

Take that up with past results, which shouldn't be difficult, given storms as recently as this year.

Brenthoven: we got our butt kicked!
Bakunin: I got nothin'.

And the reverse has been true, too.

 

[Bakunin]

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Forecast says it'll start raining about 5 AM and Tstorms will start around 7 AM...

You're smoking crack.

Current forecast for the twin cities is a slight (20%) chance of storms toward daybreak. Nothing is likely to happen until tomorrow afternoon which is when the **** may hit the fan.

Way to live up to your name ... as usual.

Brent - as I said before - storms are hit / miss whether or not you live in or near an urban heat island. The only time they aren't is if you have a massive line form or an MCS (big cluster that holds together for 12+ hours and does widespread damage).

 

[St. Clown]

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Is there anything more typical that a bunch of Minnesotans arguing over the weather? Holy *ing Christ.

 

[Bakunin]

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Re: Rep Retirement Lodge 116: Who's to blame for the lack of a new thread this morning?

Is there anything more typical that a bunch of Minnesotans arguing over the weather? Holy *ing Christ.

No. Feel free to join in, fellow Minnesotan.