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Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread
- Thread starter brookyone
- Start date
Blackbeard
Well-known member
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread
Like Clarkson but very disappointed that NU is not in the mix.
Like Clarkson but very disappointed that NU is not in the mix.
ARM
Fan of chipmunk-like mascots.
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread
I think so. Wasn't it straightforward in 2006? I remember you being pretty accurate right up until 2007 when it started to get unpredictable.
brookyone
Deport Right Wing Nuts
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread
As it happens, so am I.
ManBehindTheCurtain
Great and powerful wizard
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread
I thought he also missed the pronunciation of the kids from North Dakota with the French name for whatever that's worth. And lots of people can properly render the French for "the lovers" into English.They should have talked to someone on how to properly pronounce a Finnish goaltender's name.
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread
2005 PWR did well with seeding, and even Dartmouth didn't expect they'd still get home ice over Wisconsin... but we didn't think they'd actually pay to effectively seed the whole bracket.
2006 was actually straightforward.
2007 I thought they'd still pair Harvard with Dartmouth and instead sent them to Wisconsin.
2008 They did the exact opposite and paired Harvard with Dartmouth
(and Minnesota with Wisconsin, etc., the end of the committees aversion to intraconference play)
2009 May have been straightforward too? I just like to forget this QF round, being more of an eastern guy
2010 Possibly also been straightforward, though I may not have expected Cornell to make it all the way up to the unofficial #5.
2011 I actually did ok in figuring out that BC would emerge with that mess with Mercyhurst & Minnesota to get home ice, but I didn't see the UMD-Wisconsin pairing coming.
2012 I definitely didn't forsee SLU ending up at BC. Maybe I thought they might send Mercyhurst to Cornell, but not Wisconsin.
2013 Finally, a bracket that makes sense to me.
Yeah, you're right.
2005 PWR did well with seeding, and even Dartmouth didn't expect they'd still get home ice over Wisconsin... but we didn't think they'd actually pay to effectively seed the whole bracket.
2006 was actually straightforward.
2007 I thought they'd still pair Harvard with Dartmouth and instead sent them to Wisconsin.
2008 They did the exact opposite and paired Harvard with Dartmouth
(and Minnesota with Wisconsin, etc., the end of the committees aversion to intraconference play)2009 May have been straightforward too? I just like to forget this QF round, being more of an eastern guy
2010 Possibly also been straightforward, though I may not have expected Cornell to make it all the way up to the unofficial #5.
2011 I actually did ok in figuring out that BC would emerge with that mess with Mercyhurst & Minnesota to get home ice, but I didn't see the UMD-Wisconsin pairing coming.
2012 I definitely didn't forsee SLU ending up at BC. Maybe I thought they might send Mercyhurst to Cornell, but not Wisconsin.
2013 Finally, a bracket that makes sense to me.
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread
USCHO doesn't calculate the Pairwise correctly. Done right, North Dakota is the #8 team.
USCHO doesn't calculate the Pairwise correctly. Done right, North Dakota is the #8 team.
ARM
Fan of chipmunk-like mascots.
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread
You explained it well in hindsight, but that wasn't what the PWR was forecasting.
It makes sense only because we've been beaten down to the point where we no longer question rematching a conference final a week later for the 12th meeting in two years of the teams. Six years ago, we'd have been very unimpressed.
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread
Interesting. So where do you guys get your numbers from?
Interesting. So where do you guys get your numbers from?
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread
That doesn't mean it was "done wrong" though. The women's committee has never said it uses the men's common opponent calculation. It's hard to say it's "right" or "wrong" since the selection process simply isn't as rigid as the men's.
But I agree that the current men's common opponent calculation is a much better predictor of the committee's behavior than what's in the women's PWR now, and USCHO should switch it next season.
It's true that if the USCHO women's PWR calculated common opponents like the men, it would have predicted the field correctly this year.
That doesn't mean it was "done wrong" though. The women's committee has never said it uses the men's common opponent calculation. It's hard to say it's "right" or "wrong" since the selection process simply isn't as rigid as the men's.
But I agree that the current men's common opponent calculation is a much better predictor of the committee's behavior than what's in the women's PWR now, and USCHO should switch it next season.
IceIsNice
Huh? Whoopie Pies? WHERE???
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread
Let me keep this short and simple......
(It is so tempting to take this to a different level, but instead I'll just keep doing my happy dance)
Let me keep this short and simple......
(It is so tempting to take this to a different level, but instead I'll just keep doing my happy dance)
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread
But in short the two main differences from what USCHO publishes are (1) the men's common opponent calculation has been a better predictor, and the women have effectively been doing it that way before the men, and (2) the women's committee will actually award comparisons to a team that has a "clear" advantage in 1 criterion and a "small" disadvantage in 3 criteria -- Dartmouth was selected over Clarkson under such circumstances in 2008. Similarly, RPI won't always be the tiebreaker if the criterion are evenly split.
(1) is easily fixed and USCHO should do that. There's not a whole lot USCHO can about (2).
Bottom line, both of these facts led most of us here to be fairly confident UND would be selected this season over Wisconsin.
Longtime members here have to look at the individual comparisons and compare them to what the committee has decided in the past.
But in short the two main differences from what USCHO publishes are (1) the men's common opponent calculation has been a better predictor, and the women have effectively been doing it that way before the men, and (2) the women's committee will actually award comparisons to a team that has a "clear" advantage in 1 criterion and a "small" disadvantage in 3 criteria -- Dartmouth was selected over Clarkson under such circumstances in 2008. Similarly, RPI won't always be the tiebreaker if the criterion are evenly split.
(1) is easily fixed and USCHO should do that. There's not a whole lot USCHO can about (2).
Bottom line, both of these facts led most of us here to be fairly confident UND would be selected this season over Wisconsin.
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread
hehehe Mista C ... you is funny
Let me keep this short and simple......
(It is so tempting to take this to a different level, but instead I'll just keep doing my happy dance)
hehehe Mista C ... you is funny
Hux
Alfond to Ridder & rinks in between
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread
A dart board, a medium, and that e-trade kid with a PWR ap on his smart phone
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ARM
Fan of chipmunk-like mascots.
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread
It can be easily fixed in theory. In practice, I doubt that's the case. If you followed the saga of Minnesota routinely disappearing from the PWR earlier in the year due to a zero RPI earlier in the season, you'd know that the script that does the rankings is a bit archaic. Also, we really don't know exactly how the committee handles these situations. Is there some tipping point? What if the comparison were far more convoluted than the one involving SLU and UND; do they decide that the comparison goes to one team or the other, or do they just decide that one is a tie and move on to the next criteria? A body of humans that changes from year to year can be difficult to emulate with a scripting language. If the process can't be defined 100%, there is no way to program it.