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Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread
- Thread starter brookyone
- Start date
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread
At the moment, I think the bracket speculation would be really short. Travel restrictions and bracket integrity lead to exactly the same conclusions:
#8 Wisconsin @ #1 Minnesota
#7 Mercyhurst @ #2 Harvard
#6 Clarkson @ #3 BC
#5 Cornell @ #4 BU
As for contempt, the math underlying PWR remains appalling, but there's not much to do about that.
At the moment, I think the bracket speculation would be really short. Travel restrictions and bracket integrity lead to exactly the same conclusions:
#8 Wisconsin @ #1 Minnesota
#7 Mercyhurst @ #2 Harvard
#6 Clarkson @ #3 BC
#5 Cornell @ #4 BU
As for contempt, the math underlying PWR remains appalling, but there's not much to do about that.
TonyTheTiger20
#SOAR
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread
I think it would be interesting to see what the committee would do if Cornell slotted up into the top 4. I almost think, regardless of seeds, you would see:
Wisco @ UM
Clarkson @ BC
BU @ Harvard
Hurst @ Cornell
No flights and just the one pretty much required intraconference matchup?
I think it would be interesting to see what the committee would do if Cornell slotted up into the top 4. I almost think, regardless of seeds, you would see:
Wisco @ UM
Clarkson @ BC
BU @ Harvard
Hurst @ Cornell
No flights and just the one pretty much required intraconference matchup?
ARM
Fan of chipmunk-like mascots.
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread
If that were the order, it would be nice if the committee would pop for a second flight and send UW to Harvard and Mercyhurst to Minnesota, especially if UW and UM had played in the WCHA tournament. Who knows, they could potentially recover that flight if the Badgers beat the Crimson.
OnMAA
Vort Doen.....Heija Heija Heija
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread
Can't argue much with this given the current rankings.....However, lots of games to be played yet, so this order can still change. There are still a lot of head to head matchups in the ECAC, HE and between them coming up. There are a couple of other teams knocking on the door, and if you get auto bid upsets like last year, the picture could change drastically.
From what I've seen BC and BU will be hard to knock off, but after Harvard, the fight in the ECAC is a little more wide open. If SLU makes a late charge, it could change things.
My predictions based on recent game results.....Wisco will continue to move up, forcing a hand of one team heading to Minny and Wisco coming east. The big variable is MC. Their series with BC this weekend could be pivotal for them to stay in as the CHA does not have an Autobid.
Can't argue much with this given the current rankings.....However, lots of games to be played yet, so this order can still change. There are still a lot of head to head matchups in the ECAC, HE and between them coming up. There are a couple of other teams knocking on the door, and if you get auto bid upsets like last year, the picture could change drastically.
From what I've seen BC and BU will be hard to knock off, but after Harvard, the fight in the ECAC is a little more wide open. If SLU makes a late charge, it could change things.
My predictions based on recent game results.....Wisco will continue to move up, forcing a hand of one team heading to Minny and Wisco coming east. The big variable is MC. Their series with BC this weekend could be pivotal for them to stay in as the CHA does not have an Autobid.
TonyTheTiger20
#SOAR
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread
I have serious doubts about this. Last year they sent the #5 seed to the #1. It doesn't seem they care all that much for protecting the #1 seed but minimizing flights is everything.
Hux
Alfond to Ridder & rinks in between
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread
I think it likely that Mercyhurst will fall with losses to BC, and Wisco will continue to rise....thus ending up at BC...(Harvard will drop in February...the Beanpot can be a real ***** eh?)
I think it likely that Mercyhurst will fall with losses to BC, and Wisco will continue to rise....thus ending up at BC...(Harvard will drop in February...the Beanpot can be a real ***** eh?)
OnMAA
Vort Doen.....Heija Heija Heija
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread
Yes, but in year's past there were sometimes three WCHA teams in the mix, which changes the math. If there are only two WCHA teams in the final mix, can only see them match up vs. each other if the second WCHA team is ranked 7th or 8th. ( Making the presumption that Minny stays in the 1 slot ). Now if MC drops out of the mix, which is a distinct possibility, then you are most likely looking at a third WCHA team in the mix. That will change things up, sending Wisco east, and the third WCHA team to Minny. Hux is right, a good chance that Wisco ends up in Beantown to face one of Harvard,BU or BC. Cornell, and Clarkson or the ECAC winner if it is not Harvard, would be the other team heading to Beantown in that scenario.
For what it is worth, here is my prediction :
Minny vs third WCHA entry (OHIO/UND/UMD, my money is on UND at this point)
Harvard vs Wisco
BU vs Cornell (Rubber Match, after 2011 and 2012 matches)
BC vs Clarkson (This time clarky with a full squad)
Yes, but in year's past there were sometimes three WCHA teams in the mix, which changes the math. If there are only two WCHA teams in the final mix, can only see them match up vs. each other if the second WCHA team is ranked 7th or 8th. ( Making the presumption that Minny stays in the 1 slot ). Now if MC drops out of the mix, which is a distinct possibility, then you are most likely looking at a third WCHA team in the mix. That will change things up, sending Wisco east, and the third WCHA team to Minny. Hux is right, a good chance that Wisco ends up in Beantown to face one of Harvard,BU or BC. Cornell, and Clarkson or the ECAC winner if it is not Harvard, would be the other team heading to Beantown in that scenario.
For what it is worth, here is my prediction :
Minny vs third WCHA entry (OHIO/UND/UMD, my money is on UND at this point)
Harvard vs Wisco
BU vs Cornell (Rubber Match, after 2011 and 2012 matches)
BC vs Clarkson (This time clarky with a full squad)
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TonyTheTiger20
#SOAR
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread
HAHAHA I know what you meant but that is hilarious and completely out of left field.
HAHAHA I know what you meant but that is hilarious and completely out of left field.
TonyTheTiger20
#SOAR
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread
Basically I'm just hoping & praying that the Eagz don't get Wisconsin. That's basically all I care about.
I'd like to avoid BU too, not because they aren't terrible -- because they are -- but because who knows what would happen in a rivalry game like that. Fortunately with all the eastern teams in the mix I don't think this is likely.
Basically I'm just hoping & praying that the Eagz don't get Wisconsin. That's basically all I care about.
I'd like to avoid BU too, not because they aren't terrible -- because they are -- but because who knows what would happen in a rivalry game like that. Fortunately with all the eastern teams in the mix I don't think this is likely.
ARM
Fan of chipmunk-like mascots.
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread
No worries. They're just one of those crappy outside-the-top-seven teams that the Gophers are always playing.
TonyTheTiger20
#SOAR
mnpokecheck
Drinking the Koolaid
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread
I suspect UND may need to win the WCHA Tourney to get in.
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread
I'm not so sure about that. UND has a HUGE series this weekend against Wisconsin, and it's very possible they could sweep them, at home. If they should pull that off, and if on the following weekend Wisconsin should go on to lose twice to Minnesota, then at that point it would appear that all bets are off. Both teams would still play Minnesota-Duluth, and if past history is any indication it's anybody's guess how those two series would play out. It could come down to the last weekend, when UND plays UMD in Duluth while Wisconsin travels to Bemidji.
OnMAA
Vort Doen.....Heija Heija Heija
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread
OOOOPs....Clearly up past my bed time...Fixed 'R up.
OOOOPs....Clearly up past my bed time...Fixed 'R up.
OnMAA
Vort Doen.....Heija Heija Heija
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread
Me thinks if UND does well down the stretch and gets to the WCHA final, they will be in. Having said that they have not done as well as I would have expected, but the intangibles suggest, to not count them out yet. Off course they would have to leap frog OHIO into third to have a reasonable chance to get to the WCHA final. If they get stuck in the four slot, they won't make it, as I can't see anyone besting Minny in the WCHA tourney. Either way, looking at the WCHA standings, the 2-5 placings are still a wide open horse race, and the two teams that finish in the 2-3 slot will both have a good chance to get to the tourney.
Me thinks if UND does well down the stretch and gets to the WCHA final, they will be in. Having said that they have not done as well as I would have expected, but the intangibles suggest, to not count them out yet. Off course they would have to leap frog OHIO into third to have a reasonable chance to get to the WCHA final. If they get stuck in the four slot, they won't make it, as I can't see anyone besting Minny in the WCHA tourney. Either way, looking at the WCHA standings, the 2-5 placings are still a wide open horse race, and the two teams that finish in the 2-3 slot will both have a good chance to get to the tourney.
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread
Now the only way that happens is if bracket integrity is virtually irrelevant. It don't think the NCAA would go that far. Instead, they'd bite the bullet and pay for the two flights. I think. But based on past decisions, one does wonder.
Now let's play it out one step further. If my Buckeyes do make it, likely they sneak into the #8 spot. But pair them with the presumed top seed, and you've got both a flight and an intra-conference match-up. Both bad things, presumably. That could give the NCAA some cover; it could argue that two bad things can be avoided by sacrificing bracket integrity -- only one bad thing.
Again, I believe that this is the scenario that "goes too far." But the fact the question even occurs to me suggests that the NCAA really has put too much emphasis on minimizing flights in the past.
This proposition could be put to the ultimate test this season. The scenario I'm about to described isn't the most likely outcome, but it isn't impossible either. Suppose Ohio State and Mercyhurst each win enough games to qualify for the tournament. If so, odds are high that both teams would be in the #5 through #8 group. No way should they be paired against each other. But at the same time, doing so would almost certainly eliminate TWO flights. If minimizing flights is truly everything, there's your match-up.
Now the only way that happens is if bracket integrity is virtually irrelevant. It don't think the NCAA would go that far. Instead, they'd bite the bullet and pay for the two flights. I think. But based on past decisions, one does wonder.
Now let's play it out one step further. If my Buckeyes do make it, likely they sneak into the #8 spot. But pair them with the presumed top seed, and you've got both a flight and an intra-conference match-up. Both bad things, presumably. That could give the NCAA some cover; it could argue that two bad things can be avoided by sacrificing bracket integrity -- only one bad thing.
Again, I believe that this is the scenario that "goes too far." But the fact the question even occurs to me suggests that the NCAA really has put too much emphasis on minimizing flights in the past.
TonyTheTiger20
#SOAR
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread
The NCAA wouldn't pair two 5-8 teams regardless of flights because they seed the top 4 teams.
As for OSU making it to #8, I think you would likely see the committee send OSU out east and Mercyhurst to Minnesota.
UNLESS Cornell makes the top 4. If Cornell is top four I think the committee would send Mercyhurst to New York which should not be a flight
The NCAA wouldn't pair two 5-8 teams regardless of flights because they seed the top 4 teams.
As for OSU making it to #8, I think you would likely see the committee send OSU out east and Mercyhurst to Minnesota.
UNLESS Cornell makes the top 4. If Cornell is top four I think the committee would send Mercyhurst to New York which should not be a flight
OnMAA
Vort Doen.....Heija Heija Heija
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread
Intra-Conference match-ups are not that uncommon, specially in the most recent two years, with Intra Conference more in vogue then previous years.
Note that as recently as 2009 and 2010 there were three Flight games.
2012 1 Intra Conf game: UND at Minny; 1 flight game - MC at Wisco
2011 2 Intra Conf games: UMD at Wisco and Darty at Cornell; 2 flight games - Minny at BC and MC at BU
2010 1 Intra Conf game: Harvard at Cornell; 3 flight games - BU at MC, UNH at UMD and Clarkson at Minny
2009 0 Intra Conf games: 3 flight games - Darty at Wisco, UMD at UNH, BC at Minny
Intra-Conference match-ups are not that uncommon, specially in the most recent two years, with Intra Conference more in vogue then previous years.
Note that as recently as 2009 and 2010 there were three Flight games.
2012 1 Intra Conf game: UND at Minny; 1 flight game - MC at Wisco
2011 2 Intra Conf games: UMD at Wisco and Darty at Cornell; 2 flight games - Minny at BC and MC at BU
2010 1 Intra Conf game: Harvard at Cornell; 3 flight games - BU at MC, UNH at UMD and Clarkson at Minny
2009 0 Intra Conf games: 3 flight games - Darty at Wisco, UMD at UNH, BC at Minny
Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread
I'm still not sold on Harvard being the clear favorite in the ECAC. Harvard's schedule to date hasn't been that strong. Harvard has typically done a good job of beating up on teams they should beat, and they have yet to play anyone from the north country. The only two games Harvard has played where one could reasonably expect them to possibly lose were against BU (which they lost) and Cornell (which they won). And to put it quite frankly, I was not overly impressed with Cornell's play in the Harvard game or in the games I watched leading up to or immediately after that game. I will give you that a good team can make another team not look too sharp, but since I wasn't super impressed with Cornell's play generally at that time, I'm not putting a lot of stock in that one game. Cornell has played much better since coming back from break, and I suspect we'll see a better game in February.
**It should be noted that I have little use for Harvard, and my bias against the Crimson could be clouding my judgement.**
I'm still not sold on Harvard being the clear favorite in the ECAC. Harvard's schedule to date hasn't been that strong. Harvard has typically done a good job of beating up on teams they should beat, and they have yet to play anyone from the north country. The only two games Harvard has played where one could reasonably expect them to possibly lose were against BU (which they lost) and Cornell (which they won). And to put it quite frankly, I was not overly impressed with Cornell's play in the Harvard game or in the games I watched leading up to or immediately after that game. I will give you that a good team can make another team not look too sharp, but since I wasn't super impressed with Cornell's play generally at that time, I'm not putting a lot of stock in that one game. Cornell has played much better since coming back from break, and I suspect we'll see a better game in February.
**It should be noted that I have little use for Harvard, and my bias against the Crimson could be clouding my judgement.**
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