The defense seems to be wrapped around a mix of "nuh uh, never happened. Cohen is a liar and did it all on his own and Trump never even knew anything about it." ... which is contradicted by the recording of him talking about the payments and their importance.
I've read/listened to some defense attorneys try to explain how you would defend a similar case with a client that wasn't... Trump. And they'd basically concede the fact that the payment was for the alleged purpose, and lean hard on "he didn't know it was illegal, he was trying to protect his wife, total panic, no harm intended" and simply hope you catch a couple of jurors that bought it and ignored the stated law. Alternatively you get the obvious conviction but not the felony conviction, or accept those but hope for super leniency in sentencing.
But Trump is not doing any of that. His whole defense is "never happened". So assuming there's a conviction, this would end up being the largest falsifying business record conviction in NYS history. Apparently only about 10% of these convictions result in jail time, but if this is, in fact, the largest in the state's history, wouldn't this be included in that 10%? I don't know the answer to that. Were there other crimes involved in those convictions that may or may not be present here?
Ultimately this case seems like the second most open-and-shut (behind the classified documents case), albeit with the lowest stakes. Unlike the Carroll case and the NYAG case, Trump has actually mounted something approaching a defense, tepid and inept as it is.