Kepler
Cornell Big Red
Re: POTUS 45:50: Crooked Hillary Clinton. The Real Collusion!!!!!!!
This just in. Dumpies lie.
This just in. Dumpies lie.
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POTUS 45:50: Crooked Hillary Clinton. The Real Collusion!!!!!!!
- Thread starter ScoobyDoo
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St. Clown
Ideas Posted are Likely Not My Own
Re: POTUS 45:50: Crooked Hillary Clinton. The Real Collusion!!!!!!!
Yes and no. That information is captured in other metrics, not just the officially reported U ratings. U itself has many different levels, and this is a direct copy from Wikipedia, which has it right:
The Bureau of Labor Statistics also calculates six alternate measures of unemployment, U1 through U6, that measure different aspects of unemployment:[47]
U1:[48] Percentage of labor force unemployed 15 weeks or longer.
U2: Percentage of labor force who lost jobs or completed temporary work.
U3: Official unemployment rate per the ILO definition occurs when people are without jobs and they have actively looked for work within the past four weeks.[49]
U4: U3 + "discouraged workers", or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditions make them believe that no work is available for them.
U5: U4 + other "marginally attached workers", or "loosely attached workers", or those who "would like" and are able to work, but have not looked for work recently.
U6: U5 + Part-time workers who want to work full-time, but cannot due to economic reasons (underemployment).
Yes and no. That information is captured in other metrics, not just the officially reported U ratings. U itself has many different levels, and this is a direct copy from Wikipedia, which has it right:
The Bureau of Labor Statistics also calculates six alternate measures of unemployment, U1 through U6, that measure different aspects of unemployment:[47]
U1:[48] Percentage of labor force unemployed 15 weeks or longer.
U2: Percentage of labor force who lost jobs or completed temporary work.
U3: Official unemployment rate per the ILO definition occurs when people are without jobs and they have actively looked for work within the past four weeks.[49]
U4: U3 + "discouraged workers", or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditions make them believe that no work is available for them.
U5: U4 + other "marginally attached workers", or "loosely attached workers", or those who "would like" and are able to work, but have not looked for work recently.
U6: U5 + Part-time workers who want to work full-time, but cannot due to economic reasons (underemployment).
Re: POTUS 45:50: Crooked Hillary Clinton. The Real Collusion!!!!!!!
The lawsuit itself was ridiculous.
Daniels signed a non-disclosure agreement and Trump paid her money for it. Then when Avenatti wanted to make the talk show rounds with Daniels and chat about her night with Trump, he filed this lawsuit as a preemptive strike to try to prevent enforcement of the NDA. The problem is, as the judge noted yesterday, no one was trying to enforce the agreement. Thus the judge's decision which is basically, "why are you all here in front of me?"
The lawsuit itself was ridiculous.
Daniels signed a non-disclosure agreement and Trump paid her money for it. Then when Avenatti wanted to make the talk show rounds with Daniels and chat about her night with Trump, he filed this lawsuit as a preemptive strike to try to prevent enforcement of the NDA. The problem is, as the judge noted yesterday, no one was trying to enforce the agreement. Thus the judge's decision which is basically, "why are you all here in front of me?"
Slap Shot
I got nothing
Kepler
Cornell Big Red
Re: POTUS 45:50: Crooked Hillary Clinton. The Real Collusion!!!!!!!
As I recall the gap between them doesn't really change at all, so as long as you stick with the same measure the trending picture will always be the same.
But I've always been far more comfortable calling "real" unemployment U6, which now is about 10%.
<img src="https://www.careercapitalist.com/.a/6a00d8345275cf69e201b8d24f2745970c-600wi" height="300">
As I recall the gap between them doesn't really change at all, so as long as you stick with the same measure the trending picture will always be the same.
But I've always been far more comfortable calling "real" unemployment U6, which now is about 10%.
<img src="https://www.careercapitalist.com/.a/6a00d8345275cf69e201b8d24f2745970c-600wi" height="300">
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Re: POTUS 45:50: Crooked Hillary Clinton. The Real Collusion!!!!!!!
You keep telling yourself that...
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">...very common among celebrities and people of wealth. In this case it is in full force and effect and will be used in Arbitration for damages against Ms. Clifford (Daniels). The agreement was used to stop the false and extortionist accusations made by her about an affair,......</p>— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/991994433750142976?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 3, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
You keep telling yourself that...
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">...very common among celebrities and people of wealth. In this case it is in full force and effect and will be used in Arbitration for damages against Ms. Clifford (Daniels). The agreement was used to stop the false and extortionist accusations made by her about an affair,......</p>— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/991994433750142976?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 3, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
St. Clown
Ideas Posted are Likely Not My Own
Re: POTUS 45:50: Crooked Hillary Clinton. The Real Collusion!!!!!!!
Now that he's said that he's going to use it, the judge's ruling effectively becomes moot and Trump just tweeted himself into another lawsuit on the matter. He's the smartest POTUS we've ever had!
Now that he's said that he's going to use it, the judge's ruling effectively becomes moot and Trump just tweeted himself into another lawsuit on the matter. He's the smartest POTUS we've ever had!
Re: POTUS 45:50: Crooked Hillary Clinton. The Real Collusion!!!!!!!
Avenatti knows a lot more than I do about such things, but it's a little surprising it wasn't filed as a declaratory judgment action. Maybe that was pleaded as well. Wouldn't change much once trump admitted the Agreement was not enforceable.
Avenatti knows a lot more than I do about such things, but it's a little surprising it wasn't filed as a declaratory judgment action. Maybe that was pleaded as well. Wouldn't change much once trump admitted the Agreement was not enforceable.
Re: POTUS 45:50: Crooked Hillary Clinton. The Real Collusion!!!!!!!
So here's one question that I wonder how it is counted- people who retire and are not backfilled.
IMHO, WRT the overall impact on the economy, if you choose to retire, then you have made plans to continue as a consumer in some way. Therefore, that loss in a job may be noted, but it's not a bad thing on the overall economy as whole.
When you have those kind of people, that's a reduction in the workforce, which offsets any new jobs as a net zero to the economy. Which would make a small reduction in the unemployment rate with an increase of jobs that does not match very well not a bad thing. The bad part about people leaving the work rolls are the ones who can not remain consumers in the overall economy. They are a net drain.
Does that make sense? I'm not sure it does to me.... lol.
So here's one question that I wonder how it is counted- people who retire and are not backfilled.
IMHO, WRT the overall impact on the economy, if you choose to retire, then you have made plans to continue as a consumer in some way. Therefore, that loss in a job may be noted, but it's not a bad thing on the overall economy as whole.
When you have those kind of people, that's a reduction in the workforce, which offsets any new jobs as a net zero to the economy. Which would make a small reduction in the unemployment rate with an increase of jobs that does not match very well not a bad thing. The bad part about people leaving the work rolls are the ones who can not remain consumers in the overall economy. They are a net drain.
Does that make sense? I'm not sure it does to me.... lol.
St. Clown
Ideas Posted are Likely Not My Own
Re: POTUS 45:50: Crooked Hillary Clinton. The Real Collusion!!!!!!!
The U-rate isn't measuring the number of people who have jobs, only the estimated number of people who are looking for work when compared to the estimated workforce. (Note: We do not have exact figures on either, it's all statistical analysis from a significant sample size.) So that one person has such little impact that it's not seen in the numbers. For the person still looking for work, there's no impact because that person still has to look for work elsewhere.
Don't get me wrong, for the Average Joe, eliminating that position because someone chose to leave is not a good thing. Until it happens in droves, there's little impact at the macroeconomic scale, and that's what's being measured with the unemployment rates.
The U-rate isn't measuring the number of people who have jobs, only the estimated number of people who are looking for work when compared to the estimated workforce. (Note: We do not have exact figures on either, it's all statistical analysis from a significant sample size.) So that one person has such little impact that it's not seen in the numbers. For the person still looking for work, there's no impact because that person still has to look for work elsewhere.
Don't get me wrong, for the Average Joe, eliminating that position because someone chose to leave is not a good thing. Until it happens in droves, there's little impact at the macroeconomic scale, and that's what's being measured with the unemployment rates.
Re: POTUS 45:50: Crooked Hillary Clinton. The Real Collusion!!!!!!!
The thing is that there's a LOT of retirement without a backfill going on. Even the company I work for wants to downsize, and expect all of that to come from retirements. And for my specific company, that number is significant when compared to 20k new jobs.
So I'm trying to temper the pessimism of so many people leaving the job force. Otherwise, the news of so few people having such a big impact on the overall employment is really, really bad news.
The thing is that there's a LOT of retirement without a backfill going on. Even the company I work for wants to downsize, and expect all of that to come from retirements. And for my specific company, that number is significant when compared to 20k new jobs.
So I'm trying to temper the pessimism of so many people leaving the job force. Otherwise, the news of so few people having such a big impact on the overall employment is really, really bad news.
St. Clown
Ideas Posted are Likely Not My Own
Re: POTUS 45:50: Crooked Hillary Clinton. The Real Collusion!!!!!!!
Any way you slice it, 20K isn't a good thing. We need about 180K new jobs each month to handle the increase in population. Because we didn't get anywhere near that, we know people are dropping form the workforce numbers - reducing the denominator in the equation. And then Trump's going to tout it because his base won't look beyond the simple and wrong nature of his boastful tweets - most of them wouldn't know how to do so in the first place.
Any way you slice it, 20K isn't a good thing. We need about 180K new jobs each month to handle the increase in population. Because we didn't get anywhere near that, we know people are dropping form the workforce numbers - reducing the denominator in the equation. And then Trump's going to tout it because his base won't look beyond the simple and wrong nature of his boastful tweets - most of them wouldn't know how to do so in the first place.
The Sicatoka
Kicizapi Cetan
Re: POTUS 45:50: Crooked Hillary Clinton. The Real Collusion!!!!!!!
There is no way to put a positive spin on that 20k number. None.
There is no way to put a positive spin on that 20k number. None.
The Sicatoka
Kicizapi Cetan
Kepler
Cornell Big Red
Re: POTUS 45:50: Crooked Hillary Clinton. The Real Collusion!!!!!!!
I thought you meant Ben Carson.
On Kos they did Shine's tenure in Scaramuccis (roughly 27).
I thought you meant Ben Carson.
On Kos they did Shine's tenure in Scaramuccis (roughly 27).
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Handyman
Hug someone you care about...
Re: POTUS 45:50: Crooked Hillary Clinton. The Real Collusion!!!!!!!
That report about Faux and the President meant he was going to fall on the sword. They needed something to take away from the fact that the worlds worst kept secret was broken down in such an easily digestible manner that even Trumpers could understand it. (if they can read)
That report about Faux and the President meant he was going to fall on the sword. They needed something to take away from the fact that the worlds worst kept secret was broken down in such an easily digestible manner that even Trumpers could understand it. (if they can read)
bronconick
Yep, still here
Re: POTUS 45:50: Crooked Hillary Clinton. The Real Collusion!!!!!!!
Wonder how much of the shutdown hamstrung that month?
Wonder how much of the shutdown hamstrung that month?
rufus
rock and roller
And extremely antagonistic to the prosecution.
Re: POTUS 45:50: Crooked Hillary Clinton. The Real Collusion!!!!!!!
A guest on NPR today made that exact point, saying that you need to average the January and February numbers to account for the effect of the partial shutdown.
A guest on NPR today made that exact point, saying that you need to average the January and February numbers to account for the effect of the partial shutdown.
aparch
Well-known member
Re: POTUS 45:50: Crooked Hillary Clinton. The Real Collusion!!!!!!!
And because nothing ever fully disappears from the internet, the Internet Archive has a snapshot of the website from last August.
Funny how the plug was pulled on the website the day the story broke. Didn't that happen with one of Manafort's websites too when an unsavory story broke?
Boy Trump sure surrounds himself with all the best people, doesn't he?
Well, the club may not be the direct connection, it appears that the founder of the spas found a more lucrative way to make money by providing a path to Trump for Chinese executives needing his ear...
And because nothing ever fully disappears from the internet, the Internet Archive has a snapshot of the website from last August.
Funny how the plug was pulled on the website the day the story broke. Didn't that happen with one of Manafort's websites too when an unsavory story broke?
Boy Trump sure surrounds himself with all the best people, doesn't he?
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