Re: Patty Kazmaier 2014
OK, I wrote my last post confident that I knew what I was talking about, but looked it up just to be sure.
Last year, at the conclusion of the season, the Gophers 5th highest pt scorer on the season had 32 pts. This years team already has 5 with 32. Ramsey has 31, Cam has 27, Meghan has 26, Menefee has 25 and Schipper has 24. It's likely that there could be 10 Gophers this year with over 32 pts on the season, compared to 4 last year. But last years team had a 101 pt scorer in Kessel and Brandt had 82, while the top Gopher this year only has 50 pts. The way they all seem to be sharing the load this season, at their current rate of approximately 1.5 pts per game, my guess is that neither Bona or Brandt will breach 70 pts this season.
Now, that just leaves goaltending. I had a suspicion that it wouldn't be fair to count the Minnesota games against Rigsby, as she's only had 23 goals against this season and just as I suspected, just shy of half of those came in her 4 games vs UMn. Also, her only losses on the season came against UMn. And seeing as Amanda doesn't have to go up against the Gophers, is it fair to include those games? On the otherhand, Amanda had to face the #2 ranked team in the nation 4 times, while Rigsby never had to? And Amanda played extremely well vs the #2 team in the nation whereas Rigsby didn't do very well vs #1. Amanda allowed 3 goals in 4 games vs UW, and Rigsby allowed 11 goals in 4 games vs UMn.
And throwing things off a little is the fact that Rigsby is a Sr and they are letting their Frosh Goalie play a lot of games, so unlike Amanda who has to face teams gunning for her back to back nights, where more often than not she shuts them out in the 1st game, only to give up a couple in the 2nd. Teams might be needing one game to figure her out, or maybe after getting shut out they get more fired up the 2nd game, or maybe after shutting them out Amanda relaxs or gets lazy in the 2nd game? I'm no expert, but the pattern was almost 100% before this last weekend series with Wisconsin, which could possibly fit the pattern as well depending on what the explanation for this pattern really is. But that's a different issue. Point is, Rigsby, when she takes a night off, its the Saturday or 2nd game of the series, whereas Amanda plays all of those games and those are where the vast majority of the goals against have come.
Just something to keep in mind.
But in games vs common opponents, it might be interesting to know that
Rigsby vs Mn St she allowed 1 goal in 2 games, Amanda allowed 1 goal in 4 games. Adv Amanda
Rigsby vs SCSU she allowed 1 goal in 1 game, Amanda allowed 5 goals in 4 games. Slight adv Rigsby
Rigsby vs OSU she allowed 5 goals in 4 games, Amanda allowed 5 goals in 4 games. A wash
Rigsby vs UND she allowed 1 goal in 2 games, Amanda allowed 6 goals in 4 games. Adv Rigsby
Rigsby vs UMD she allowed 3 goals in 4 games, Amanda allowed 3 goals in 2 games. Adv Rigsby
Rigsby vs BSU she allowed 1 goal in 1 game, Amanda allowed 6 goals in 4 games. Slight Adv Rigsby
Rigsby vs UMn she allowed 11 goals in 4 games, Amanda allowed 3 goals in 4 games vs UW. Huge Adv Amanda
If you average the games vs common opponents out in a way that can easily be calculated, I come up with
Rigsby with 26 goals against in 21 games and
Amanda with 24 goals against in 21 games.
If you take out each players 4 worst games, the gap becomes even wider, Rigsby has 15 goals against in 17 games and Amanda has 12 goals against in 17 games.
Also of note is that Rigsby has only 5 shut outs in 20 games or 1/4th of her games, whereas Amanda has 11 shut outs in 32 games or over 1/3rd of her games.
And the only way someone can really argue that its simply not fair to include the 4 games Rigsby had to play against the Gophers or that its not fair to pick and choose which 4 games not to include when looking at Amanda's resume, is to make an argument that despite Wisconsin being the #2 ranked team in the country, the gap between UMn and UW is much wider that it would seem. But that would only be true if UMn couldn't lose, but we know that they can and have come very close to losing on several occasions. And since UW fans can't just give the Natl Title to UMn without having to play the games, I don't see any reason to just give the Kaz Award to Rigsby without her having to prove herself, either.
Now as for any other players being excluded from my consideration?! With the Top scorer in the country probably only scoring around 65-70 pts this year, compared to Amanda's 101 last year, it would seem that goalies should get more consideration. I suppose the argument is going to be made that all the best players are playing in Sochi, so goalies have it easier this season, but a lot of those ladies in the olympics are done with college hockey and not all of them were primarily offensive players. And how many of the Top Goalies in the Olympics are coming back to school next year? Any of the Top 4 or 5? Just things to think about.