Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

[Ralph Baer]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Um, what?

You can't spell CAnIsius without AIC?

 

[Red Cows]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Very true and on the road no less. They also kept it to within 1 against Minnesota on the road. Pretty good for a team that hasn't beaten a non-conference NCAA Tournament team (and I hope this doesn't jinx Quinnipiac) since at least 1998 (as far back as USCHO goes).

Maybe the Yellow Jackets are on the up and up.

A 5-13-3 team that's 2-7-1 at home and plays in the AHA?

And when did this Minnesota game take place?

 

[Mile High Hockey]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

You can't spell CAnIsius without AIC?

Hahaha...oops. That is true though. For whatever reason, I was thinking that it was AIC in that game and not Canisius.

As for AIC, they seem to be better this season than usual (hence the up and up comment). Their .310 win percentage is their best in a decade...and with 2 more games against Sacred Heart...they just might break double digits in wins.

 

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Fairbanks wins:
1-QU
2-Minny
3-Yale
4-BC
5-UNH
6-Miami
7-SCSU
8-Lowell
9-BU
10-WMU
11-UAF (Jumps this high because LSSU is no longer TUC)
12-NoDak
13-Denver
14-Mankato
15-NoDame
16-Niagara


Providence: QU(1), Lowell(8), BU(9), Niagara(16)
Grand Rapids: Minny(2), SCSU(7), WMU(10), NoDame(15)
Manchester: Yale(3), UNH(5-host), UAF(11), Mankato(14)
Toledo: BC(4), Miami(6), NoDak(12), Denver(13)

Since I want WMU in Grand Rapids, swap SCSU and Lowell to avoid BU/Lowell
I can not move NoDame to Toledo, because that would leave Minny vs WCHA.

Providence: QU(1), SCSU(7), BU(9), Niagara(16)
Grand Rapids: Minny(2), Lowell(8), WMU(10), NoDame(15)
Manchester: Yale(3), UNH(5-host), UAF(11), Mankato(14)
Toledo: BC(4), Miami(6), NoDak(12), Denver(13)


Northern Michigan wins:
1-QU
2-Minny
3-Yale
4-BC
5-UNH
6-Miami
7-SCSU
8-Lowell
9-WMU
10-BU
11-NoDak
12-Denver
13-Mankato
14-NoDame
15-Dartmouth
16-Niagara

Providence: QU(1), Lowell(8), WMU(9), Niagara(16)
Grand Rapids: Minny(2), SCSU(7), BU(10), Dartmouth(15)
Manchester: Yale(3), UNH(5-host), NoDak(11), NoDame(14)
Toledo: BC(4), Miami(6), Denver(12), Mankato(13)

Here, there are 2 choices for attendance: I can swap the Lowell/WMU game for the SCSU/BU game to get BU instead of Lowell in Providence, and WMU in Grand Rapids.
And, I (Numbers’ opinion here, not predicting the committee) would swap NoDak and NoDame for Denver and Mankato to get NoDame to Toledo. NoDak goes along here for competitive balance.

Providence: QU(1), SCSU(7), BU(10), Niagara(16)
Grand Rapids: Minny(2), Lowell(8), WMU(9), Dartmouth(15)
Manchester: Yale(3), UNH(5-host), Denver(12), Mankato(13)
Toledo: BC(4), Miami(6), NoDak(11), NoDame(14)

 

[LTsatch]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

The Yale one seed is a height I did not expect the team to reach this season and don't expect them to maintain, although everyone except QU is falling back, Yale still has a home and home with QU left, great stuff!

 

[Priceless]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

The three top seeds that played tonight all lost. Luckily for Quinnipiac, they had the night off.

Depending on what happens with the late game we have two different scenarios.

If Fairbanks wins:

[B]Manchester (UNH)Providence (Brown)	Toledo (BGSU)	        Grand Rapids (Michigan)[/B]
Yale		Quinnipiac		Boston College		Minnesota
New Hamp	Lowell			Miami			St Cloud
North Dakota	Fairbanks		Boston U		W Michigan
Mankato		Niagara			Denver			Notre Dame

If Northern wins or there is a tie:

[B]Manchester (UNH)Providence (Brown)	Toledo (BGSU)		Grand Rapids (Michigan)[/B]
Yale		Quinnipiac		Boston College		Minnesota
New Hamp	Lowell			Miami			St Cloud
Denver		North Dakota		Boston U		W Michigan
Mankato	        Niagara			Notre Dame		Dartmouth

 

[Priceless]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Everything is final except for the late game in Fairbanks.

The top 10 of the pairwise is set no matter what happens:

1 Quinnipiac
2 Minnesota
3 New Hampshire
4 Miami
5 Yale
6 Boston College
7 Mass.-Lowell
8 Western Michigan
9 St. Cloud State
10 North Dakota

The auto bid in the AHA goes to Niagara, so 1-10 and 16 are known.

If the Nanooks win:

11 Boston University
12 Alaska-Fairbanks
13 Denver
14 Notre Dame
15 Dartmouth

That would give us:

[B]Manchester (UNH)	Providence (Brown)	Toledo (BGSU)		Grand Rapids (Michigan)[/B]
New Hamp		Quinnipiac		Miami			Minnesota
Boston C		Lowell			Yale			W Michigan
Alaska-Fairbanks	North Dakota		Boston U		St Cloud
Notre Dame		Niagara			Denver			Dartmouth

If Northern wins:

11 Denver
12 Boston University
13 Notre Dame
14 Dartmouth
15 Minnesota State

which results in

[B]Manchester (UNH)Providence (Brown)	Toledo (BGSU)		Grand Rapids (Michigan)[/B]
New Hamp	Quinnipiac		Miami			Minnesota
Boston C	Lowell			Yale			W Michigan
Denver		North Dakota		Boston U		St Cloud
Dartmouth	Niagara			Mankato			Notre Dame

and a tie

11 Boston University
12 Denver
13 Notre Dame
14 Alaska-Fairbanks
15 Dartmouth

and that gives us

[B]Manchester (UNH)Providence (Brown)	Toledo (BGSU)		Grand Rapids (Michigan)[/B]
New Hamp	Quinnipiac		Miami			Minnesota
Boston C	Lowell			Yale			W Michigan
Denver		North Dakota		Boston U		St Cloud
Alaska	       Niagara			Dartmouth	        Notre Dame

The TUC line will be

Robert Morris
Cornell
Merrimack
Holy Cross
---
St. Lawrence
Minnesota-Duluth
Massachusetts
Colorado College

 

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Priceless.

I won't quote your post. I agree with everything except that in case of a tie, AK-Fairbanks can't play Miami, so Alaska and Dartmouth have to swap as well.

 

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Saturday 2-2-13.

Providence: QU(1), St Cloud (8), UAF (10) (trade to avoid WMU), Mankato (16)
Grand Rapids: Minny (2), WMU (7), Niagara (9), Lowell (15)
Toledo: Miami (3), Yale (6), Denver (11), BU (14)
Manchester: BC (4), UNH (5), NoDak (12), Dartmouth (13)

Providence would appear to need help. Swap Mankato for BU? Can't swap for Lowell, because Mankato v Minny not allowed

Providence: QU(1), St Cloud (8), UAF (10) (trade to avoid WMU), BU (14)
Grand Rapids: Minny (2), WMU (7), Niagara (9), Lowell (15)
Toledo: Miami (3), Yale (6), Denver (11), Mankato (16)
Manchester: BC (4), UNH (5), NoDak (12), Dartmouth (13)

Other possibility is to swap Yale/Denver game for SCSU/UAF

Providence: QU(1), Yale (6), Denver (11), Mankato (16)
Grand Rapids: Minny (2), WMU (7), Niagara (9), Lowell (15)
Toledo: Miami (3), SCSU (8), UAF (10), BU (14)
Manchester: BC (4), UNH (5), NoDak (12), Dartmouth (13)

 

[Priceless]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Anchorage and CC Tie

[B]Manchester (UNH)	Providence (Brown)	Toledo (BGSU)		Grand Rapids (Michigan)[/B]
Boston C		Quinnipiac		Miami			Minnesota
New Hamp		St Cloud		Yale			W Michigan
No Dakota		Niagara			Boston U		Denver
Alaska			Notre Dame		Mankato			Lowell

 

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Priceless,

Again I won't quote your post. I am interested in your reasoning. The bracket as you have it is as strict a serpentine as possible. (I mean for the tie result last night in the CC-AA game which was the actual result.)

I count 11 flights in that bracket: NoDak, UAF, SCSU, Niagara, NoDame, Minny, Denver, Lowell, Yale, BU and Mankato. I am not sure about Niagara and Minny - if those really require flights, and they are not important for my question:

If the committee swapped Lowell and NoDame in your bracket, it seems to me it would save 2 flights, and help attendance at 2 places. The first round games would be: Manchester - No changes. Providence - QU v Lowell (1 v 14). Toledo - Miami v Mankato (3 v 15). GR - Minny v NoDame (2 v 16 and it's your matchup, too). Now, I see that is somewhat unbalanced toward QU. However, there is no auto-bid #16 here. Niagara is actually the 9th seed. There isn't much difference in the 14, 15 and 16 seeds.

You seem to think the committee would yet adhere to a tighter serpentine bracket. I defer to your experience. I am curious, though, as to why you seem to think that.

Thank you.

 

[Priceless]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Priceless,

Again I won't quote your post. I am interested in your reasoning. The bracket as you have it is as strict a serpentine as possible. (I mean for the tie result last night in the CC-AA game which was the actual result.)

I count 11 flights in that bracket: NoDak, UAF, SCSU, Niagara, NoDame, Minny, Denver, Lowell, Yale, BU and Mankato. I am not sure about Niagara and Minny - if those really require flights, and they are not important for my question:

If the committee swapped Lowell and NoDame in your bracket, it seems to me it would save 2 flights, and help attendance at 2 places. The first round games would be: Manchester - No changes. Providence - QU v Lowell (1 v 14). Toledo - Miami v Mankato (3 v 15). GR - Minny v NoDame (2 v 16 and it's your matchup, too). Now, I see that is somewhat unbalanced toward QU. However, there is no auto-bid #16 here. Niagara is actually the 9th seed. There isn't much difference in the 14, 15 and 16 seeds.

You seem to think the committee would yet adhere to a tighter serpentine bracket. I defer to your experience. I am curious, though, as to why you seem to think that.

Thank you.

There will be seven flights no matter what. That's part of the problem with putting both western regional sites so far east.

The 1-16 game has always been sacrosanct. The committee has always protected the #1 overall seed whenever possible. The exceptions are in 2003 when 2 WCHA teams finished as 1 seeds and as 4 seeds, forcing #1 Cornell to play #14 Mankato and in 2009 when 2 CCHA teams likewise finished in the 1 and 4 positions forcing #1 BU to play #15 Ohio State. My theory when there were two autobid teams (the CHA and AHA) was that they were essentially interchangeable. This year we have a unique case where it seems that only if Niagara goes on a losing streak or fails to win the AHA autobid will they be seeded #16. In that case the committee might decide the 1-16 matchup is not sacrosanct and switch #16 Notre Dame and #14 Lowell for attendance purposes. However, the committee would view that as an undeserved slight by making the #1 overall seed play anyone but #16 - and would be seen as a money grab by pretty much anyone outside the committee room.
Until the committee shows me otherwise, I'll assume the 1-16 game will be protected if at all possible.

 

[Numbers]

There will be seven flights no matter what. That's part of the problem with putting both western regional sites so far east.

Thanks for the reply. Could you elaborate on the 7 flights no matter what? I think am missing something there too.

 

[Priceless]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Thanks for the reply. Could you elaborate on the 7 flights no matter what? I think am missing something there too.

Denver, Minnesota, Mankato, North Dakota, St Cloud and Alaska all fly no matter where they are placed. Niagara is over 400 miles from Providence, but only 300 from Toledo, so they could actually drive there. That would tend to indicate a BU-Niagara switch which would eliminate two flights and (presumably) help attendance in Providence. The downside is that creates 6-9 and 8-12 pairings, which would be less than ideal. You could also move the Yale-BU game and the SCSU-Niagara games and not hurt bracket integrity too much.

My bad for assuming Niagara was having to fly without checking Toledo. Doh!

See, that's another reason to do the early bracketology: to work out mistakes in the system so we can predict the field before we see it announced on ESPN. Don't stop asking questions! I've been doing this for 8-9 years and still make errors.

 

[kingdobbs]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Thanks for the reply. Could you elaborate on the 7 flights no matter what? I think am missing something there too.

Anything over a certain mileage of driving (the magic number is 300) is considered to be a "flight", regardless of whether or not the university *would* fly to that location. In terms of how the NCAA will try to place teams in the regionals, they will only allow closeness to be an consideration overriding bracket integrity when it comes to universities within the 300 mile circle; this is colloquially known as "a flight is a flight" around the boards (that is, once a team is already flying, it doesn't matter where they end up).

Of the current Bracketology 16, 7 of them are more than 300 miles from every regional: Denver, Alaska, North Dakota, Minnesota State, Minnesota, St. Cloud and Niagara (although Niagara is within a long bus ride of all four locations, none of them are smaller than 300 miles in distance*). That means they will go where they are placed based on bracket integrity, and avoidance of in-conference first-round matchups. They won't try and force any of them to go to their "closest" regional.

*Well, technically Niagara is within 300 miles of Toledo if one drives through Canada, but I do not know whether the NCAA takes cross-border travel into consideration.

 

[Numbers]

Denver, Minnesota, Mankato, North Dakota, St Cloud and Alaska all fly no matter where they are placed. Niagara is over 400 miles from Providence, but only 300 from Toledo, so they could actually drive there. That would tend to indicate a BU-Niagara switch which would eliminate two flights and (presumably) help attendance in Providence. The downside is that creates 6-9 and 8-12 pairings, which would be less than ideal. You could also move the Yale-BU game and the SCSU-Niagara games and not hurt bracket integrity too much.

My bad for assuming Niagara was having to fly without checking Toledo. Doh!

See, that's another reason to do the early bracketology: to work out mistakes in the system so we can predict the field before we see it announced on ESPN. Don't stop asking questions! I've been doing this for 8-9 years and still make errors.

Thanks. I thought the 7 was in regard to the present bracket situation, when I was counting more than that.

 

[Numbers]

Anything over a certain mileage of driving (the magic number is 300) is considered to be a "flight", regardless of whether or not the university *would* fly to that location. In terms of how the NCAA will try to place teams in the regionals, they will only allow closeness to be an consideration overriding bracket integrity when it comes to universities within the 300 mile circle; this is colloquially known as "a flight is a flight" around the boards (that is, once a team is already flying, it doesn't matter where they end up).

Of the current Bracketology 16, 7 of them are more than 300 miles from every regional: Denver, Alaska, North Dakota, Minnesota State, Minnesota, St. Cloud and Niagara (although Niagara is within a long bus ride of all four locations, none of them are smaller than 300 miles in distance*). That means they will go where they are placed based on bracket integrity, and avoidance of in-conference first-round matchups. They won't try and force any of them to go to their "closest" regional.

*Well, technically Niagara is within 300 miles of Toledo if one drives through Canada, but I do not know whether the NCAA takes cross-border travel into consideration.

Thanks to you, too.

 

[IrishHockeyFan]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Anything over a certain mileage of driving (the magic number is 300) is considered to be a "flight", regardless of whether or not the university *would* fly to that location. In terms of how the NCAA will try to place teams in the regionals, they will only allow closeness to be an consideration overriding bracket integrity when it comes to universities within the 300 mile circle; this is colloquially known as "a flight is a flight" around the boards (that is, once a team is already flying, it doesn't matter where they end up).

Of the current Bracketology 16, 7 of them are more than 300 miles from every regional: Denver, Alaska, North Dakota, Minnesota State, Minnesota, St. Cloud and Niagara (although Niagara is within a long bus ride of all four locations, none of them are smaller than 300 miles in distance*). That means they will go where they are placed based on bracket integrity, and avoidance of in-conference first-round matchups. They won't try and force any of them to go to their "closest" regional.

*Well, technically Niagara is within 300 miles of Toledo if one drives through Canada, but I do not know whether the NCAA takes cross-border travel into consideration.

I think the magic number is actually 400 miles. Under 400 is a drive, 400 or more is a flight. I also believe the NCAA uses a specific mapping program to determine distances and if this rule then applies. Priceless (or Alton if he's lurking, he seems to know ALL this stuff and ought to be on speed dial for all of us to ask these questions) might be able to answer more definitively.

 

[Priceless]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

I think the magic number is actually 400 miles. Under 400 is a drive, 400 or more is a flight. I also believe the NCAA uses a specific mapping program to determine distances and if this rule then applies. Priceless (or Alton if he's lurking, he seems to know ALL this stuff and ought to be on speed dial for all of us to ask these questions) might be able to answer more definitively.

It is 400 miles. I can't remember off the top of my head which mapping software the NCAA uses but I use Google Maps and occasionally Delorme. I have 58 teams programmed in (don't have PSU yet) and can do the 400 miles radius pretty quickly.

Thanks to Maine defeating the Chiefs today Dartmouth is in the tournament.

1 Quinnipiac
2 Minnesota
3 Miami
4 Boston College
5 New Hampshire
6 Western Michigan
7 Yale
8 St. Cloud State
9 Niagara
10 North Dakota
11 Boston University
12 Denver
13 Minnesota State
14 Alaska-Fairbanks
15 Dartmouth
16 Notre Dame

[B]Manchester (UNH)	Providence (Brown)	Toledo (BGSU)		Grand Rapids (Michigan)[/B]
Boston C		Quinnipiac		Miami			Minnesota
New Hamp		St Cloud		W Michigan		Yale
Denver			Niagara			Boston U		No Dakota
Mankato			Notre Dame		Alaska			Dartmouth

We have to get rid of the Mami-Alaska pairing and we can do better for attendance.

[B]Manchester (UNH)	Providence (Brown)	Toledo (BGSU)		Grand Rapids (Michigan)[/B]
Boston C		Quinnipiac		Miami			Minnesota
New Hamp		Yale		        W Michigan		St Cloud
Denver			No Dakota		Boston U		Niagara
Dartmouth		Notre Dame		Mankato			Alaska

We could further switch BU and No Dakota but attendance is passable already. Attendance is going to suck everywhere but Manchester anyway, so we should start getting used to it.

The TUC line:

29 Rensselaer 0.5044
30 Holy Cross 0.5022
31 Massachusetts 0.5019
--
32 Brown 0.4950

 

[Priceless]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Based on the Crockpot semifinals

[B]Manchester (UNH)	Providence (Brown)	Toledo (BGSU)	Grand Rapids (Michigan)[/B]
Boston C		Quinnipiac		Miami		Minnesota
New Hamp		St Cloud		W Michigan	Yale
Mankato			Niagara			Denver		No Dakota
Dartmouth		Notre Dame		Boston U	Alaska