Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

I completely agree that locations beyond one seeds are impossible to predict right now. DU typically gets farmed out east and plays an early game in an almost completely empty rink. There could be six WCHA teams that make it which will make the task tough for the committee if that were to really happen.

That empty rink comment, MM. Save it for after the Regions, when we complain about poor attendance, and the NCAA does a bad job with this tourney, etc....

I have a proposal to put up for that. Priceless and Almington will probably slay me for it. It is a "Hockey Regions Should be Double Elimination" proposal. Idea being that hockey is a game given to bounces, to let the lads lose twice in the region before they are out. It takes 2 weeks of Regions to do it though......

 

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

OK, since I have the pairwise running I want to run a small simulator... no model... results have an equal chance. That being said, it still takes a bit to set up.

Yeah, I figured you were working on that....

 

[MagnessMan]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

I have a proposal to put up for that. Priceless and Almington will probably slay me for it. It is a "Hockey Regions Should be Double Elimination" proposal. Idea being that hockey is a game given to bounces, to let the lads lose twice in the region before they are out. It takes 2 weeks of Regions to do it though......

Save this one for another life! The current system is set in stone.

 

[Almington]

That empty rink comment, MM. Save it for after the Regions, when we complain about poor attendance, and the NCAA does a bad job with this tourney, etc....

I have a proposal to put up for that. Priceless and Almington will probably slay me for it. It is a "Hockey Regions Should be Double Elimination" proposal. Idea being that hockey is a game given to bounces, to let the lads lose twice in the region before they are out. It takes 2 weeks of Regions to do it though......

No, because the F4 would also take 5 or 6 games and that would destroy the event nature of the F4.

 

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

No, because the F4 would also take 5 or 6 games and that would destroy the event nature of the F4.

Agreed. You also don't have attendance issues with the F4. No one can touch that.....

Back to the PWR. Can UW make the field without winning the F5?

 

[MagnessMan]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Back to the PWR. Can UW make the field without winning the F5?

Just texting my buddy on that. If Denver wins tomorrow and they beat Denver they might get in. If CC wins I think they'd have to run the table. As well as they are coached and are playing they could do it.

 

[Patman]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

No, because the F4 would also take 5 or 6 games and that would destroy the event nature of the F4.

Length of time precludes double-elimination. Baseball can get away with it because you can play two games in a day.

 

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Just texting my buddy on that. If Denver wins tomorrow and they beat Denver they might get in. If CC wins I think they'd have to run the table. As well as they are coached and are playing they could do it.

Using WCHA only results: CC wins, then the higher seed wins every game except Wisconsin over SC in the semis. UW ends up 16th. So, take Niagara to win AH, QU to win ECAC, RPI to have no more than one more win, and BU not win the HE, and Miami or Notre Dame win the CCHA. All of which is not at all difficult to imagine.

 

[MagnessMan]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Just texting my buddy on that. If Denver wins tomorrow and they beat Denver they might get in. If CC wins I think they'd have to run the table. As well as they are coached and are playing they could do it.

Just realized if CC wins tomorrow they would most likely be the 6th seed and face UND (assuming they beat Tech). Leaving Bucky to face either UNO or MSU. With a win, Bucky would then face the Gophs in the Friday Semi. Knocking them off would land them in the tourney.

 

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Length of time precludes double-elimination. Baseball can get away with it because you can play two games in a day.

Right. The only way you can even think of the idea is if you do it in Regions only. Take 4 sets of 4 teams. First weekend, everyone plays 2 games, so you eliminate 1 team. Next weekend, match 2 pairs at 2 regions, so you have 6 teams there. You carry your losses over. It takes 5 games in 3 days to send 2 teams to the FF. FF is single elimination.

It's too contrived, really, but it's fun to think about. I would do the first weekend at the campus sites of the 4 top seeds, and then only have 2 regionals out for bids.

 

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Just realized if CC wins tomorrow they would most likely be the 6th seed and face UND (assuming they beat Tech). Leaving Bucky to face either UNO or MSU. With a win, Bucky would then face the Gophs in the Friday Semi. Knocking them off would land them in the tourney.

I believe the 4/5 winner plays St Cloud regardless of the result of the other game. The way UW plays Minn in the semi is if ND loses tomorrow. Then UW is 3rd seed, and plays Minny with a win.

 

[MagnessMan]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

It all makes my brain hurt. We'll know in less than 24 hours. My daughter and I are combining a college tour with F5 (her idea ) instead of our annual trip to the FF. Should be fun to be at the last WCHA F5 with all the big guns. Hoping DU can extinguish the p-u-s-s-y cats and punch their ticket.

 

[MeridianStreet]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

After Sat, Mar 16 – PWR courtesy of CHN, as I am writing this in Word, offline, because uscho.com is currently inaccessible:

#1s: QU, Minny, Miami, BC
#2s: Yale, Lowell, UNH, NoDak
#3s: NoDame, Denver, SCSU, Mankato
#4s: Niagara, WMU, Union, RPI

Prov: QU (1), NoDak (8), NoDame (9), Can’t face RPI, Union, so I put WMU (14)

Rapids: Minny (2), Lowell (6 – UNH goes to Manchester), Denver (10), RPI (16)

Toledo: Miami (3), Yale (5), SCSU (11), Niagara (13 attendance)

Manchester: BC (4), UNH (7 - host), Mankato (12), Union (15)

The 3 WCHA teams who are #3 seeds are arbitrary. Put them wherever you want. It makes no difference, and they all have the same # of comparison wins, too.

One could swap the NoDak/NoDame game for the Lowell/Denver game. It would not seem right to put Yale at Providence, as they are the highest #2 seed.

Other things to note:
9 games Sunday night. Both AHA teams need to win. In CCHA, FSU, OSU, MSU all are playing for the continuation of their seasons. In ECAC, Cornell, Brown, and I believe RPI all must win, although RPI might have hope without a win if other things break well next weekend. In HE, Providence must win, UNH is likely safe, but could fall as far as to a #4 seed if they lose. In WCHA, Omaha, CC and Tech are playing for their lives. Mankato could also fall to a 4 with a loss, as could Denver, and NoDak is safe and likely no lower than a 3.

TUC Cliff:
I am not sure, but I think that since no one close to the Cliff can now lose twice, that the present cutoff is the final cutoff. That is, barring Mercyhurst, Canisius, MTU or MSU going all the way to win their conference, and thus crossing the line upwards.
If I am correct, it will become a little easier to forsee the possibilities now, because there will be no TUC surprises.

Michigan looked very strong in sweeping Western Michigan and some are speculating they will win the CCHA championship in Detroit next weekend. If that happens do they go in as #16 and just replace the current #16 seed?

 

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Michigan looked very strong in sweeping Western Michigan and some are speculating they will win the CCHA championship in Detroit next weekend. If that happens do they go in as #16 and just replace the current #16 seed?

Their RPI is now above .5000, so you see them on the PWR lists. If they win in Detroit, automatic bid to the field. Overall seed depends on where among the 16 teams they end up. Right now, for example, Mich Tech still has a chance to win the WCHA. If that happened, they would be below Michigan, so Mich would be 15, and Tech 16.

In these cases, yes, it is the last teams, the 15 and 16 in the PWR who lose their place. The rule is:
1) Conf champs all qualify
2) Then, at-large from the PWR list to make a field of 16
3) Then, seed by PWR among those 16 teams
4) Then, committee puts together the brackets

 

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

CONFESSION::

I was wrong about the current TUC line. It turns out that both Connecticut and Ohio State are still subject to falling back off the cliff. And, in fact, any team with crucial TUC games against OSU could be sweating bullets all the way to Saturday afternoon, because if they lose tonight, their RPI goes to .4999. Likewise, for Connecticut, in the AH playoffs, if it goes something like: HC beats Mercyhurst today, HC and Niagara win the semis (Ct losing), then Connecticut's TUC status will depend on whether Holy Cross or Niagara win the final. Also, Mercyhurst winning out makes them a TUC.

 

[MeridianStreet]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

So, Western Michigan, which less than a month ago looked like a #2 seed is now facing the possibility of missing the NCAA tournament. They are now #14 so I am assuming that depending on the games between today and next Sunday, even though they are not playing - they could still drop a notch or two putting them at risk?

No team in the CCHA wanted to play Michigan in the 1st or 2nd round. Miami and Notre dame dodged that bullet. WMU did not.

 

[Priceless]

CONFESSION::

I was wrong about the current TUC line. It turns out that both Connecticut and Ohio State are still subject to falling back off the cliff. And, in fact, any team with crucial TUC games against OSU could be sweating bullets all the way to Saturday afternoon, because if they lose tonight, their RPI goes to .4999. Likewise, for Connecticut, in the AH playoffs, if it goes something like: HC beats Mercyhurst today, HC and Niagara win the semis (Ct losing), then Connecticut's TUC status will depend on whether Holy Cross or Niagara win the final. Also, Mercyhurst winning out makes them a TUC.

Mistakes are common when you're dealing with so many moving targets, which is why I so often say "I think"

I won't get home until about 930 tonight and the YATC sites will come on by midnight so the guesswork will be removed - except for that pesky part about picking games. Depending on how exhausted I am I'll start running scenarios tonight or tomorrow morning. I expect I'll be able to update the list of teams that have clinched a spot by then, if Numbers hasn't already done so.

 

[JimDahl]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

I won't get home until about 930 tonight and the YATC sites will come on by midnight so the guesswork will be removed - except for that pesky part about picking games. Depending on how exhausted I am I'll start running scenarios tonight or tomorrow morning. I expect I'll be able to update the list of teams that have clinched a spot by then, if Numbers hasn't already done so.

As always, I'll also post the full table of all remaining possibilities tomorrow morning; I don't think I'll do it tonight with a game at 7MT. Plus, by morning you guys will have covered enough of the range with the YATC calculators to give me some confidence in the results

 

[fairbanks hockey puck]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology

Any scenario that Alaska Fairbanks moves up from current #17 ranking..

 

[Priceless]

As always, I'll also post the full table of all remaining possibilities tomorrow morning; I don't think I'll do it tonight with a game at 7MT. Plus, by morning you guys will have covered enough of the range with the YATC calculators to give me some confidence in the results

Love to hear it!

As for Alaska, I was just wondering about that. I can't do much on my tablet in the way of running scenarios but just eyeballing their comparisons they can move up if things break right. The key is keeping Michigan as a TUC, and hoping other bubble teams lose. I can get them to 17 comparisons won which would put them 15th.