Patman
Rodent of Unusual Size
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition
differnce between rankings and power rankings... the word "power"
differnce between rankings and power rankings... the word "power"
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Rtn2GoldCountry
New member
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition
So can I buy my tickets to the West Regional in Grand Rapids now, or is there still a chance the Gophers could end up elsewhere?
So can I buy my tickets to the West Regional in Grand Rapids now, or is there still a chance the Gophers could end up elsewhere?
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition
After Sat, Mar 16 – PWR courtesy of CHN, as I am writing this in Word, offline, because uscho.com is currently inaccessible:
#1s: QU, Minny, Miami, BC
#2s: Yale, Lowell, UNH, NoDak
#3s: NoDame, Denver, SCSU, Mankato
#4s: Niagara, WMU, Union, RPI
Prov: QU (1), NoDak (8), NoDame (9), Can’t face RPI, Union, so I put WMU (14)
Rapids: Minny (2), Lowell (6 – UNH goes to Manchester), Denver (10), RPI (16)
Toledo: Miami (3), Yale (5), SCSU (11), Niagara (13 attendance)
Manchester: BC (4), UNH (7 - host), Mankato (12), Union (15)
The 3 WCHA teams who are #3 seeds are arbitrary. Put them wherever you want. It makes no difference, and they all have the same # of comparison wins, too.
One could swap the NoDak/NoDame game for the Lowell/Denver game. It would not seem right to put Yale at Providence, as they are the highest #2 seed.
Other things to note:
9 games Sunday night. Both AHA teams need to win. In CCHA, FSU, OSU, MSU all are playing for the continuation of their seasons. In ECAC, Cornell, Brown, and I believe RPI all must win, although RPI might have hope without a win if other things break well next weekend. In HE, Providence must win, UNH is likely safe, but could fall as far as to a #4 seed if they lose. In WCHA, Omaha, CC and Tech are playing for their lives. Mankato could also fall to a 4 with a loss, as could Denver, and NoDak is safe and likely no lower than a 3.
TUC Cliff:
I am not sure, but I think that since no one close to the Cliff can now lose twice, that the present cutoff is the final cutoff. That is, barring Mercyhurst, Canisius, MTU or MSU going all the way to win their conference, and thus crossing the line upwards.
If I am correct, it will become a little easier to forsee the possibilities now, because there will be no TUC surprises.
After Sat, Mar 16 – PWR courtesy of CHN, as I am writing this in Word, offline, because uscho.com is currently inaccessible:
#1s: QU, Minny, Miami, BC
#2s: Yale, Lowell, UNH, NoDak
#3s: NoDame, Denver, SCSU, Mankato
#4s: Niagara, WMU, Union, RPI
Prov: QU (1), NoDak (8), NoDame (9), Can’t face RPI, Union, so I put WMU (14)
Rapids: Minny (2), Lowell (6 – UNH goes to Manchester), Denver (10), RPI (16)
Toledo: Miami (3), Yale (5), SCSU (11), Niagara (13 attendance)
Manchester: BC (4), UNH (7 - host), Mankato (12), Union (15)
The 3 WCHA teams who are #3 seeds are arbitrary. Put them wherever you want. It makes no difference, and they all have the same # of comparison wins, too.
One could swap the NoDak/NoDame game for the Lowell/Denver game. It would not seem right to put Yale at Providence, as they are the highest #2 seed.
Other things to note:
9 games Sunday night. Both AHA teams need to win. In CCHA, FSU, OSU, MSU all are playing for the continuation of their seasons. In ECAC, Cornell, Brown, and I believe RPI all must win, although RPI might have hope without a win if other things break well next weekend. In HE, Providence must win, UNH is likely safe, but could fall as far as to a #4 seed if they lose. In WCHA, Omaha, CC and Tech are playing for their lives. Mankato could also fall to a 4 with a loss, as could Denver, and NoDak is safe and likely no lower than a 3.
TUC Cliff:
I am not sure, but I think that since no one close to the Cliff can now lose twice, that the present cutoff is the final cutoff. That is, barring Mercyhurst, Canisius, MTU or MSU going all the way to win their conference, and thus crossing the line upwards.
If I am correct, it will become a little easier to forsee the possibilities now, because there will be no TUC surprises.
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P
Priceless
Guest
There is a slim chance they could get sent to Manchester (a flight is a flight) but I don't think it will happen. It looks like it will be Quinnipiac in Providence, Miami in Toledo and the Gophers in Grand Rapids. The final #1 seed would be in Manchester. The exception would be if UNH dropped to a 4-seed and prevented a Hockey East #1 from being slotted in Manchester. In that case you would likely see the Gophers head east. If New Hampshire wins tomorrow that should guarantee they remain above a 4-seed and that puts the 4th #1 in Manchester.
QUAlum2004
Well-known member
I think UNH is an NCAA lock.
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition
To further this discussion, Priceless, I don't think I can get the Gophers lower than #2 overall. So, let's say UNH is a 4. Then, if UML or BC is a one, UML/BC can't be in Manchester. In that case, the committee can move either Minny or Miami. You are operating on the assumption Miami stays in Toledo for attendance. The committee could also say "Minnesota is higher ranked, and earned the closer slot, per the rules, so Miami has to go east." To put Minny in Manchester you would have to say "A flight is a flight." But, that also violates the "Top - down #1s play as close to home as possible." So, even if UNH is a 4, it's still a toss up in my mind between Minny and Miami going east.
To further this discussion, Priceless, I don't think I can get the Gophers lower than #2 overall. So, let's say UNH is a 4. Then, if UML or BC is a one, UML/BC can't be in Manchester. In that case, the committee can move either Minny or Miami. You are operating on the assumption Miami stays in Toledo for attendance. The committee could also say "Minnesota is higher ranked, and earned the closer slot, per the rules, so Miami has to go east." To put Minny in Manchester you would have to say "A flight is a flight." But, that also violates the "Top - down #1s play as close to home as possible." So, even if UNH is a 4, it's still a toss up in my mind between Minny and Miami going east.
fairbanks hockey puck
Registered User
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition
Not that it matters, but Alaska went from 25 this morning to 17 tonight...How much trouble, if any, is Western Michigan in??
Not that it matters, but Alaska went from 25 this morning to 17 tonight...How much trouble, if any, is Western Michigan in??
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition
All but. I mean not quite. Without running the scenarios, they have the disadvantage that they could lose 2 in Atlantic City. And, those game could be to Union and RPI. Their comparison wins with Lowell, UNH, NoDame, DU, SCSU, and Mankato are all dependent on RPI, where 2 losses leave them vulnerable, especially when DU and Mankato have 4 games left potentially. Same goes for Wisconsin. And, if Niagara wins AHA, and Yale has a loss next week, they can lose that, too.
Sorry, not yet. But, if DU and Mankato lose tomorrow, then I think so.
All but. I mean not quite. Without running the scenarios, they have the disadvantage that they could lose 2 in Atlantic City. And, those game could be to Union and RPI. Their comparison wins with Lowell, UNH, NoDame, DU, SCSU, and Mankato are all dependent on RPI, where 2 losses leave them vulnerable, especially when DU and Mankato have 4 games left potentially. Same goes for Wisconsin. And, if Niagara wins AHA, and Yale has a loss next week, they can lose that, too.
Sorry, not yet. But, if DU and Mankato lose tomorrow, then I think so.
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition
Western only has 4 comparisons that they could lose: Un, RPI, Corn, BU. The others are insulated for them by advantage in TUC and ComOpp. To their good fortune, Un, RPI and Corn can't all excel in the next 3 game days. For this reason, they do not appear to be in too much trouble. A win against Michigan would have really helped.
Western only has 4 comparisons that they could lose: Un, RPI, Corn, BU. The others are insulated for them by advantage in TUC and ComOpp. To their good fortune, Un, RPI and Corn can't all excel in the next 3 game days. For this reason, they do not appear to be in too much trouble. A win against Michigan would have really helped.
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition
The difference from Hamden to Providence and Hamden to Manchester is only about 50 miles. Wouldn't it just be as simple to send Quinnipiac to Manchester if a Hockey East team gets the final #1 seed and UNH falls to a #4 seed? It's not like you're sending them across the country.
The difference from Hamden to Providence and Hamden to Manchester is only about 50 miles. Wouldn't it just be as simple to send Quinnipiac to Manchester if a Hockey East team gets the final #1 seed and UNH falls to a #4 seed? It's not like you're sending them across the country.
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition
Good point, Scott. However, in that case, QU is the overall #1, and you would be sentencing them to a game against the top#4 in the #4s regional that they are hosting. It's a de facto road game. Unlikely that the committee would do that to the overall #1.
Good point, Scott. However, in that case, QU is the overall #1, and you would be sentencing them to a game against the top#4 in the #4s regional that they are hosting. It's a de facto road game. Unlikely that the committee would do that to the overall #1.
MagnessMan
D-1 Hockey Nut
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition
UNH is the host school of the Manchester Regional--the committee will build the bracket around them.
UNH is the host school of the Manchester Regional--the committee will build the bracket around them.
MagnessMan
D-1 Hockey Nut
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition
I assume if DU falls to CC tomorrow they would end up a 4 seed in Manchester or Providence. That sound right?
I assume if DU falls to CC tomorrow they would end up a 4 seed in Manchester or Providence. That sound right?
MagnessMan
D-1 Hockey Nut
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition
They re-seed the six teams using regular season records. The one and two (SCSU and the Gophs) get a bye to the Semis.
They re-seed the six teams using regular season records. The one and two (SCSU and the Gophs) get a bye to the Semis.
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition
They could well end up a 4 seed. Even then, odds are about 1/3 of going east (DU as a 4 is not going where Minny is). But, maybe a low 3 also. It depends: Does Niagara lose along the way? Does Mankato win or lose tomorrow? How far does CC or Wisconsin or BU go before they lose? Or Union or RPI? All these things combine and enter in.
This is why it has been said that at this point, there is no reason to guess where a team is going, except for the top teams - QU, Minny, Miami in this case. Everything else could change at the result of the last game - CCHA Final. The best anyone can do right now is a rough estimate of which seed a team may end up as : for example, if DU loses, are they a 3 or a 4??
They could well end up a 4 seed. Even then, odds are about 1/3 of going east (DU as a 4 is not going where Minny is). But, maybe a low 3 also. It depends: Does Niagara lose along the way? Does Mankato win or lose tomorrow? How far does CC or Wisconsin or BU go before they lose? Or Union or RPI? All these things combine and enter in.
This is why it has been said that at this point, there is no reason to guess where a team is going, except for the top teams - QU, Minny, Miami in this case. Everything else could change at the result of the last game - CCHA Final. The best anyone can do right now is a rough estimate of which seed a team may end up as : for example, if DU loses, are they a 3 or a 4??
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition
A little more, Patman: The bracket is fixed. 4/5 plays St Cloud. 3/6 plays Minnesota. For attendance's sake, the Friday night game is Minnesota's. The thought has been: It isn't fair to force a team to play Thursday night, and then Friday afternoon against a rested opponent. So, afternoon winner plays Friday afternoon, regardless or who it is, etc.
MagnessMan
D-1 Hockey Nut
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition
I completely agree that locations beyond one seeds are impossible to predict right now. DU typically gets farmed out east and plays an early game in an almost completely empty rink. There could be six WCHA teams that make it which will make the task tough for the committee if that were to really happen.
I completely agree that locations beyond one seeds are impossible to predict right now. DU typically gets farmed out east and plays an early game in an almost completely empty rink. There could be six WCHA teams that make it which will make the task tough for the committee if that were to really happen.
Patman
Rodent of Unusual Size
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition
OK, since I have the pairwise running I want to run a small simulator... no model... results have an equal chance. That being said, it still takes a bit to set up.
OK, since I have the pairwise running I want to run a small simulator... no model... results have an equal chance. That being said, it still takes a bit to set up.
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