Re: Official Oswego State 2014-2015 Thread...LETS FINISH THE JOB!!!!!
This game against Brockport is going to be pretty important. A win means Oswego is guaranteed at least #2 in the SUNYAC playoffs and gets a first round bye and at least one home playoff game. Then we can go into Geneseo the next day and know that we don't have to worry about Geneseo passing us since it's mathematically impossible. And on top of that, we'll know all we need is a tie against Genny and Plattsburgh (and a win against Potsdam) to give us the #1 spot in the SUNYAC.
Basically, let's look at a couple example scenarios. Let's say Oswego beats Brockport AND Geneseo AND Potsdam. That's 6 more points, assuming Plattsburgh beats Cortland, then Oswego has a 27-26 point lead in the SUNYAC meaning Plattsburgh would need to beat Oswego to win. Not just tie. Beat. But If Oswego beats Brockport and Potsdam, but only ties Geneseo, then Oswego would be 26-26 against Plattsburgh. But a tie would still go to Oswego, since Oswego has the better H2H record, so again, Plattsburgh would need to win.
But in the end, Oswego doesn't have any reasonable path to the #1 spot without at least tying Plattsburgh. Sure, we could lose to Plattsburgh and if Plattsburgh ties or loses to Cortland we would still have a shot. But I don't believe Plattsburgh will lose to Cortland. So that's simply not realistic.
But let's say Oswego DOES beat Plattsburgh. How much breathing room does that give us? That would mean Plattsburgh would end the season at 26 points, assuming they beat Cortland. Oswego would just need 1 win and 1 tie (or 3 ties) out of our other 3 games, and we would win the tie-breaker for the #1 spot.
Let's make sure we aren't looking past Brockport though. In our last two games against Brockport, we've lost and tied them. In the tie, we outshot them 45-28, yet the score was 4-4. In the loss, we outshot them 47-24, yet the score was 3-2. Their goalies have a habit of getting hot when we play them. Let's not let that happen, eh?
