Obama XXII: Occupy the White House

[Tundra]

Re: Obama XXII: Occupy the White House

Does porn count?

(I guess only if you learn something.)

I guess porn would be in the video category (movies, flash, music etc..). And that has been the biggest bandwidth hog + cellphone and data.

Remember the bandwidth glut of 2001 and the crash of the optic fiber companies as they couldn't connect "the last mile" to the customers. Blocked by both local phone and cable companies from using their lines.

Now we got metering by usage and our average speed hasn't gone up and our cost has gone up (flat) since 2001. And we got METERING by both telco and cable companies to relieve the congestion supposedly.

http://news.cnet.com/Is-fiber-optic-construction-creating-overkill/2100-1033_3-268859.html

June 21, 2001 4:20 PM PDT
Is fiber-optic construction creating overkill?

So the question remains: Will the carriers use all the fiber currently installed underground? Davenport's Johnstone believes that will not happen for at least another 10 years--if ever

"You could do all the world's long-distance with two or three strands of fiber, and there's thousands of strands in the ground" now, Matulich said.

Many industry observers believe that less than 5 percent of the fiber put in the ground is in use. Future applications and new Internet users may one day fill these networks, but for now most experts say they will handle only a fraction of their capacity.

Making matters worse for carriers, the lack of network traffic has forced them to cut prices for use of their networks.

According to RateXchange, an electronic broker that helps carriers trade bandwidth capacity, a connection running at 155 megabits per second from Los Angeles to New York cost about $45,000 a month last October. That price fell to $35,000 in March and is expected to slip to $2,450 in January 2002.

 

[Old Pio]

Re: Obama XXII: Occupy the White House

Every developed economy transitions to services and away from manufacturing. It'll happen in China as well (eventually). It's no different than industrialization replacing agriculture jobs.

As far as that economist predicting China will be tripling our economic output by 2040 (#27), I'd take that bet every day and twice on Sunday. There is no ****ing way their economy will grow that quickly for that length of time. Their GDP would have to hit somewhere around $45T-$50T while ours remains unchanged. If the US economy has any growth at all in that time (and it will), you'll have to add trillions more to their output.

I'm not so sure I'd bet on India passing us by 2050, either. They've got widespread corruption problems over there, and it's already stifling investment.

Americans NEED something to worry about. Americans LIKE to worry. Remember when the Japanese were going to clean our clocks? That they were going to bury us with their semi-conductors? That they were buying up all the important real estate in America? That it was simply a matter of time before we'd all have to learn Japanese? Etc, etc. Don't hear much of that twaddle these days, do you?

Americans love health scares, too. Swine flu. SARS, whatever. South Park did an espisode on SARS where the boys discover the "cure": aspirin, Campbell's chicken noodle soup and ginger ale.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Obama XXII: Occupy the White House

Every developed economy transitions to services and away from manufacturing. It'll happen in China as well (eventually). It's no different than industrialization replacing agriculture jobs.

As far as that economist predicting China will be tripling our economic output by 2040 (#27), I'd take that bet every day and twice on Sunday. There is no ****ing way their economy will grow that quickly for that length of time. Their GDP would have to hit somewhere around $45T-$50T while ours remains unchanged. If the US economy has any growth at all in that time (and it will), you'll have to add trillions more to their output.

I'm not so sure I'd bet on India passing us by 2050, either. They've got widespread corruption problems over there, and it's already stifling investment.

Fantastic post.

 

[LynahFan]

Re: Obama XXII: Occupy the White House

Every developed economy transitions to services and away from manufacturing. It'll happen in China as well (eventually). It's no different than industrialization replacing agriculture jobs.

As far as that economist predicting China will be tripling our economic output by 2040 (#27), I'd take that bet every day and twice on Sunday. There is no ****ing way their economy will grow that quickly for that length of time. Their GDP would have to hit somewhere around $45T-$50T while ours remains unchanged. If the US economy has any growth at all in that time (and it will), you'll have to add trillions more to their output.

I'm not so sure I'd bet on India passing us by 2050, either. They've got widespread corruption problems over there, and it's already stifling investment.

Now that I've traveled around China and worked with 5 different companies (all in the aerospace sector), I'm not at all worried about China. Their technology is antiquated, but even worse, their management is just non-existent. Companies over there are not used to making any decisions for themselves - they are simply told what to do, and they do it. That's a great way to run a manufacturing floor (which is basically what China is to the West right now), but it's no way to run a business. They literally do not know how much any of their products cost to manufacture or what the purchase price of their raw materials is. They put in an "order" with the government, which tells another company to produce the item, and it just shows up on their doorstep. No money ever changes hands, so they have no clue if they specified and ordered a $5,000 pump or a $5,000,000 pump. We did some *incredibly* rough trade studies for them where we totaled up the costs of choosing one component over another and they were astounded - you would have thought we cured cancer.

China doesn't bother me any more.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Obama XXII: Occupy the White House

So the question remains: Will the carriers use all the fiber currently installed underground? Davenport's Johnstone believes that will not happen for at least another 10 years--if ever

"You could do all the world's long-distance with two or three strands of fiber, and there's thousands of strands in the ground" now, Matulich said.

Many industry observers believe that less than 5 percent of the fiber put in the ground is in use. Future applications and new Internet users may one day fill these networks, but for now most experts say they will handle only a fraction of their capacity.

“640K ought to be enough for anybody.”

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Obama XXII: Occupy the White House

Now that I've traveled around China and worked with 5 different companies (all in the aerospace sector), I'm not at all worried about China. Their technology is antiquated, but even worse, their management is just non-existent. Companies over there are not used to making any decisions for themselves - they are simply told what to do, and they do it. That's a great way to run a manufacturing floor (which is basically what China is to the West right now), but it's no way to run a business. They literally do not know how much any of their products cost to manufacture or what the purchase price of their raw materials is. They put in an "order" with the government, which tells another company to produce the item, and it just shows up on their doorstep. No money ever changes hands, so they have no clue if they specified and ordered a $5,000 pump or a $5,000,000 pump. We did some *incredibly* rough trade studies for them where we totaled up the costs of choosing one component over another and they were astounded - you would have thought we cured cancer.

China doesn't bother me any more.

Completely agree. The company I work for uses US project managers for ALL projects in China. They simply cannot make decisions and when they do, they wind up making the wrong one.

 

[Old Pio]

Re: Obama XXII: Occupy the White House

Completely agree. The company I work for uses US project managers for ALL projects in China. They simply cannot make decisions and when they do, they wind up making the wrong one.

Thank you both for your perspectives. In the "glory" days of the Soviet Union, it was common practice for workers to work like h*ll to meet their daily quota, then spend the rest of the day slurping vodka. And the quality of what they produced, stunk.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Obama XXII: Occupy the White House

China will be an economic superpower until, and ONLY until, the price of their labor plus the cost of transportation and importing equals the cost of producing it elsewhere. The moment that transition occurs will be the first step in bringing China back to the real world.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Obama XXII: Occupy the White House

China will be an economic superpower until, and ONLY until, the price of their labor plus the cost of transportation and importing equals the cost of producing it elsewhere. The moment that transition occurs will be the first step in bringing China back to the real world.

Well, there are two ways of having the labor rate lines cross. We seem to be opting for the second one.

 

[Old Pio]

Re: Obama XXII: Occupy the White House

Looks like the ragheads can't decide WHAT they're gonna do in the Straight. Perhaps they should consult with Kim Jong Aun, who issued a threat to S. Korea within hours of being named "the big dude with the full plate."

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/12/31/iran-backs-off-threat-to-close-strait-hormuz/

A number of years ago there was a lot of agita in the chattering class about a new Soviet warship: the Kirov class cruiser. Tom Clancy wrote an Op-Ed where he talked to the skipper of an LA class sub. The guy said: "When I see a Kirov, I see a Navy Cross waiting to happen." Exactly. I should think any US skipper in the Straight would love to get a shot at those diesel pigs in Iran's "navy." Suicidal Islamic enthusiasm is no substitute for technology and training.

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: Obama XXII: Occupy the White House

China will be an economic superpower until, and ONLY until, the price of their labor plus the cost of transportation and importing equals the cost of producing it elsewhere.

Then they'll be stuck with an internal market the size of North America and Europe combined. For the US, its all about innovation...business and technology.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Obama XXII: Occupy the White House

Then they'll be stuck with an internal market the size of North America and Europe combined. For the US, its all about innovation...business and technology.

You really think that internal market is going to be sustained without the exports? I don't. They need the exports. They NEED to be the cheapest labor on earth.

 

[Bakunin]

Re: Obama XXII: Occupy the White House

You really think that internal market is going to be sustained without the exports? I don't. They need the exports. They NEED to be the cheapest labor on earth.

I don't believe it's that simple, nor do I believe they are providing the cheapest labor on earth (I think Thailand is undercutting them now and has been for awhile). China isn't just filled with people working for a couple bucks an hour producing lead-tainted toys for shipment to the US, after all.

As far as their domestic market is concerned, there is ample room for growth. I have read that their consumer spending equals less than half their GDP. With a billion-plus consumers and a relatively high savings rate, there is considerable untapped potential for spending and growth when and if their priorities change.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Obama XXII: Occupy the White House

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012...egulation-cordray-legal-idUSTRE80328G20120105

 

[Kepler]

Re: Obama XXII: Occupy the White House

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012...egulation-cordray-legal-idUSTRE80328G20120105

It sounds like if he had really wanted to play hardball he could've filled all the appointments they've been stalling.

Presidents have long had the power to make appointments to fill administration positions whenever Congress is adjourned for more than three days of recess. Yet in the current Congress, Republicans have been intentionally organizing “pro forma” sessions during their breaks so as to avoid recesses from technically taking place. Congress isn’t in town, but Obama can’t make recess appointments either.

Yesterday, a loophole briefly arose. As TPM’s Brian Beutler reported, the 112th Congress was technically switching between sessions, which meant there was a brief flurry of seconds when Congress wasn’t technically in session and Obama could’ve rushed to appoint Cordray — or fill any other vacancies. A Congressional Research Service brief (PDF) notes that Teddy Roosevelt did this way back in 1903, filling 160 recess appointments, mostly military officers, in a few minutes’ time.

Obama didn’t take advantage of that loophole.

So he didn't use a procedural trick to get around the procedural trick they were using. Instead he just called them on their procedural trick and said it wasn't relevant. I assume the Republicans will challenge it in court, and if the Court follows precedent, they will lose.

 

[Old Pio]

Re: Obama XXII: Occupy the White House

The 4th best president in history, smartest guy in any room, who is fluent in "Austrian," shouldn't be dissuaded from violatiing the Constitution in furtherance of his divine right to re-election. To hold otherwise would be racist (don't EVER forget racist).

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Obama XXII: Occupy the White House

if the Court follows precedent, they will lose[/URL].

Then why are Mitch and the Bone Man screaming "unprecedented" at the top of their lungs?

 

[Old Pio]

Re: Obama XXII: Occupy the White House

The Emily Litella administration is shouting "never mind" at the top of its lungs. Never mind the previous arguments before the Supreme Court about what constitutes a "recess." And never mind the speeches in the Senate on this same topic, either. The smartest president in all 57 states essentially arguing here: "When I do it, it's different."

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Obama XXII: Occupy the White House

Someone can't read the article apparently.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Obama XXII: Occupy the White House

Then why are Mitch and the Bone Man screaming "unprecedented" at the top of their lungs?

For the same reason they play politics with appointments.

I don't like that Obama did it one bit, but I also have sympathy that the current GOP is being obstructionist for its own sake. The lesson here is that both sides can either make compromises to keep the peace and get the people's business done, or both sides can use obscure tactics to win Pyrrhic victories and deepen the distrust. After all, whatever President X can do to Congress Y, or vice-versa, President Y can do to Congress X, or vice-versa.