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Notre Dame Hockey 2014-15: The year of the Freshman

Re: Notre Dame Hockey 2014-15: The year of the Freshman

Data shows that playing at home increases your chance of winning by 5-10% and the new PWR essentially gives you a 20% penalty for playing at home. Meaning in the current setup is already overly incentivizing playing road games by 200-400%, I doubt any increase in that 20% will be coming soon (or ever).


While a team may have an overall 5-10% better chance of winning at home versus the road when all games are calculated, the kinds of teams that make up the buy games are the bottom feeders of the weaker conferences and as such are even more likely to be easy wins.

In NCAA basketball the road win/home loss difference is even greater, 1.4/0.6, although the use of RPI in selecting and seeding the field for that tournament has largely been overstated, unlike in hockey, where the RPI has become outsized in it's importance in who gets in and who they play.

I wish the NCAA would see as one if its roles a greater need to ensure as level a playing field as possible among teams in the same division, at least when it comes to criteria for selecting participants in a championship tournament. There is nothing Major League Baseball can do to keep the Yankees from making more money on ticket sales and broadcast revenue than the Pirates make (and little they SHOULD do IMO) but they don't let the Yankees play 102 games in the Bronx and only 60 on the road. If teams like Notre Dame (and whoever else) insist upon playing virtually all of their so-called open dates at home against horrible competition, then the NCAA should do even more to ensure it doesn't unfairly advantage them. I hate that Notre Dame jumped on that bandwagon the first chance they got. In the past teams used such scheduling to an even far greater advantage, and this was the reason for the changes in the first place. I'd be in favor of an even greater change in how the RPI is figured, especially when it comes to non-conference games. I do agree that no more changes are likely soon or even ever.
 
Re: Notre Dame Hockey 2014-15: The year of the Freshman

I've always thought it a little strange since I started following college hockey. It seems that the teams would simply do what they do in football (I know, football in a hockey forum. shoot me). But teams would ask, Why should we play a big east school? why should we play boise state? we have nothing to gain and everything to lose.

Likewise, you would think that ND would simply schedule a hard OCC schedule. A split with North Dakota would do more than a sweep of say, Niagara. I like that ND actually schedules some games with at least 1 team from each conference. If you are going to play an AH team, then play Robert morris. maybe Mercyhurst lately. But if HE simply plays NHCH, with a little ECAC and Big10 then it makes it hard for the little guys to move up in the rpi. But I would think that a schedule where I'm playing North Dakota, Minnesota, Denver, Cornell. something along those lines would do me really well. I wouldn't have to sweep all the time, I could sweep one series and split the rest and do ok.

I could understand that ND has chosen to go for the money and home games over a better rpi/pairwise etc The truth is that the LSSU and Niagara series were the ends of fall break.... attendance was really low. They couldn't have made that much money. Should have done a road series there against a better opponent.
 
Re: Notre Dame Hockey 2014-15: The year of the Freshman

While a team may have an overall 5-10% better chance of winning at home versus the road when all games are calculated, the kinds of teams that make up the buy games are the bottom feeders of the weaker conferences and as such are even more likely to be easy wins.

Correct, but that part is accounted for by being penalized for in the two strength of schedule component (OW% and OOW%). Playing them at home also penalizes ND in their own winning% component.

I do agree that no more changes are likely soon or even ever.

They are constantly tinkering with the formula, so more changes are surely on the way, I just doubt an increase in the home/away disparity is one of them.
 
Re: Notre Dame Hockey 2014-15: The year of the Freshman

If any ND season ticket holders are NOT going to use their regional tix, they should return them to the University or sell them to one of the coming team's fans. Some of them are having a hard time getting tickets (each school is only allotted 400 tickets), so let's be fair to the fans.
 
Re: Notre Dame Hockey 2014-15: The year of the Freshman


yea, that actually does suck. Makes me wonder if Lucia is going too. He was actually my favorite player for a long time, but at least we don't have to watch him skate through 5 defenders only to pull back and not take a shot. As it was though, they weren't losing a ton of seniors and could have started working for something bigger next year.
 
Re: Notre Dame Hockey 2014-15: The year of the Freshman

yea, that actually does suck. Makes me wonder if Lucia is going too. He was actually my favorite player for a long time, but at least we don't have to watch him skate through 5 defenders only to pull back and not take a shot. As it was though, they weren't losing a ton of seniors and could have started working for something bigger next year.

Jackson has made public comments that he thinks Lucia is coming back. My guess is he isn't going to go out on a limb like that unless he is pretty d am n sure a player isn't leaving early.

He also said scouts for the Hawks claimed that Hinostroza was both ready and NOT ready to come out. They changed their tune from one week to the next. In my opinion it isn't a matter of being ready, it is a matter of size. Hinostroza has none and the NHL covets size as much as anything. Is his skill set dynamic enough to make up for the fact that virtually everyone he will be going up against will be substantially bigger? I guess we'll know in a year or two.

He also envisioned Malmquist playing a year in the USHL to mature physically (which I had expected all along) but now even that is up in the air. He is smaller than Hinostroza. If he comes next season he'll need an entire year to build some muscle/weight to be able to compete with players who are finished growing. Jackson almost sounded like he was resigned to the fact he will be here next year and will struggle as a result. Of course that does give him another built in excuse... While still too early to predict, next year will probably make this year look like a stunning success. The only question I have left anymore is how long the program treads water before the university realizes the hockey program should be doing much better.
 
Re: Notre Dame Hockey 2014-15: The year of the Freshman

He also envisioned Malmquist playing a year in the USHL to mature physically (which I had expected all along) but now even that is up in the air. He is smaller than Hinostroza. If he comes next season he'll need an entire year to build some muscle/weight to be able to compete with players who are finished growing. Jackson almost sounded like he was resigned to the fact he will be here next year and will struggle as a result. Of course that does give him another built in excuse... While still too early to predict, next year will probably make this year look like a stunning success. The only question I have left anymore is how long the program treads water before the university realizes the hockey program should be doing much better.

I wondered how the class coming in was, haven't look in a while. I hope next year isn't worse. I was sort of hoping Cal would save a couple of games for us and we'd have 4-5 more wins, even if we didn't deserve them. And some like Gross, Evans, maybe hurley can know what to expect and have more production. Sigh, if we only win about 10 games it would totally suck.
 
Re: Notre Dame Hockey 2014-15: The year of the Freshman

Jackson has made public comments that he thinks Lucia is coming back. My guess is he isn't going to go out on a limb like that unless he is pretty d am n sure a player isn't leaving early.

Obviously money is not a concern for the family. It would be coup to get a 2nd round draft pick who played an extra year of juniors to compete all four years. Surprised the MN Wild woul not be ready for him in 2015 after being drafted in 2011.
 
Re: Notre Dame Hockey 2014-15: The year of the Freshman

Obviously money is not a concern for the family. It would be coup to get a 2nd round draft pick who played an extra year of juniors to compete all four years. Surprised the MN Wild woul not be ready for him in 2015 after being drafted in 2011.

There are too many holes in his game IMO. He's got the nose for the right place to be to score goals, but too often he can still get muscled out of the spot. He's got a great finishing touch like Anders Lee had, but nowhere near the net front presence or ability in the corners. He's also weak defensively and in transition. I doubt the Wild have buyers remorse, but they are probably content to let him develop as much as possible on Notre Dame's watch.
 
Re: Notre Dame Hockey 2014-15: The year of the Freshman

RPI blog Without a Peer post about Notre Dame http://www.withoutapeer.com/2015/07...tml?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter.


I have no connection to WaP except as a reader.
In the blog it mentions that ND’s Malmquist & RPI’s Nanne were Teammates @ Edina HS. Let me add that in the 2011-12 season, Connor Hurley, Dylan Malmquist (ND) & Lou Nanne, Parker Reno (RPI) were all part of that Edina HS State Championship Team.
 
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