NMU Offseason 2010

[RaceBoarder]

Re: NMU Offseason 2010

Penn State is going varsity... With that news very near to being official, I have been putting a lot of thought into what will become of our Wildcats... As of right now, this definitely is a game changing move in the hockey world... Will we get the dreaded BTHC? Does that destroy the current CCHA and the WCHA? Where does NMU stand in all this? There are many questions, but few answers at this time....

Ever since the program's inception in 1976 we've always been the "little guy" and found a way to make it work... This is no different...

With the BTHC talk, something has been bugging me... Everyone seems to think that all the "little" schools will lose all their money because UM/MSU won't be coming to their rinks anymore... Even with the possible lack of "marquee" home dates, I think NMU can survive... I don't think there will be a tremendous hit at the gate for us...

Everyone theorizes that NMU will start losing money hand over fist by not getting UM/State/tOSU into the BEC... I don't believe that this is a tremendous loss... Usually only one of those schools comes to Marquette each season... That's just 2 of 16-20 home dates... NMU probably draws an average of 2500 - 2700 for a home game.... Yes, attendance spikes to 3800-4000 for Michigan or State, but that is just a small portion of the season attendance... Here's how I break it down:

$655,200 average season gate revenue (18 games X 2600 tickets @ $14 per)
$36,000 per game average ticket revenue
$56,000 for a game with 4000 tickets sold

(**Note"* These are just simple numbers... I understand that ticket revenue is a lot more complex than this, but the principal is the same)

That means that NMU stands to lose ~$20,000/game in reveune by bringing in a "normal" game instead of U of M/State... That means $40,000 in lost revenue by losing the one marquee series... That $40,000 in lost revenue is only about 6% of their total season gate revenue however... While $40k is still $40k, it's just a small portion of the total pie...

Also note that tOSU hasn't exactly been a marquee draw for NMU at home... Attendance is just average for them... What if NMU goes out and brings in an above average draw like a Michigan Tech or UNO? You are now making up some of the lost "Big Ten" revenue...

Overall, I just don't see losing the Big Ten schools as a total loss in revenue for NMU... Those schools aren't driving our season ticket sales as is... The season ticket holders that we currently have truly love the team and aren't purchasing for just a few games on the schedule... I don't see huge drop in season tickets without State/U of M... Season tickets also make up a small portion of the BEC crowd... A vast majority of the people there are walk up consumers... Yes, there is a hit there, but it's only a small portion of the picture... Maybe I'm in the minority, but I just can't see the fatal losses that some are predicting...

The big thing that sticks out in my mind from the BTHC scenario is where will NMU find a conference home?? That's the $64,000 question... This is the area of the most uncertainty right now... The best case scenario for NMU is to simply have PSU join the CCHA... This changes nothing for NMU... They will just continue to be a top 2-5 team in the CCHA...

The hit comes if the BTHC forms... That makes the CCHA a very unstable place to be... Going by what you hear, Western, LSSU, Ferris, and Bowling Green are all going to close shop if the BTHC forms... I'm not sure how much stock to put into that since it's not coming from fans of the programs, but outside sources... What becomes of the CCHA in that scenario? Do they pluck Pennsylvania or NY teams to stay alive? Does it just fold up shop? No one can really be certain of this...

This exact reason is why NMU must be PROACTIVE in this area... Walt and Ken must go out and actively search for a Plan B for NMU... If that's hooking up with the 10 remaining teams of the WCHA, cool... If it's staying with the CCHA, cool... Just do the homework here and don't get blindsided by anything... Give ourselves an out...

Honestly, we are one of the winningest, most prestigious schools on the "Doomed" list, and that just ****es me off... No one is giving this school a chance to survive, and that is BS... We've done more than alot of the WCHA schools like UAA, Tech, BSU, UNO, MSU-M, yet they aren't being tossed around as possibilities to fold up... That's garbage... I really think that our program can keep on in this doomsday scenario... I am not ready to be relegated yet...

So, agree/disagree? What do you think of NMU's chances in all this?

 

[aparch]

Re: NMU Offseason 2010

Take a deep breath.

Then sit down.

This isn't a bad thing... yet.

Until an announcement is made, all Penn State is going to do is say that they're making the move to Division 1. There is only 11 teams in the CCHA, a nice little spot for Penn State to get into the college hockey scene with some good opponents (Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Miami).

After a couple years of dabbling in the CCHA, then they will likely talk about forming a Big Ten Hockey Conference. For what it's worth, I know of no insider information, so this is all a wild-*ss guess. You're looking at an announcement in 2010-11. Building built by 2013 for the 2013-14 season, and (hopefully) 2016-17 at the earliest for a Big10 conference.

Here's the interesting thing that NO one seems to be able to figure out: Will there be an Anti-Big10 conference or not? Let's assume that the WCHA thinks they can go it without forming a super conference to compete.

If the WCHA stands pat, they'll have a nice round number of 10 teams. The CCHA will then be left with 8. Our eight isn't as competitive as the WCHA, and eight is a small number to go with. Maybe the CCHA can interest Robert Morris and Niagara to come over. The CCHA will never woo away a big replacement for Michigan or Michigan State, so pipe dreams of Duluth, Denver, NoDak moving to the CCHA aren't going to happen. By snagging Bobby Mo and Niagara, the CCHA now has two close teams to Penn State which may lead to the chance that the Big10 teams will still swing through the league once or twice a decade; and enough members that they can survive. Dip too low in members, and we face a CHA type death.

Now, if the Anti-Big10 is formed, you lose Miami and Notre Dame to the "Super WCHA". This will absolutely kill the CCHA. No amount of horse trading with the AHA or WCHA will get strong enough competition to bolster the league to remain competitive. We'd become what AHA is to Hockey East.

No matter how you cut it, the CCHA hierarchy goes:
1) Michigan, Michigan State
2) Miami, Notre Dame
3) Everyone else

I love the Wildcats as much as anyone else, but something is wrong when we're the flagship team of a conference (not named GLIAC). Although that would give us an easier route to an autobid to the NCAA's.

Tom Anastos (as much as we hate him) is going to fight like Hell to get Penn State to join the CCHA. And then he's going to fight harder to keep the four Big10 schools (unless the Big10 offers him a job). If Anastos bails, may the Lord have mercy on the CCHA.


As for our 'Cats; we're in a better position compared most of the CCHA. Obviously we're of some relevance to the hockey world (contrary to most of the WCHA posters beliefs on this board) if NMU was the ONLY team courted by the WCHA during their expansion (Bemidji lobbied themselves in, UNO was approached only after we said no because they lobbied for the change too).

Can we still get into the WCHA? Probably not, unless we somehow took Notre Dame or Miami with to replace Minnesota/Wisconsin. But then that (again) gives you 12 teams in the WCHA. As for second guessing not moving to the WCHA, if the Anti-Big10/SuperWCHA is formed, we likely would have gotten ousted anyway.

Conference realignment is coming soon anyway (due to the maxed out conferences), and it's a shame that it's the Big10 that is forcing the hand of realignment.




In short, now is the time for the 'Cats to light a fire and burn through college hockey. I'd certainly like to see us return to St. Paul this spring. What a nice 20 year anniversary that would be.

Division 1 hockey needs some pianos moved this season. So lets be the ones moving them.

 

[davyd83]

Re: NMU Offseason 2010

Two points to ponder. Average revenue per ticket at NMU is far from $14. Many of those in the house are student tickets.

As for Tom Anastos, I have tremendous respect for him, and I do believe his first goal is to get Penn State into the CCHA. However, if a Big Ten Hockey Conference is formed, I would have to think that he would be at the top of the list among candidates to get the league started and run the show.

 

[nmupiccdiva]

Re: NMU Offseason 2010

Division 1 hockey needs some pianos moved this season. So lets be the ones moving them.

Sigged.

But...

Two points to ponder. Though average revenue per ticket at NMU is far from $14. Many of those in the house are student tickets.

As for Tom Anastos, I have tremendous respect for him, and I do believe his first goal is to get Penn State into the CCHA. Howeverm if a Big Ten Hockey Conference is formed, I would have to think that he would be at the top of the list among candidates to get the league started and run the show.

I'm with him. And, if that does happen, you half can't blame him: that would be a rather prestigious position, don't you think?

aparch had a great point, though: this is still 6-7 years out, so NMU has a lot of time to build more notoriety. Let's start movin' some pianos, eh?

 

[NMU8405]

Re: NMU Offseason 2010

Take a deep breath.

Then sit down.

This isn't a bad thing... yet.

Until an announcement is made, all Penn State is going to do is say that they're making the move to Division 1. There is only 11 teams in the CCHA, a nice little spot for Penn State to get into the college hockey scene with some good opponents (Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Miami).

After a couple years of dabbling in the CCHA, then they will likely talk about forming a Big Ten Hockey Conference. For what it's worth, I know of no insider information, so this is all a wild-*ss guess. You're looking at an announcement in 2010-11. Building built by 2013 for the 2013-14 season, and (hopefully) 2016-17 at the earliest for a Big10 conference.

Here's the interesting thing that NO one seems to be able to figure out: Will there be an Anti-Big10 conference or not? Let's assume that the WCHA thinks they can go it without forming a super conference to compete.

If the WCHA stands pat, they'll have a nice round number of 10 teams. The CCHA will then be left with 8. Our eight isn't as competitive as the WCHA, and eight is a small number to go with. Maybe the CCHA can interest Robert Morris and Niagara to come over. The CCHA will never woo away a big replacement for Michigan or Michigan State, so pipe dreams of Duluth, Denver, NoDak moving to the CCHA aren't going to happen. By snagging Bobby Mo and Niagara, the CCHA now has two close teams to Penn State which may lead to the chance that the Big10 teams will still swing through the league once or twice a decade; and enough members that they can survive. Dip too low in members, and we face a CHA type death.

Now, if the Anti-Big10 is formed, you lose Miami and Notre Dame to the "Super WCHA". This will absolutely kill the CCHA. No amount of horse trading with the AHA or WCHA will get strong enough competition to bolster the league to remain competitive. We'd become what AHA is to Hockey East.

No matter how you cut it, the CCHA hierarchy goes:
1) Michigan, Michigan State
2) Miami, Notre Dame
3) Everyone else

I love the Wildcats as much as anyone else, but something is wrong when we're the flagship team of a conference (not named GLIAC). Although that would give us an easier route to an autobid to the NCAA's.

Tom Anastos (as much as we hate him) is going to fight like Hell to get Penn State to join the CCHA. And then he's going to fight harder to keep the four Big10 schools (unless the Big10 offers him a job). If Anastos bails, may the Lord have mercy on the CCHA.


As for our 'Cats; we're in a better position compared most of the CCHA. Obviously we're of some relevance to the hockey world (contrary to most of the WCHA posters beliefs on this board) if NMU was the ONLY team courted by the WCHA during their expansion (Bemidji lobbied themselves in, UNO was approached only after we said no because they lobbied for the change too).

Can we still get into the WCHA? Probably not, unless we somehow took Notre Dame or Miami with to replace Minnesota/Wisconsin. But then that (again) gives you 12 teams in the WCHA. As for second guessing not moving to the WCHA, if the Anti-Big10/SuperWCHA is formed, we likely would have gotten ousted anyway.

Conference realignment is coming soon anyway (due to the maxed out conferences), and it's a shame that it's the Big10 that is forcing the hand of realignment.




In short, now is the time for the 'Cats to light a fire and burn through college hockey. I'd certainly like to see us return to St. Paul this spring. What a nice 20 year anniversary that would be.

Division 1 hockey needs some pianos moved this season. So lets be the ones moving them.

All good points, changes are coming to college hockey, whether you like them or not. NMU is one of 17 teams to have won a national title, thats more than UMD, Saint Cloud, Miami (that could change) and Notre Dame. The list goes on and on...

The point is, NMU with its limited resources has done quite well in college hockey. The best thing for this program to do in the next decade is to just keep winning. We've got one of the best recruiting classes in Walt's years coming in this year, that should position the team well for the next few seasons.

Also, we need the students and community to support this team more than ever.

Finally, we need Ken Godfrey to be proactive and have a strong Plan B, should things go bad for the CCHA. Put the University out there, show them that we are a strong community for hockey and will make a great host for whatever conference we wind up in.

 

[RamboWildcat]

Re: NMU Offseason 2010

I'd like to know if anyone has some insights into the new recruits this season...the freshman. We lost a TON with Olver, Gustafsson leaving early and of course all the seniors led by Stewie in net. Anyone have some real info to share on the incoming class??

 

[NMU8405]

Re: NMU Offseason 2010

I'd like to know if anyone has some insights into the new recruits this season...the freshman. We lost a TON with Olver, Gustafsson leaving early and of course all the seniors led by Stewie in net. Anyone have some real info to share on the incoming class??

For making up the offense/production lost, I think NMU should be fine. Chewy, Gron and Florek should be geared to make up for the lost points from Olver. Granted it may take three players, but the offense will be made up. This team will not be held off the scoreboard many games.

As for the other side of the scoreboard, Reid Ellingson should be your starting goalie, and I like a lot more than Stewart. He is technically sound, almost never out of position. From what Ive seen, he is a stay at home goaltender, unlike Stewart who needed a leash. Ellingson is really good at his angles. I wouldnt be going out on a limb to say he is a top 3-5 goalie in the CCHA and Top 10 Nationally.

As for the incoming freshman, I have really know idea what to expect. I dont know what their roles on the team will be. Once I hear...I'll pass it along

 

[davyd83]

Re: NMU Offseason 2010

Though I agree that Florek, Cherniwchan and Gron will all improve this season, it may not show up on the stat sheet. A lot of offense was generated by NMU defense, not just in scoring, but in starting the play and moving the puck up the ice. The losses of Gustafsson and TJ Miller will hurt.

 

[NMUFAN]

Re: NMU Offseason 2010

Don't forget Jared Brown offensively.

Stewie was a good goalie but was aided by a veteran defense. Ellingson, though more technically sound, will have a much more green defense in front of him resulting in stretches of games where he's hung out to dry. I can see games (especially early this season) where the Cats are clinging to a one goal lead late in the game and the opponent is throwing everything but the kitchen sink at them. Can our D-men clear the puck away after Ellingson makes the initial stop?

The faster the defense can gel the better. I see that position as the key to our offense and Ellingson's success.

 

[aparch]

Re: NMU Offseason 2010

Captain Phil Fox?!?

Congrats!


I can't wait to make some road trips to see the 'Cats at home and away this season. Have the trips to Notre Dame and Western noted on my calendar.

 

[nmupiccdiva]

Re: NMU Offseason 2010

Captain Phil Effing Fox?!?

Congrats!


I can't wait to make some road trips to see the 'Cats at home and away this season. Have the trips to Notre Dame and Western noted on my calendar.

FTFY.

It's a little tough to swallow when you ask positive questions mentioning some of the great opportunities the pending changes will present your team to someone in the know, and you get a response back of "We're hoping they join the CCHA..."

Uh oh... you aren't talking about a certain Mystery Guest, are you?

Yup.

****.

****ing ****.

Figured I'd move this RRL discussion over here.

 

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Re: NMU Offseason 2010

You guys/gals will be happy with your team this year. Maybe you'll be on the outside of the NCAAs looking in this time (or maybe not, who knows?). However, as long as your trifecta of junior forwards pans out, and Reid Ellingson proves to be capable in goal, I wouldn't sweat it too much.

Or maybe Chewy will get lost trying to find the net.

 

[moose97]

Re: NMU Offseason 2010

Now that the season is right around the corner, and the BSU series is ~ 2 months away, any feel for how many 'Cats fans will be making the trip over? I know it's Thanksgiving weekend, but it would be nice to see some green and gold in Bemidji...

 

[aparch]

Re: NMU Offseason 2010

Moose, I'd love to make it up there for the weekend, but it's not in the cards right now.



Will there be any improvements to B2? Will Cat Chat be doing the play-by-play or will it be a simulcast of Dave Danis?

 

[moose97]

Re: NMU Offseason 2010

Will there be any improvements to B2? Will Cat Chat be doing the play-by-play or will it be a simulcast of Dave Danis?

You know, this is a great question. Since it is a road series, you should be able to pick up the BSU feed, which should be 10x better than in years past, seeing as the games will be broadcast in HD:

http://www.bsubeavers.com/mhockey/news/103/3157/

I'e got no idea how the improvement in local quality would reflect on B2, however... As an aside, I'll have to ask if it would be possible for WNMU to pick up the feed, seeing as it's going out on the Minnesota Channel anyway...

 

[NMU8405]

Re: NMU Offseason 2010

Moose, I'd love to make it up there for the weekend, but it's not in the cards right now.



Will there be any improvements to B2? Will Cat Chat be doing the play-by-play or will it be a simulcast of Dave Danis?

I want to do play by play, but NMU isnt really open to the idea of change. When the class isnt doing it, it will be play by play of The Point, when the class is, it will be two kids from the class that likely have no knowledge of hockey.

 

[aparch]

Re: NMU Offseason 2010

...when the class is, it will be two kids from the class that likely have no knowledge of hockey.

Dammit. I wasn't too thrilled with their "goal call" of Olver scoring last year. At least there is effort being put forth and some interest in making it succeed though. I bet they'd be a little more open to change if you try to push to work with WNMU more for production.

You guys should see if you could at least air the home games on tape delay overnight on WNMU's alternate channels.

 

[moose97]

Re: NMU Offseason 2010

You guys should see if you could at least air the home games on tape delay overnight on WNMU's alternate channels.

I was just going to tell you - I don't know who you should talk to at WNMU, but have that person contact Bill Sanford at Lakeland PTV to see if you could get the BSU games put on the air. Like I said, they're going out on the bird for the Minnesota Channel anyway - you'd think a PBS could pick those games up...

 

[WildcatGoal]

Re: NMU Offseason 2010

One week to go for the exhibition opener!

 

[hockeybando]

Re: NMU Offseason 2010

Pick to Click test run for the exhibition game: yes or no?

Are there any rules that you think need to be changed/added? What are they and why? If you don't want to post it here please e-mail me through USCHO.