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Nice Plant #7: Get me off of this planet

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Re: Nice Plant #7: Get me off of this planet

ScoobyDoo said:
You believe that? They've changed voting laws in so many states so they can stay in power and people actually think what they've done is ok. Thank goodness someone is bothering to report the counter to it but unfortunately no one watches.

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-...-voting-laws-hurt-turnout-report-339871811878
Click to expand...

In a few purple states (NC, WI, OH) they've managed to disenfranchise people fast enough to hold on to power. In a few red states (TX, AR) their voter suppression is magnifying their advantage. But remember that strategy only takes one slip up and it's over. Let's take a theoretical worst case where real GOP voter support has slipped to 40 percent but through tricks they've managed to suppress 20% of the electorate, so they're in a 50/50 nail biter. If they win, they have to do it again next time. But if they lose it's all over, then and forever -- all the voter suppression laws are repealed on the first day of the new state leg. Meanwhile, they've had to defend their tactics by calling all those people "lazy" or "criminals" or "illegals" -- they've mortgaged their party's future on stealing people's right to vote.

This is just the latest Jim Crow. It sucks, but we are fighting and we'll win, and every time the creeps regroup there are fewer of them. America always beats these guys in the end: 1st, 4th, 5th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 13th, 14th, 15th, 19th, 24th, 26th amendments. Eventually there will be additional amendments prohibiting voter suppression and buying elections, and then the usual suspects will move on to their next caper.
 
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Re: Nice Plant #7: Get me off of this planet

I keep hearing how the Republican party is on the decline and how they'll soon be a footnote. Hearing (reading) this here and in the media for many years now.

When exactly, will I start to see evidence of this?


I heard this when Obama was first elected. Then came the midterms and not only did the House fall into the hands of the far right (not just Republicans), but so did whole bunch of state governments.

Sure, Obama was reelected, but state governments were not reclaimed. Now we have midterms that the Republicans are favorites to hold the House and also take the Senate.


So I ask again, when?
 
Re: Nice Plant #7: Get me off of this planet

Gurtholfin said:
I keep hearing how the Republican party is on the decline and how they'll soon be a footnote. Hearing (reading) this here and in the media for many years now.

When exactly, will I start to see evidence of this?


I heard this when Obama was first elected. Then came the midterms and not only did the House fall into the hands of the far right (not just Republicans), but so did whole bunch of state governments.

Sure, Obama was reelected, but state governments were not reclaimed. Now we have midterms that the Republicans are favorites to hold the House and also take the Senate.


So I ask again, when?
Click to expand...

It will never happen. Just look at the polls going on in Iowa right now. They want Romney. You cannot make up the stupidity of this electorate. People actually believe that ISIS is coming over the Mexican border and we're all going to die tomorrow of Ebola. You cannot make this **** up and all that **** gathers Republican votes.
 
Re: Nice Plant #7: Get me off of this planet

Gurtholfin said:
I keep hearing how the Republican party is on the decline and how they'll soon be a footnote. Hearing (reading) this here and in the media for many years now.

When exactly, will I start to see evidence of this?


I heard this when Obama was first elected. Then came the midterms and not only did the House fall into the hands of the far right (not just Republicans), but so did whole bunch of state governments.

Sure, Obama was reelected, but state governments were not reclaimed. Now we have midterms that the Republicans are favorites to hold the House and also take the Senate.


So I ask again, when?
Click to expand...

They won't ever "be a footnote," because the people who make the wheels spin will make sure they recapture relevance. The current configuration is screwed, however. It's actually already changing. Remember how Obamacare was going to be the mainstay of Republican campaign ads? Mmm... about that...

If you want to know when they're going to start getting hurt in the Senate, they've already been hurt the last cycle, the math just hid it from people. They should be at worst 50-50 in the Senate, instead they are 45-55. If they take the Senate it will for one cycle, because the next election is a general *and* because the next cycle has them defending a huge number of seats (something like 23 of 33, which is half their current Senate strength). So let's say Senate 2016.

If you want to know when they're going to start getting hurt in the House, that depends on how the state legs look after the 2020 elections. The GOP had great timing with the 2010 census -- it was an off-year, the Teahadists were the new pet rock, and they controlled state legs and were able to draw very favorable districts. That's how they were able to lose the total vote in House elections in 2012 by over one million votes but still hold a decent House majority. So let's say House 2022; they look very well insulated before that, but winter is coming.

If you want to know when they're going to start getting hurt in the Presidency, you're living through it. They've already lost the office 4 of 6 times and lost the popular vote 5 of 6. The Presidency is by far the most difficult to predict because a Mule can always upset the equations (just ask the Red Queen). Systemically it looks like the GOP primaries are going to be a freak show again, but maybe out there somewhere is the guy with one ring to rule them all. If so, he's being awfully coy.

It should also be noted that even though they ought to pick up control of the Senate this time they are poised to lose some important governorships which, as Florida in 2000 showed us, can have far reaching effects.

The question is not when will the GOP die off -- it will never die off; modern political parties don't do that (or the Dems would have died in the 80's). The question is when the GOP equivalent of the DLC will take the party over. If the historical precedent mapping 2008 to 1980 continues to hold, early in 2020 the moderates should break through, force the crazies out of the RNC, and find a Huntsman With Charisma.

BTW, if that parallel holds you should enjoy making Hillary a one-termer in 2020. But you can only do that if you reform the party from inside. It's not the end of the world -- in OTL not many Dems had faced the music in 1986. There's plenty of time.

This is an interesting piece (ignore the dumb title) that suggests that Rand Paul could delay the GOP intervention for another 4 years. That would hurt them badly, if for no other reason than it would cost them SCOTUS and the judicial cover that buys them for some of their more absurd gambits.
 
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Re: Nice Plant #7: Get me off of this planet

Gurtholfin said:
I keep hearing how the Republican party is on the decline and how they'll soon be a footnote. Hearing (reading) this here and in the media for many years now.

When exactly, will I start to see evidence of this?


I heard this when Obama was first elected. Then came the midterms and not only did the House fall into the hands of the far right (not just Republicans), but so did whole bunch of state governments.

Sure, Obama was reelected, but state governments were not reclaimed. Now we have midterms that the Republicans are favorites to hold the House and also take the Senate.


So I ask again, when?
Click to expand...

This being forecast by people who think Keynesian economics is established fact. You expect them to get political evolution of the American electorate correct? :p
 
Re: Nice Plant #7: Get me off of this planet

I guess you could technically argue that evolution isn't "established fact" as well.
 
Re: Nice Plant #7: Get me off of this planet

Kepler said:
They won't ever "be a footnote," because the people who make the wheels spin will make sure they recapture relevance. The current configuration is screwed, however. It's actually already changing. Remember how Obamacare was going to be the mainstay of Republican campaign ads? Mmm... about that...

If you want to know when they're going to start getting hurt in the Senate, they've already been hurt the last cycle, the math just hid it from people. They should be at worst 50-50 in the Senate, instead they are 45-55. If they take the Senate it will for one cycle, because the next election is a general *and* because the next cycle has them defending a huge number of seats (something like 23 of 33, which is half their current Senate strength). So let's say Senate 2016.

If you want to know when they're going to start getting hurt in the House, that depends on how the state legs look after the 2020 elections. The GOP had great timing with the 2010 census -- it was an off-year, the Teahadists were the new pet rock, and they controlled state legs and were able to draw very favorable districts. That's how they were able to lose the total vote in House elections in 2012 by over one million votes but still hold a decent House majority. So let's say House 2022; they look very well insulated before that, but winter is coming.

If you want to know when they're going to start getting hurt in the Presidency, you're living through it. They've already lost the office 4 of 6 times and lost the popular vote 5 of 6. The Presidency is by far the most difficult to predict because a Mule can always upset the equations (just ask the Red Queen). Systemically it looks like the GOP primaries are going to be a freak show again, but maybe out there somewhere is the guy with one ring to rule them all. If so, he's being awfully coy.

It should also be noted that even though they ought to pick up control of the Senate this time they are poised to lose some important governorships which, as Florida in 2000 showed us, can have far reaching effects.

The question is not when will the GOP die off -- it will never die off; modern political parties don't do that (or the Dems would have died in the 80's). The question is when the GOP equivalent of the DLC will take the party over. If the historical precedent mapping 2008 to 1980 continues to hold, early in 2020 the moderates should break through, force the crazies out of the RNC, and find a Huntsman With Charisma.

BTW, if that parallel holds you should enjoy making Hillary a one-termer in 2020. But you can only do that if you reform the party from inside. It's not the end of the world -- in OTL not many Dems had faced the music in 1986. There's plenty of time.

This is an interesting piece (ignore the dumb title) that suggests that Rand Paul could delay the GOP intervention for another 4 years. That would hurt them badly, if for no other reason than it would cost them SCOTUS and the judicial cover that buys them for some of their more absurd gambits.
Click to expand...
A party's grasp on the Presidency is only as strong as the charisma of their current candidate.

We can say the Republicans lost 4 of the last 6 Presidential elections. It's also true that before the current office holder they had won 5 of 7.

The key presidential election is the first one. The country has always been leery of tossing the guy after one term. Let the Democrats win this next one, then hold serve in 2020 and we'll talk.
 
Re: Nice Plant #7: Get me off of this planet

SJHovey said:
We can say the Republicans lost 4 of the last 6 Presidential elections. It's also true that before the current office holder they had won 5 of 7.
Click to expand...

Yes, and during that time they were eating the Dems' lunch.

I think the key election is always the try for three straight. Since term limits:

Eisenhower, Eisenhower ... then a loss
Kennedy, Johnson .... then a loss
Nixon, Nixon ... then a loss
Reagan, Reagan ... then a WIN
Clinton, Clinton ... then a loss
Obama, Obama ... and we'll see
 
Re: Nice Plant #7: Get me off of this planet

SJHovey said:
Neither party's economic philosophy is correct. I don't know that there even is a correct philosophy. Doesn't it strike anyone else as strange that we have these nobel prize winning economists, geniuses (supposedly) in economic theories, yet there is no commonly accepted "right answer" as to monetary policy, tax policies, government spending policies, etc...?

I think that's because there is no correct answer.
Click to expand...

... and even if there were a "correct" answer, it would (by necessity, I'd suggest) be time-limited, as people would adjust their behavior in response to whatever was done, and combine these adjustments with technological innovation and the "correct" answer becomes obsolete and a new "correct" answer becomes necessary.







What annoys me more than anything else about the left these days is their internal inconsistency: monopolies are bad! you cannot trust people when they have monopoly power! and then they promote even more centralized power for the federal government. :rolleyes:
 
Re: Nice Plant #7: Get me off of this planet

FreshFish said:
What annoys me more than anything else about the left these days is their internal inconsistency: monopolies are bad! you cannot trust people when they have monopoly power! and then they promote even more centralized power for the federal government. :rolleyes:
Click to expand...

Sure. Obama socialism is way more scary than toxic waste, oil spills, Ebola, Banks that are Too Big To Fail, etc. etc. etc.
 
Re: Nice Plant #7: Get me off of this planet

Kepler said:
They won't ever "be a footnote," because the people who make the wheels spin will make sure they recapture relevance. The current configuration is screwed, however. It's actually already changing. Remember how Obamacare was going to be the mainstay of Republican campaign ads? Mmm... about that...

If you want to know when they're going to start getting hurt in the Senate, they've already been hurt the last cycle, the math just hid it from people. They should be at worst 50-50 in the Senate, instead they are 45-55. If they take the Senate it will for one cycle, because the next election is a general *and* because the next cycle has them defending a huge number of seats (something like 23 of 33, which is half their current Senate strength). So let's say Senate 2016.

If you want to know when they're going to start getting hurt in the House, that depends on how the state legs look after the 2020 elections. The GOP had great timing with the 2010 census -- it was an off-year, the Teahadists were the new pet rock, and they controlled state legs and were able to draw very favorable districts. That's how they were able to lose the total vote in House elections in 2012 by over one million votes but still hold a decent House majority. So let's say House 2022; they look very well insulated before that, but winter is coming.

If you want to know when they're going to start getting hurt in the Presidency, you're living through it. They've already lost the office 4 of 6 times and lost the popular vote 5 of 6. The Presidency is by far the most difficult to predict because a Mule can always upset the equations (just ask the Red Queen). Systemically it looks like the GOP primaries are going to be a freak show again, but maybe out there somewhere is the guy with one ring to rule them all. If so, he's being awfully coy.

It should also be noted that even though they ought to pick up control of the Senate this time they are poised to lose some important governorships which, as Florida in 2000 showed us, can have far reaching effects.

The question is not when will the GOP die off -- it will never die off; modern political parties don't do that (or the Dems would have died in the 80's). The question is when the GOP equivalent of the DLC will take the party over. If the historical precedent mapping 2008 to 1980 continues to hold, early in 2020 the moderates should break through, force the crazies out of the RNC, and find a Huntsman With Charisma.

BTW, if that parallel holds you should enjoy making Hillary a one-termer in 2020. But you can only do that if you reform the party from inside. It's not the end of the world -- in OTL not many Dems had faced the music in 1986. There's plenty of time.

This is an interesting piece (ignore the dumb title) that suggests that Rand Paul could delay the GOP intervention for another 4 years. That would hurt them badly, if for no other reason than it would cost them SCOTUS and the judicial cover that buys them for some of their more absurd gambits.
Click to expand...

"G*d, is I smart or what?"
 
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Re: Nice Plant #7: Get me off of this planet

joecct said:
THERE!!! He admits it! Obama is a socialist!

:)
Click to expand...

Plus, after six years of playing the piano in the fancy house, he still don't know nothin' 'bout what's goin' on upstairs.
 
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