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NHL 2015-16: John Scott for MVP!

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Re: NHL 2015-16: John Scott for MVP!

lugnut92 said:
Yes, it was meant as a joke (at least for the conference trophies). It takes three seconds to do a quick chi-squared test, so I figured I would run the numbers pretty quick just to see what they said.
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Very good.

Believing that the trophy touch has any actual impact makes about as much sense as relying on a fortune cookie. Gotta hope and believe that the vast majority agree. OK, if a player passionately believes otherwise, maybe there's a small placebo effect. :) Otherwise, it's just a part of the lore.

As for the Presidents' Trophy, I was more trying to make a point. Doing four times better than would be expected by random chance is hardly a jinx.
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I'd forgotten that exchange. But yeah, there's more of a conversation to be had on that one.

To say that a President's Trophy precludes a Stanley Cup is obviously empirically false. That's just a rallying cry for 15 of the 16 playoff teams. Again, just a part of Stanley Cup lore.

Thinking out loud, perhaps the real issue is the reasonable expectation for the President's Trophy winner. For many, the regular season champ "should" win the Cup "most" of the time. Of course that's not the case either.

If you polled of a large number of fans, I'd bet that a majority would agree that the regular season champ would win the Cup at the rate suggested by random chance, at the very least. But they'd also claim the President's Trophy winners underachieve as a group.

IIRC, your numbers suggested that the President's Trophy team would win the Stanley Cup roughly 25% of the time. For the group of top seeds, that's not overachieving IMHO. But maybe that number reflects what the reasonable expectation should be.
 
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Re: NHL 2015-16: John Scott for MVP!

I wonder how PT winners fare winning the Cup versus other league winners winning their tournament. Perhaps the PT winners win less, thus making it feel like a jinx, or perhaps they don't and it's us subjectively viewing it that way.
 
Re: NHL 2015-16: John Scott for MVP!

Back in the US. Back in the US. Back in the USSR!

@SlavaMalamud: Dynamo Moscow has never paid its players since March and isn't promising to do it anytime soon. Must be waiting for Ovechkin, huh...
 
Re: NHL 2015-16: John Scott for MVP!

If the first period is any indication of how this series goes it will be over in 4. Pens all over the Sharks. Wasn't even close. If it weren't for Jones this thing would be a lot worse tban just 2-0 after 1.
 
Re: NHL 2015-16: John Scott for MVP!

So, is Pittsburgh going to regret they didn't put them away in the 1st? This is a hockey game now.

EDIT: Like I was saying. Tied.
 
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ScoobyDoo said:
So, is Pittsburgh going to regret they didn't put them away in the 1st? This is a hockey game now.

EDIT: Like I was saying. Tied.
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Crazy how momentum can change from one period to the next. Expect the third to be evenly played with a fluke goal to win it for either team.
 
Re: NHL 2015-16: John Scott for MVP!

Well, we now know that each team is capable of excellence against the other. And for that matter, each is vulnerable to the other. Very tough to predict what comes next. All we can do is buckle up and enjoy the ride.:)

Looking forward, anyone else notice that a potential Game 7 would be on June 15th? Go past four, and there's two travel days for each additional game played. Not hoping for a short series, but that seems kind of excessive.

While also true between Games 2 & 3, that extra time seems more reasonable. You're still getting the first 4 games done in 8 days. It also allows for a Saturday night tilt in SJ. In contrast, after Game 4...

I know it's a long flight and all. But I've got to believe that virtually everyone involved would prefer to cut back on all that sitting around.
 
Re: NHL 2015-16: John Scott for MVP!

French Rage said:
I wonder how PT winners fare winning the Cup versus other league winners winning their tournament. Perhaps the PT winners win less, thus making it feel like a jinx, or perhaps they don't and it's us subjectively viewing it that way.
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You know, I'd like some real answers to these questions. Let's do some tabulating.

But what to tabulate? How about this: Let's consider results from the top four professional sports leagues: MLB, NFL, NBA and of course the NHL. We'll look at a full generation of results, which I'll operationalize as 30 years. Note that sports losing a championship tournament due to strike or lockout go back one year further in time.

The specific question posed for each league is this: How many of the last 30 playoff champions posted the best won-lost record during the regular season? In other words: How many "Double Champions" did each league have?

To make the hurdle a little easier to get over, we'll let all regular season ties stand. Note that the NHL President's Trophy does have a tie-breaking procedure. But in the case of the NHL, ignoring the tie-breaker doesn't create any additional Double Champions.

Overview of the 30 Year Results
MLB = 6 Double Champions
NHL = 8 Double Champions
NFL = 10 Double Champions
NBA = 14 Double Champions

My take is that the NHL fits into the group pretty nicely, especially when one considers that the playoff fields in MLB and the NFL are smaller. In other words, it's not unusually difficult to pull off the double in the NHL. Rather, Baseball looks like a bit of an outlier with its smaller playoff field, yet smaller number of cases. At the other end of the spectrum, one wonders if a lack of parity in the NBA allows for an unusually high number of double winners.

I suppose an alternate take would be that the NBA has the most similar playoff structure to the NHL, and the NBA produces almost twice as many Double Champions as the NHL. So maybe there is a little jinxin' goin' on.:)

Me? I'm sticking with the first interpretation.

For reference, here are the double winners I identified in my count:

Major League Baseball: 6 Double Champs; 2 With Regular Season Ties
2013 Boston Red Sox (tie)
2009 New York Yankees
2007 Boston Red Sox (tie)
1998 New York Yankees
1989 Oakland A's
1986 New York Mets

National Hockey League: 8 Double Champs; 0 Ties
2013 Chicago Blackhawks
2008 Detroit Red Wings
2002 Detroit Red Wings
2001 Colorado Avalanche
1999 Dallas Stars
1994 New York Rangers
1989 Calgary Flames
1987 Edmonton Oilers

National Football League: 10 Double Champs; 6 Ties
2014 New England Patriots (tie)
2013 Seattle Seahawks (tie)
2003 New England Patriots
2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (tie)
1996 Green Bay Packers (tie)
1994 San Francisco 49ers
1993 Dallas Cowboys (tie)
1991 Washington Redskins
1989 San Francisco 49ers
1986 New York Giants (tie)

National Basketball Association: 14 Double Champs; 2 Ties
2015 Golden State Warriors
2014 San Antonio Spurs
2013 Miami Heat
2008 Boston Celtics
2003 San Antonio Spurs
2000 Los Angeles Lakers
1999 San Antonio Spurs (tie)
1998 Chicago Bulls (tie)
1997 Chicago Bulls
1996 Chicago Bulls
1992 Chicago Bulls
1989 Detroit Pistons
1988 Los Angeles Lakers
1986 Boston Celtics

Find any errors on these lists? Corrections will be welcomed. When I was compiling my lists I actually found a couple of errors in the online sources I was using. The NFL can be especially confusing with each Super Bowl in a different calendar year than the season itself.

But assuming my lists are accurate, do they settle the question? Not really. I'm certainly open to other interpretations, or other ways of asking the question. But I do think taking a long term look was of value.

Look at the last 3 NBA Seasons. All Double Champs. With a definite possibility of a 4th double winner in 2016. NHL? Except for the lock-out shortened season of 2013, no Double Champs. With a short term focus, comparing only with the NBA, it's tempting to say something like: "Their best team usually wins the playoffs; our best team usually doesn't." But the long term results, including the MLB & NFL numbers, paint a different picture.
 
Re: NHL 2015-16: John Scott for MVP!

pgb-ohio said:
You know, I'd like some real answers to these questions. Let's do some tabulating.
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Look at the last 3 NBA Seasons. All Double Champs. With a definite possibility of a 4th double winner in 2016. NHL? Except for the lock-out shortened season of 2013, no Double Champs. With a short term focus, comparing only with the NBA, it's tempting to say something like: "Their best team usually wins the playoffs; our best team usually doesn't." But the long term results, including the MLB & NFL numbers, paint a different picture.
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Are you retired?
 
Re: NHL 2015-16: John Scott for MVP!

pgb-ohio said:
At the other end of the spectrum, one wonders if a lack of parity in the NBA allows for an unusually high number of double winners.
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If you have an easy way to check, what is the average gap between the regular season champ's win (or point) percentage and the average playoff team's W% in each league? There's only four leagues so any potential correlation probably would not stand up to scrutiny, but that could be an argument for the "more parity = fewer double champs" argument.
 
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Re: NHL 2015-16: John Scott for MVP!

lugnut92 said:
If you have an easy way to check, what is the average gap between the regular season champ's win (or point) percentage and the average playoff team's W% in each league? There's only four leagues so any potential correlation probably would not stand up to scrutiny, but that could be an argument for the "less parity = fewer double champs" argument.
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Regression tests over 30 or more seasons could provide statistically significant results.
 
Re: NHL 2015-16: John Scott for MVP!

goldy_331 said:
Are you retired?
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Regrettably no. That's one reason it took me 4 days to respond.;)

The question caught my fancy, so I just did one league at a time until done. Not that there was anything complicated about it; there wasn't. It just took some time to locate the info for each league and organize it.

lugnut92 said:
If you have an easy way to check, what is the average gap between the regular season champ's win (or point) percentage and the average playoff team's W% in each league? There's only four leagues so any potential correlation probably would not stand up to scrutiny, but that could be an argument for the "less parity = fewer double champs" argument.
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Actually more parity = fewer double champs; but your meaning was clear.

Partly due to the "not retired" thing, regrettably no. I do lack an easy way to check as I didn't put any numbers into the computer. Just recorded champion names on a legal pad; and whether or not there was a double champ for each season. Basically 120 answers to a yes/no question.

But if anybody's feeling ambitious, it wouldn't be conceptually difficult at all. Just a little time-consuming.:)

Regardless, it is a great point. Not all regular season champs are created equal. If a team blows away the rest of the field during the regular season, it stands to reason that the probability of a playoff crown is fairly strong. Conversely, if you have a 4 way tie for the top spot -- which has happened in the NFL -- it would be silly to assume all four teams have an "inside track." Example: 4 teams finish an NFL Regular season at 12-4, and everyone else in the playoff field has at least 9 wins. Not a lot of separation there. Conversely, if you have a single 15-1 team and the rest of the records are 11-5 or below... Well, you get the idea.
 
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Re: NHL 2015-16: John Scott for MVP!

And I think that'll be it. Be difficult for San Jose to come back.
 
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