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NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

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Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

I look forward to seeing the Flyers tear the Devils apart.
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

Go Western Conference! Don't like a single team left in the East.
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

Brenthoven said:
I have never hated you more than at this moment. Though you probably speak the truth, f* you.
Click to expand...
It's not that I dislike the Flyers any less than I like the Devils, it's that the Devils are a garbage team of cheats (salary cap and otherwise) who barely squeaked by weak opposition, and they deserve to be spanked.
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

First Round recap post!

Using Bradley-Terry rankings (i.e., KRACH) found here, it was possible to break down the probabilities of each possible outcome of the eight series. Here's how those initial projections stacked up:

West
VAN-LAK
Initial projection: Vancouver in 6, 20.7%
Overall projection: Vancouver wins, 70.9%
Actual outcome: Los Angeles in 5
Initial possibility: 6.17% (7th most likely of 8)

STL-SJS
Initial projection: St. Louis in 5, 23.5%
Overall projection: St. Louis wins, 76.9%
Actual outcome: St. Louis in 5
Initial possibility: 23.5% (1st most likely of 8)

PHX-CHI
Initial projection: Chicago in 6, 16.6%
Overall projection: Chicago wins, 53.3%
Actual outcome: Phoenix in 6
Initial possibility: 14.6% (4th most likely of 8)

NSH-DET
Initial projection: Nashville in 6, 17.7%
Overall projection: Nashville wins, 57.6%
Actual outcome: Nashville in 5
Initial possibility: 15.2% (3rd most likely of 8)

How I (the numbers) did: 1 winner and length, 1 winner (wrong length), 2 wrong winner
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

East
NYR-OTT
Initial projection: New York in 5, 24.3%
Overall projection: New York wins, 78.5%
Actual outcome: New York in 7
Initial possibility: 15.6% (4th most likely of 8)

BOS-WAS
Initial projection: Boston in 6, 18.2%
Overall projection: Boston wins, 59.5%
Actual outcome: Washington in 7
Initial possibility: 13.9% (4th most likely of 8)

FLA-NJD
Initial projection: New Jersey in 6, 18.5%
Overall projection: New Jersey, 60.8%
Actual outcome: New Jersey in 7
Initial possibility: 16.7% (2nd most likely of 8)

PIT-PHI
Initial projection: Philadelphia in 6, 16.1%
Overall projection: Philadelphia wins, 51.5%
Actual outcome: Philadelphia in 6
Initial possibility: 16.1% (1st most likely of 8)

How I (the numbers) did: 1 winner and length, 2 winners (wrong length), 1 wrong winner
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

Now for next round. Based on Bradley-Terry rankings (i.e., KRACH) found here, the initial most likely outcomes are:

West: STL in 5 (22.0%), NSH in 6 (18.7%)
East: NYR in 5 (21.2%), PHI in 6 (19.2%)

Overall winning probabilities:
West
STL 73.8% - LAK 26.2%
PHX 38.5% - NSH 61.5%

East
NYR 72.1% - WAS 27.9%
PHI 63.7% - NJD 36.3%

As always, KRACH is not a perfect predictive system. In fact, it's not predictive at all; it's retrodictive. Home-ice advantage, momentum, and the like can not be accounted for reliably, so they are ignored.

Remarks: The numbers are very cocky. Philly is only going to win this series if they learn how to defense.

Next Round possibilities:
Code: 
-------------------------
|WEST |    HOME         |
|CONF.|-----------------|
|     | STL | PHX | NSH |
|-----------------------|
|A|PHX|28.4%|XXXXX|XXXXX|
|W|---|-----------------|
|A|NSH|45.4%|XXXXX|XXXXX|
|Y|---|-----------------|
| |LAK|XXXXX|10.1%|16.1%|
-------------------------

-------------------------
|EAST |    HOME         |
|CONF.|-----------------|
|     | NYR | PHI | NJD |
|-----------------------|
|A|PHI|45.9%|XXXXX|XXXXX|
|W|---|-----------------|
|A|NJD|26.2%|XXXXX|XXXXX|
|Y|---|-----------------|
| |WAS|XXXXX|17.6%|10.1%|
-------------------------
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

I wanna see Flyers-Rangers, Kings-Coyotes.

Then Kings-Rangers. LA-NY.

Thank Parise we avoided Caps-Devils. *yawn*
 
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