Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!
Based on Bradley-Terry rankings (i.e., KRACH) found
here, the updated (after 4/28) most likely outcomes are:
West: STL in 6 (20.8%), NSH in 7 (18.0%)
East: NYR in 5 (26.8%), PHI in 6 (19.2%)
Overall winning probabilities:
West
STL 54.6% - LAK 45.4%
PHX 57.8% - NSH 42.2%
East
NYR 84.0% - WAS 16.0%
PHI 63.7% - NJD 36.3%
As always, KRACH is not a perfect predictive system. In fact, it's not predictive at all; it's retrodictive. Home-ice advantage, momentum, and the like can not be accounted for reliably, so they are ignored.
Remarks: Stupid effing Kings. Should've been a major... Anyway, it finally happened! Nashville has the most likely winning scenario, but Phoenix is more likely to win the series.
Next Round possibilities:
Code:
-------------------------
|WEST | HOME |
|CONF.|-----------------|
| | STL | PHX | NSH |
|-----------------------|
|A|PHX|31.6%|XXXXX|XXXXX|
|W|---|-----------------|
|A|NSH|23.1%|XXXXX|XXXXX|
|Y|---|-----------------|
| |LAK|XXXXX|26.2%|19.2%|
-------------------------
-------------------------
|EAST | HOME |
|CONF.|-----------------|
| | NYR | PHI | NJD |
|-----------------------|
|A|PHI|53.5%|XXXXX|XXXXX|
|W|---|-----------------|
|A|NJD|30.5%|XXXXX|XXXXX|
|Y|---|-----------------|
| |WAS|XXXXX|10.2%|5.81%|
-------------------------