Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!
Based on Bradley-Terry rankings (i.e., KRACH) found
here, the updated (after 4/17) most likely outcomes are:
West: LAK in 4 (44.1%), STL in 5 (40.1%), PHX in 6 (24.9%), NSH in 5 (55.3%)
East: NYR in 5 (41.3%), BOS in 5 (30.4%), FLA in 6 (23.1%), PHI in 4 (54.0%)
Overall winning probabilities:
West
VAN 9.80% - LAK 90.2%
STL 85.7% - SJS 14.3%
PHX 68.4% - CHI 31.6%
NSH 91.1% - DET 8.90%
East
NYR 86.7% - OTT 13.3%
BOS 76.1% - WAS 23.9%
FLA 63.2% - NJD 36.8%
PIT 4.48% - PHI 95.5%
As always, KRACH is not a perfect predictive system. In fact, it's not predictive at all; it's retrodictive. Home-ice advantage, momentum, and the like can not be accounted for reliably, so they are ignored.
Next Round possibilities:
Code:
-------------------------------------------
|WEST | HOME |
|CONF.|-----------------------------------|
| | VAN | STL | PHX | NSH | DET | CHI |
|-----------------------------------------|
| |PHX|XXXXX|5.74%|XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXXX|
| |---|-----------------------------------|
| |NSH|5.23%|2.42%|49.0%|XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXXX|
| |---|-----------------------------------|
|A|DET|0.51%|0.24%|4.79%|XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXXX|
|W|---|-----------------------------------|
|A|CHI|2.65%|XXXXX|XXXXX|22.7%|2.22%|XXXXX|
|Y|---|-----------------------------------|
| |SJS|1.40%|XXXXX|XXXXX|8.04%|0.79%|4.08%|
| |---|-----------------------------------|
| |LAK|XXXXX|77.3%|8.83%|3.72%|0.36%|XXXXX|
-------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------
|EAST | HOME |
|CONF.|-----------------------------------|
| | NYR | BOS | FLA | PIT | PHI | NJD |
|-----------------------------------------|
| |FLA|XXXXX|41.7%|XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXXX|
| |---|-----------------------------------|
| |PIT|1.87%|1.09%|0.87%|XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXXX|
| |---|-----------------------------------|
|A|PHI|39.8%|23.2%|18.6%|XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXXX|
|W|---|-----------------------------------|
|A|NJD|24.3%|XXXXX|XXXXX|0.51%|10.8%|XXXXX|
|Y|---|-----------------------------------|
| |WAS|20.7%|XXXXX|XXXXX|0.09%|1.92%|1.17%|
| |---|-----------------------------------|
| |OTT|XXXXX|10.2%|2.01%|0.05%|1.12%|XXXXX|
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