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NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

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Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

MountieBoyOz said:
Helps when the Rangers are afraid to breath on anyone without getting a penalty called on them. They've taken the Rangers out of their game.
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I haven't had any complaints about the way the game has been called tonight. Looked like the teams just decided to play hockey instead, which helps, obviously. I wonder if things would have played out differently if the Rangers had gone with Scott instead of Kreider like the rumor had been.
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

This is for King Henrik.

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/_0vCqEgarBY" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

3-3 in DC on a breakaway. I smell OT.
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

Third-man in gets nothing? I didn't realize that was allowed now.

Bruins lead anyway.
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

Other teams btich and moan and flop all over the ice to try to draw penalties. The Bruins get screwed over by the refs and score anyway.
French Rage said:
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Keep hoping.
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

At least we had some useless goals at the end of the game to make it look better than it was. But being down 2-1 in the series to the Blues somehow feels like 3-0 with the way the Sharks have looked. Blargh.
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

Rimbaud said:
At least we had some useless goals at the end of the game to make it look better than it was. But being down 2-1 in the series to the Blues somehow feels like 3-0 with the way the Sharks have looked. Blargh.
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Yeah, that was sloppy on our part, and the Sharks got way too close to tying it up there. That sort of thing can give you a lot of momentum heading into the next game. Though the two days off in between might serve to temper that.
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

The Sharks need a new assistant coach in charge of defense/PK and possibly a new goaltender.

They're repeatedly screwed on the PK because Niemi has two weaknesses to his game. He lets out juicy rebounds that anyone outside of Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith are unable to clear quickly enough and he's not strong moving side to side across the crease, needing a second half push some times to get post to post.

So, you have the Sharks choosing to play a passive PK so they can clear out all the rebounds, which then turns into heavy pressure and cross ice passes that end up in the net. They were 1st, 5th, and 5th on the PK from 2007-08 to 2009-10 with Nabokov in net. Two years with primarily Niemi and they've been 24th and 29th in the league. Chicago was 6th the year they won the cup, but I'm thinking that was a combination of Seabrook and Keith being much better than anyone the Sharks can bring out and less available tape on Niemi.
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

Warning: this man is a perfessional, do not try this at home.

The current issue of Sports Illustrated has a brief Stanley Cup playoffs preview. It's written by Michael Farber. He predicts the Western Conference final will match the Vancouver Canucks against the Nashville Predators with Vancouver advancing to the Cup final. Farber predicts the Eastern Conference final will match the Pittsburgh Penguins against the Boston Bruins with Pittsburgh advancing to the Cup final. Farber has Vancouver and Pittsburgh meeting for the Stanley Cup.

Vancouver plays tomorrow night at Los Angeles. Pittsburgh plays tomorrow night at Philadelphia. Vancouver and Pittsburgh both trail three games to none in their first round series. Nice job Mike.
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

A Shot and a Goal said:
Vancouver plays tomorrow night at Los Angeles. Pittsburgh plays tomorrow night at Philadelphia. Vancouver and Pittsburgh both trail three games to none in their first round series. Nice job Mike.
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When they win out he's going to look like a genius.
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

A Shot and a Goal said:
Warning: this man is a perfessional, do not try this at home.

The current issue of Sports Illustrated has a brief Stanley Cup playoffs preview. It's written by Michael Farber. He predicts the Western Conference final will match the Vancouver Canucks against the Nashville Predators with Vancouver advancing to the Cup final. Farber predicts the Eastern Conference final will match the Pittsburgh Penguins against the Boston Bruins with Pittsburgh advancing to the Cup final. Farber has Vancouver and Pittsburgh meeting for the Stanley Cup.

Vancouver plays tomorrow night at Los Angeles. Pittsburgh plays tomorrow night at Philadelphia. Vancouver and Pittsburgh both trail three games to none in their first round series. Nice job Mike.
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I don't think many people would have predicted LA and Philly up 3-0 at this point. Did you?
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

MinnesotaNorthStar said:
If you say you did you're lying...
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I'm sure someone in Vegas has a wager on it. I think it was Darren Rovell who sent out a tweet with a picture of a betting stub with the Kings either winning the series or sweeping. It was $10 to win $310.
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

Based on Bradley-Terry rankings (i.e., KRACH) found here, the updated (after 4/16) most likely outcomes are:

West: LAK in 4 (44.0%), STL in 5 (40.1%), CHI in 6 (19.8%), NSH in 5 (29.6%)
East: NYR in 5 (41.3%), BOS in 5 (30.5%), NJD in 6 (22.3%), PHI in 4 (54.0%)

Overall winning probabilities:
West
VAN 9.8% - LAK 90.2%
STL 85.7% - SJS 14.3%
PHX 47.4% - CHI 52.6%
NSH 75.0% - DET 25.0%

East
NYR 86.7% - OTT 13.3%
BOS 76.1% - WAS 23.9%
FLA 41.1% - NJD 58.9%
PIT 4.5% - PHI 95.5%

As always, KRACH is not a perfect predictive system. In fact, it's not predictive at all; it's retrodictive. Home-ice advantage, momentum, and the like can not be accounted for reliably, so they are ignored.

Since a few series are coming near to a close, I figured I would put up the likelihoods of the next round's matchups.

Next Round possibilities:
Code: 
-------------------------------------------
|WEST |                HOME               |
|CONF.|-----------------------------------|
|     | VAN | STL | PHX | NSH | DET | CHI |
|-----------------------------------------|
| |PHX|XXXXX|3.98%|XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXXX|
| |---|-----------------------------------|
| |NSH|2.99%|3.31%|28.0%|XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXXX|
| |---|-----------------------------------|
|A|DET|1.00%|1.11%|9.33%|XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXXX|
|W|---|-----------------------------------|
|A|CHI|4.41%|XXXXX|XXXXX|31.0%|10.4%|XXXXX|
|Y|---|-----------------------------------|
| |SJS|1.40%|XXXXX|XXXXX|4.58%|1.52%|6.78%|
| |---|-----------------------------------|
| |LAK|XXXXX|77.3%|6.11%|5.08%|1.69%|XXXXX|
-------------------------------------------

-------------------------------------------
|EAST |                HOME               |
|CONF.|-----------------------------------|
|     | NYR | BOS | FLA | PIT | PHI | NJD |
|-----------------------------------------|
| |FLA|XXXXX|27.1%|XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXXX|
| |---|-----------------------------------|
| |PIT|1.22%|1.74%|0.57%|XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXXX|
| |---|-----------------------------------|
|A|PHI|25.9%|37.1%|12.1%|XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXXX|
|W|---|-----------------------------------|
|A|NJD|38.9%|XXXXX|XXXXX|0.81%|17.3%|XXXXX|
|Y|---|-----------------------------------|
| |WAS|20.7%|XXXXX|XXXXX|0.06%|1.25%|1.87%|
| |---|-----------------------------------|
| |OTT|XXXXX|10.1%|1.31%|0.08%|1.79%|XXXXX|
-------------------------------------------
 
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