Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!
Based on Bradley-Terry rankings (i.e., KRACH) found
here, the updated (after 4/22, old KRACH) most likely outcomes are:
West:
LAK in 5 (100%),
STL in 5 (100%), PHX in 6 (49.7%),
NSH in 5 (100%)
East: OTT in 6 (38.3%), BOS in 7 (52.9%), FLA in 6 (46.6%),
PHI in 6 (100%)
Overall winning probabilities:
West
VAN 0.00% - LAK 100.0%
STL 100.0% - SJS 0.00%
PHX 74.7% - CHI 25.3%
NSH 100.0% - DET 0.00%
East
NYR 38.0% - OTT 62.0%
BOS 52.9% - WAS 47.1%
FLA 71.5% - NJD 28.5%
PIT 0.00% - PHI 100.0%
As always, KRACH is not a perfect predictive system. In fact, it's not predictive at all; it's retrodictive. Home-ice advantage, momentum, and the like can not be accounted for reliably, so they are ignored.
Remarks: By the numbers, Ottawa winning tonight is just barely more likely to happen than NYR winning the next two (38.336% to 38.025%), which sort of highlights the scenario I proposed after Game 1 of the VAN-LAK series. In fact, before the KRACHs were updated to reflect the Sens' Game 5 victory, the Rangers victory in 7 was more likely than either Ottawa winning scenario, though Ottawa was more likely to win the series in any fashion. In other news, 3 of the 4 series have been correctly predicted by KRACH so far, and I think everyone can agree that Quick and the Kings are much better than their record indicates. When the round is all over, I'll have a little wrap-up post commenting on how likely each of the actual outcomes seemed at the round's start.
Next Round possibilities:
Code:
-------------------------
|WEST | HOME |
|CONF.|-----------------|
| | STL | PHX | NSH |
|-----------------------|
|A|NSH|XXXXX|74.7%|XXXXX|
|W|---|-----------------|
|A|CHI|XXXXX|XXXXX|25.3%|
|Y|---|-----------------|
| |LAK| 100%|XXXXX|XXXXX|
-------------------------
-------------------------------------
|EAST | HOME |
|CONF.|-----------------------------|
| | NYR | BOS | FLA | PHI | NJD |
|-----------------------------------|
| |FLA|XXXXX|14.4%|XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXXX|
| |---|-----------------------------|
|A|PHI|14.4%|5.72%|36.3%|XXXXX|XXXXX|
|W|---|-----------------------------|
|A|NJD|5.72%|XXXXX|XXXXX|14.4%|XXXXX|
|Y|---|-----------------------------|
| |WAS|17.9%|XXXXX|XXXXX|20.9%|8.31%|
| |---|-----------------------------|
| |OTT|XXXXX|32.8%|20.9%|8.31%|XXXXX|
-------------------------------------