nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

[Kepler]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

But if it’s wrong, some of their math must be off right? I don’t know anything, but my first hunch is that you’re looking at the 30-40% contagion as being absurd?

I have the same amount of actionable information as everybody else, which is almost none, but if you want my completely uninformed garbage hunch it's that the lethality rate is vastly overestimated because the actual infection number -- the denominator of the lethality ratio -- is still greatly underestimated.

It's not an accident that infection is "spreading" exactly as fast as testing kits come on line. It's like police brutality and cell phones -- it was pervasive, we just weren't seeing it yet.

So OK, let's say 40M people catch it and lethality turns out to be .01% and the death toll in the US is "only" 40k. Just like other pandemics.

Like I said, a Rorschach test. It's obvious that I should be investing with greater risk than most people. (In real life that's false. That's money, I care about that. Living on in poverty is a catastrophe. Dying is purely neutral -- nobody's ever had an instant of consciousness of death, positive or negative. It's the end of time. When I die y'all die too, along with time, space, and causality. Sorry about that, folks.)

 

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

That sucks. There are plenty of places domestically that are on a par with low resource abroad settings. Could they be swayed?

I think so. My school has been good so far. I’d rather wait a few months and see if travel looks possible since that is why I chose the program vs a domestic focused mph.
Depends on how long I have to delay, though

 

[Kepler]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

The death toll is not the thing that is concerning. Look at the numbers of people they predict will need ICU or ventilators. That is A LOT and you need people to know what they are doing in those situations- it is specialized. Do we have staff and ventilators to cover that? That is one of the take homes they had from Wuhan. The sheer number of pts with need and no ability to meet it.

OTOH, those are the Olds. Who, and this may come as a surprise, haven't really been distinguishing themselves lately...

 

[leswp1]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

I have the same amount of actionable information as everybody else, which is almost none, but if you want my completely uninformed garbage hunch it's that the lethality rate is vastly overestimated because the actual infection number -- the denominator of the lethality ratio -- is still greatly underestimated.

It's not an accident that infection is "spreading" exactly as fast as testing kits come on line. It's like police brutality and cell phones -- it was pervasive, we just weren't seeing it yet.

So OK, let's say 40M people catch it and lethality turns out to be .01% and the death toll in the US is "only" 40k. Just like other pandemics.

Like I said, a Rorschach test. It's obvious that I should be investing with greater risk than most people. (In real life that's false. That's money, I care about that. Living on in poverty is a catastrophe. Dying is purely neutral -- nobody's ever had an instant of consciousness of death, positive or negative. It's the end of time. When I die y'all die too, along with time, space, and causality. Sorry about that, folks.)

OTOH, those are the Olds. Who, and this may come as a surprise, haven't really been distinguishing themselves lately...

No. In the hearing one of the things they said was the biggest predictor, out pacing any other risk was healthcare system burden. That is why Wuhan had rates higher than outside provinces. Also- unlike the other viruses so far, the patients need complex care, medical support and to be ventilated for much longer than flu- so you are tying up those resources for way longer. The medical people seem to have paid attention to this but it is going over the heads of most everyone else talking about risk.

 

[Kepler]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

No. In the hearing one of the things they said was the biggest predictor, out pacing any other risk was healthcare system burden.

Let me see if I understand. Take the same disease in two settings. In one push patients through the ventilation process in a hospital with sufficient resources. Result: low lethality. In the other, overwhelm the care system with so many people they literally can't care for them end-to-end. Result: a huge backlog of treatment and a high lethality rate.

So, it's not that the disease is lethal, it's that the infection rate is so high we don't have the facilities.

Is that right?

I can see that. It's pretty cool actually -- I never thought we'd reach a situation in which care didn't scale in the United States, short of say an all out nuclear attack. I thought that was strictly a Third World problem.

OK. Half a million deaths then.

Can I pick?

 

[leswp1]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

Let me see if I understand. Take the same disease in two settings. In one push patients through the ventilation process in a hospital with sufficient resources. Result: low lethality. In the other, overwhelm the care system with so many people they literally can't care for them end-to-end. Result: a huge backlog of treatment and a high lethality rate.

So, it's not that the disease is lethal, it's that the infection rate is so high we don't have the facilities.

Is that right?

I can see that. It's pretty cool actually -- I never thought we'd reach a situation in which care didn't scale in the United States, short of say an all out nuclear attack. I thought that was strictly a Third World problem.

OK. Half a million deaths then.

Can I pick?

Correct. And guess where has lesser capabilities..... where the people who the bozo is telling not to worry.

 

[BassAle]

We were thinking of going to Amsterdam in end of May for a week because one of our friends has to go for business (company is based there). We were all going to go together. Um not right now it seems. A little digging and with all the stuff we are reading what a potential for a mess.
Her job might cancel the whole thing. Lots of companies are banning travel and going online for meetings.
The Nederlands has a thing on country website about be prepared for cancellation of travel in parts of the country. Not happening yet but not out of the picture. (They actually have a fairly large # of confirmed cases and are a direct route of trade from China- who knew)*.
There is the potential for being trapped not being able to come back- tempting.
Some stuff on a medical site saying there is evidence that the virus is more tolerant of heat/humidity than other viruses that die back. There is some indication that cases may not diminish.
A lot of places are booking and saying you can cancel but really mean you bump the timing with in a year. The other folks could theoretically just move the trip to a diff time. mr les works in college athletics- we have a little window of opportunity- no shifting time frames.

Not a panic type person but not really willing to gamble on thousands of $$ that we might not recoup.

*and Canada lists it as a high terrorism risk site.

I’m glad I got insurance for my upcoming London flights in case **** really hits the fan. I’ve also got non-refundable flights to Phoenix next month so hopefully things don’t explode before the. At least the Grand Canyon might not be crowded.

Work is curtailing lots of travel and limiting our international guests. Also making plans for more widespread work from home practices (easy for me to do) but we will not close. Lots of ongoing research that can’t be abandoned and over a million mice that need to be cared for

 

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

Check that insurance. I have some and my school informed me that virtually none of these travel insurances cover pandemics unless you are traveling and come down with it.

 

[The Rube]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

Sure it is as long as your overall output is satisfactory.

If person X can do in 32 hours what person y does in 40, who gives a shiat if person X plays hooky for those 8 hours. Especially if management apparently doesn't care.

My company's jobs are not structured like that. It's a daily variable thing. We get orders in, we ship said orders out. It's not an office job. It's warehouse.

 

[geezer]

Correct. And guess where has lesser capabilities..... where the people who the bozo is telling not to worry.

I thought we were in better shape than the metros because we’ve got a hospital in every little town up here. There was some kind of (evil socialist) “driving distance to hospital” funding that put a big addition on our local (pop. 2000) hospital even though there’s another one (for a pop. 8000) 9 miles away. I thought it was silly to have so many beds, before. Was that just a Michigan thing?

 

[leswp1]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

I thought we were in better shape than the metros because we’ve got a hospital in every little town up here. There was some kind of (evil socialist) “driving distance to hospital” funding that put a big addition on our local (pop. 2000) hospital even though there’s another one (for a pop. 8000) 9 miles away. I thought it was silly to have so many beds, before. Was that just a Michigan thing?

yes. In a lot of the red states they are closing rural hospitals and clinics due to lack of funding. . There are some places the nearest hosp now is pretty far away and specialists even farther.

 

[BassAle]

Check that insurance. I have some and my school informed me that virtually none of these travel insurances cover pandemics unless you are traveling and come down with it.

It won’t cover a cancellation if I’m just afraid of traveling. If there are travel restrictions that interfere with my trip then I may be covered

 

[geezer]

yes. In a lot of the red states they are closing rural hospitals and clinics due to lack of funding. . There are some places the nearest hosp now is pretty far away and specialists even farther.

We have way more hospital infrastructure than we have specialist doctors. Mrs geezer had to drive little geezer 3 hours each way last week just to find a doc qualified to remove tonsils... hopefully someone up here knows how lungs work...

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

I've got a hunch that number is low.

Meanwhile, how bad is Covid-19? It's like a combination of AIDS and SARS may cause irreversible lung damage to survivors.

Everything I’ve read so far is that only very very rare. But the article isn’t wrong to warn we don’t know the long term issues.

Take mono, when you get it, it actually increases your chance of getting lymphoma later in life. They aren’t sure why but they know it does. The genetic overlap in some lymphomas and Epstein Barr is fairly significant

 

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

It won’t cover a cancellation if I’m just afraid of traveling. If there are travel restrictions that interfere with my trip then I may be covered

I wasted money by buying some recently. Delta refunded me for my flight last week which was nice

 

[leswp1]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

We have way more hospital infrastructure than we have specialist doctors. Mrs geezer had to drive little geezer 3 hours each way last week just to find a doc qualified to remove tonsils... hopefully someone up here knows how lungs work...

This is exactly what I was talking about. Basic stuff OK. Managing a bunch of folks- all on vents and on precautions- nightmare scenario. Most places do not have an endless supply of what is needed and vents scare a lot of people. I worked with them when I was first out and it didn't take long for me to be comfortable but that was in stable people who were on vents long term- not with people who were critically ill, changing status and with a bunch of precaution protocols. Those are time consuming to do right.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

Let me see if I understand. Take the same disease in two settings. In one push patients through the ventilation process in a hospital with sufficient resources. Result: low lethality. In the other, overwhelm the care system with so many people they literally can't care for them end-to-end. Result: a huge backlog of treatment and a high lethality rate.

So, it's not that the disease is lethal, it's that the infection rate is so high we don't have the facilities.

Is that right?

I can see that. It's pretty cool actually -- I never thought we'd reach a situation in which care didn't scale in the United States, short of say an all out nuclear attack. I thought that was strictly a Third World problem.

OK. Half a million deaths then.

Can I pick?

Yeah, the numbers around hospital beds is scary. The numbers around mechanical ventilation are ****ing terrifying. The people who need those absolutely need them. If we run out those newly infected are in serious trouble.

I’m almost wondering if it’s better to get it now than two months from now.

 

[Russell Jaslow]

I’m almost wondering if it’s better to get it now than two months from now.

That’s an interesting thought.

 

[MinnesotaNorthStar]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

Building in China used to quarantine COVID-19 patients collapses

70 people trapped inside.

 

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Check that insurance. I have some and my school informed me that virtually none of these travel insurances cover pandemics unless you are traveling and come down with it.

That's correct, my parents learned that after buying it. Fortunately, Celebrity has agreed to cover anything that was related to their canceled cruise. I'll believe it when the check arrives.