nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

[ticapnews]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">America, where it's easier to get a gun than to get a coronavirus test</p>— Jeff Tiedrich (@itsJeffTiedrich) <a href="https://twitter.com/itsJeffTiedrich/status/1235972301314838528?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 6, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

America: the land of gun care and health control.

 

[rufus]

This thread is quite scary

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I think most people aren’t aware of the risk of systemic healthcare failure due to <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/COVID19?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#COVID19</a> because they simply haven’t run the numbers yet. Let’s talk math. 1/n</p>— Liz Specht (@LizSpecht) <a href="https://twitter.com/LizSpecht/status/1236095180459003909?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 7, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

If this balloons like that, its the end of Trump.

All he had to do to get re-elected was handle this proficiently. I know, big ask.

 

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

If this balloons like that, its the end of Trump.

All he had to do to get re-elected was handle this proficiently. I know, big ask.

This should sink pence too, since he’s the czar.

 

[rufus]

This should sink pence too, since he’s the czar.

Oh, Donnie's throwing him under the bus. That's why he was chosen.

None of this is Donnie's fault.

 

[geezer]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

These poor people trying to keep a straight face.... it’s really a wonder nobody has punched the Fake God in the mouth yet with all the disgusting lip flapping he does in public. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Trump: CDC "doctors say how do you know so much about this? Maybe I have a natural ability." <a href="https://t.co/NUSJJL8SQJ">pic.twitter.com/NUSJJL8SQJ</a></p>— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) <a href="https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1236069667657089030?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 6, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[bronconick]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">American Hospital Association "Best Guess Epidemiology" for <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/codiv19?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#codiv19</a> over next 2 months:<br><br>96,000,000 infections<br>4,800,000 hospitalizations<br>1,900,000 ICU admissions<br>480,000 deaths<br><br>vs flu in 2019:<br><br>35,500,000 infections<br>490,600 hospitalizations<br>49,000 ICU admissions<br>34,200 deaths <a href="https://t.co/GDAADwmg4n">pic.twitter.com/GDAADwmg4n</a></p>— Seth Bannon * (@sethbannon) <a href="https://twitter.com/sethbannon/status/1236125593290276864?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 7, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[rufus]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">American Hospital Association "Best Guess Epidemiology" for <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/codiv19?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#codiv19</a> over next 2 months:<br><br>96,000,000 infections<br>4,800,000 hospitalizations<br>1,900,000 ICU admissions<br>480,000 deaths<br><br>vs flu in 2019:<br><br>35,500,000 infections<br>490,600 hospitalizations<br>49,000 ICU admissions<br>34,200 deaths <a href="https://t.co/GDAADwmg4n">pic.twitter.com/GDAADwmg4n</a></p>— Seth Bannon * (@sethbannon) <a href="https://twitter.com/sethbannon/status/1236125593290276864?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 7, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Not Donnie's fault.

 

[Russell Jaslow]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">American Hospital Association "Best Guess Epidemiology" for <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/codiv19?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#codiv19</a> over next 2 months:<br><br>96,000,000 infections<br>4,800,000 hospitalizations<br>1,900,000 ICU admissions<br>480,000 deaths<br><br>vs flu in 2019:<br><br>35,500,000 infections<br>490,600 hospitalizations<br>49,000 ICU admissions<br>34,200 deaths <a href="https://t.co/GDAADwmg4n">pic.twitter.com/GDAADwmg4n</a></p>— Seth Bannon * (@sethbannon) <a href="https://twitter.com/sethbannon/status/1236125593290276864?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 7, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

And that’s only a .5% fatality rate. Think about that...

To me, the biggest difference isn’t the CFR. It’s the fact there is no vaccine, so many more people will get it compared to the flu, and then throw in the higher CFR.

 

[Kepler]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">American Hospital Association "Best Guess Epidemiology" for <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/codiv19?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#codiv19</a> over next 2 months:<br><br>96,000,000 infections<br>4,800,000 hospitalizations<br>1,900,000 ICU admissions<br>480,000 deaths<br><br>vs flu in 2019:<br><br>35,500,000 infections<br>490,600 hospitalizations<br>49,000 ICU admissions<br>34,200 deaths <a href="https://t.co/GDAADwmg4n">pic.twitter.com/GDAADwmg4n</a></p>— Seth Bannon * (@sethbannon) <a href="https://twitter.com/sethbannon/status/1236125593290276864?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 7, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

This seems...

unlikely.

 

[geezer]

This seems...

unlikely.

In what ways?

 

[leswp1]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

Yeah voter fraud is far less prevalent. That said, very few people actually abuse sick time.

And honestly, who ****ing cares? It’s someone who’s not a 1%er bilking a 1%er.

No, you're hired to do your job. They want the best of my ability, they better give me their best compensation. Otherwise, they get sufficient effort to get the job done and no more.
And seriously, who gives a flying fark if someone plays hooky unless it personally affects you in some tangible way. If management cares, they'll put a stop to it. If management doesn't care, why should you?

I don't understand the difference between accruing leave time and PTO. If you're not at work, you put in for it and receive your normal salary. What's the big deal?
I never had "PTO" in the U.S., we accrued time monthly that we could use for whatever we wanted. Here we accrue 20 hours/month, and any unused hours up to 160 are paid back every February. I've received the max payback every year since moving here.
Rube - you're being a d**k just to be a d**k. What other people do that has no bearing on you is none of your concern. If people abuse it they will eventually suffer for it because it will catch up to them and/or they'll never advance their position.

I read this part of the thread with a different take. I was the person who had to write the notes and deal both unscrupulous employers and workers.
-who ever said calling in sick when not sick is rare- don't know where you live but I wish it was where I am from.
-The whole PTO thing also rations when you can take time- you earn as you go so if you get sick and need to be out for a bit in January you haven't accrued much so you end up being unpaid. It currently is only March- even people with generous allowances might not have enough yet
-Really don't get saying what you do is on you/the employers will come down on people that abuse the system. I happened to work for someone who did no such thing. It sucked. The person had no repercussions and routinely got preferential treatment because they were an a hole and the boss didn't want to deal with them not getting their way.
-If someone was out that meant we worked until it was done- adding hours to the day with no extra pay- fatigued people don't do as well fighting off germs and the job they do isn't as good.
-We are totally screwed as far as containment. Period. We can't even get people to believe it is real

I just finished an article that said when testing begins in earnest it’s going to make it appear the virus is spreading like crazy when in reality it’s been that widespread for some time now.

I am curious about how the testing thing is working- they are letting a bunch of different people make up tests- how long before we have failure of false positive and negatives in the effort to pump them out to meet need.

 

[Kepler]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

In what ways?

In the way where the expected death toll is half a million people in the US alone.

Yes, hospitals should prepare for that scenario. But the worst case is not the most probable case, and that is how this data is being presented -- as if the AHA thinks the over/under for the death toll is 480,000.

I'll put my house on the under. Even if I lose I may get lucky and die.

 

[ticapnews]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

And that’s only a .5% fatality rate.

I've got a hunch that number is low.

Meanwhile, how bad is Covid-19? It's like a combination of AIDS and SARS may cause irreversible lung damage to survivors.

“The influence of COVID-19 on the human body is like a combination of SARS and AIDS as it damages both the lungs and immune systems,” Peng Zhiyong, director of the intensive care unit of the Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University in Wuhan, told the Global Times.

“However, since the natural history of COVID-19 pneumonia is yet to be fully explored, it is too early to label these lung changes as irreversible fibrosis,” the researchers wrote.

 

[leswp1]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

We were thinking of going to Amsterdam in end of May for a week because one of our friends has to go for business (company is based there). We were all going to go together. Um not right now it seems. A little digging and with all the stuff we are reading what a potential for a mess.
Her job might cancel the whole thing. Lots of companies are banning travel and going online for meetings.
The Nederlands has a thing on country website about be prepared for cancellation of travel in parts of the country. Not happening yet but not out of the picture. (They actually have a fairly large # of confirmed cases and are a direct route of trade from China- who knew)*.
There is the potential for being trapped not being able to come back- tempting.
Some stuff on a medical site saying there is evidence that the virus is more tolerant of heat/humidity than other viruses that die back. There is some indication that cases may not diminish.
A lot of places are booking and saying you can cancel but really mean you bump the timing with in a year. The other folks could theoretically just move the trip to a diff time. mr les works in college athletics- we have a little window of opportunity- no shifting time frames.

Not a panic type person but not really willing to gamble on thousands of $$ that we might not recoup.

*and Canada lists it as a high terrorism risk site.

 

[geezer]

In the way where the expected death toll is half a million people in the US alone.

But if it’s wrong, some of their math must be off right? I don’t know anything, but my first hunch is that you’re looking at the 30-40% contagion as being absurd?

 

[Kepler]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

I've got a hunch that number is low.

Thank you, Mr. President.

Regardless of what the actual numbers turn out to be, this period of insufficient data for informed predictions is a true Rorschach test. Tell me what your instinct is for the lethality and I'll tell you how you should invest to feel comfortable.

 

[leswp1]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

In the way where the expected death toll is half a million people in the US alone.

Yes, hospitals should prepare for that scenario. But the worst case is not the most probable case, and that is how this data is being presented -- as if the AHA thinks the over/under for the death toll is 480,000.

I'll put my house on the under. Even if I lose I may get lucky and die.

The death toll is not the thing that is concerning. Look at the numbers of people they predict will need ICU or ventilators. That is A LOT and you need people to know what they are doing in those situations- it is specialized. Do we have staff and ventilators to cover that? That is one of the take homes they had from Wuhan. The sheer number of pts with need and no ability to meet it.

 

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

I wouldn’t bet on being allowed into any other countries. It’s gonna get out of control here fast.

I’ve done nothing but work my *** off the last 2.5 years doing my masters program while working and now I won’t be able to graduate, as I picked a program that requires a month abroad in a low resource setting.

 

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Squandered time: How the Trump administration lost control of the coronavirus crisis, by <a href="https://twitter.com/AshleyRParker?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@AshleyRParker</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/yabutaleb7?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@yabutaleb7</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/bylenasun?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@bylenasun</a><a href="https://t.co/nenv2ODFbt">https://t.co/nenv2ODFbt</a></p>— Cathleen Decker (@cathleendecker) <a href="https://twitter.com/cathleendecker/status/1236389474831142913?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 7, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[leswp1]

Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

I wouldn’t bet on being allowed into any other countries. It’s gonna get out of control here fast.

I’ve done nothing but work my *** off the last 2.5 years doing my masters program while working and now I won’t be able to graduate, as I picked a program that requires a month abroad in a low resource setting.

That sucks. There are plenty of places domestically that are on a par with low resource abroad settings. Could they be swayed?