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Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak
Stop linking to the Sun. The board moderator might delete it for being spam.
Stop linking to the Sun. The board moderator might delete it for being spam.
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nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak
- Thread starter dxmnkd316
- Start date
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Handyman
Hug someone you care about...
Amazing you are so into to facts now...speculation didn't seem to bug you back in 2016.
rufus
rock and roller
The cycling race the UAE Tour was cancelled after two days when two team workers tested positive for the virus.
rufus
rock and roller
People having to pay thousands out of pocket for the test. Nope no way, getting some Nyquil at the pharmacy and self-medicating, while still going to work or school every day.
rufus
rock and roller
But they'll still blame it all on the evil Democrats
D
Deutsche Gopher Fan
Guest
I’d say right now risk is low. I guess if California explodes you could see things crop up there
mookie1995
there's a good buck in that racket.
I don’t understand the objection. Surely we all agree that a virus doesn’t care if an R or a D sits in the White House. And all sensible people agree that our national prep and response would be a zillion times better if the FakeTrumpGod didn’t exist. But why does that mean the actual numbers should not be reported? I want the real numbers, and I don’t expect liberals to be the ones complaining about that. Math is math.
dxmnkd316
Lucia Apologist
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak
They very rarely have the denominator right unless it's something obvious like ebola and it's in a well-monitored region. So... all of these numbers are going to miss some, many, or most of the denominator. The number you're looking for is the IFR, infection fatality rate. These are almost always based on educated guesses from what I've read, but not always. Logically, that makes sense because you never can account for every infection.
I'm also guessing you're more likely to miss the denominator low if it's a mild diseases like the common cold. The more severe, the more likely you're going to get it closer to correct as people die or seek treatment.
So you have a couple of options:
1. Assume the CFR is low, which seems the least logical, but it's not out of the question as resources become taxed globally instead of regionally.
2. Assume the CFR is high. Which I'd guess is fairly consistently off compared to the IFR. Even at 2%, it's a huge number compared to the estimates of seasonal flu at 0.01-0.1%, which is probably high because not all cases are reported AND it's moderated by the fact that so many high-risk people are immunized AND we have Tamiflu. So it's not even comparable anyways since we don't have a vaccine for this virus and only experimental treatments. Maybe in 2-3 years the CFR is less than the flu's, maybe significantly, after we start vaccinating our most at-risk populations. On the other hand, 2% is mainly based on areas with "worse" health care systems than the western world. So perhaps as this spreads west, it drops.
3. Assume the CFR is right. In this case, at 2% is a little scary.
What happens if you're wrong:
1. You're over-prepared, probably waste resources, and you might make people question your credibility next time.
2. You risk under-preparing. Probably the worst consequences as resources become scarce, people start dying, and you've still lost credibility.
3. You're probably a little of both, but at least you're closer to being fully prepared.
They very rarely have the denominator right unless it's something obvious like ebola and it's in a well-monitored region. So... all of these numbers are going to miss some, many, or most of the denominator. The number you're looking for is the IFR, infection fatality rate. These are almost always based on educated guesses from what I've read, but not always. Logically, that makes sense because you never can account for every infection.
I'm also guessing you're more likely to miss the denominator low if it's a mild diseases like the common cold. The more severe, the more likely you're going to get it closer to correct as people die or seek treatment.
So you have a couple of options:
1. Assume the CFR is low, which seems the least logical, but it's not out of the question as resources become taxed globally instead of regionally.
2. Assume the CFR is high. Which I'd guess is fairly consistently off compared to the IFR. Even at 2%, it's a huge number compared to the estimates of seasonal flu at 0.01-0.1%, which is probably high because not all cases are reported AND it's moderated by the fact that so many high-risk people are immunized AND we have Tamiflu. So it's not even comparable anyways since we don't have a vaccine for this virus and only experimental treatments. Maybe in 2-3 years the CFR is less than the flu's, maybe significantly, after we start vaccinating our most at-risk populations. On the other hand, 2% is mainly based on areas with "worse" health care systems than the western world. So perhaps as this spreads west, it drops.
3. Assume the CFR is right. In this case, at 2% is a little scary.
What happens if you're wrong:
1. You're over-prepared, probably waste resources, and you might make people question your credibility next time.
2. You risk under-preparing. Probably the worst consequences as resources become scarce, people start dying, and you've still lost credibility.
3. You're probably a little of both, but at least you're closer to being fully prepared.
rufus
rock and roller
Don't worry, your gunz will keep you safe.
I'm sure she will enjoy her time away from you.
rufus
rock and roller
You aren't gonna ever see the real numbers. Pence's job is to make sure you don't.
Otherwise, the markets will continue to spook, Donnie will be angry, and his re-election prospects will take a hit.
People dying? Who gives a ****?
Even though risk is low now, and I understand that this thing will very soon be as common as the flu everywhere, it gave me a bit of the heebie jeebies to find out I’d been staying next door to a Japanese dude who was carrying it in Honolulu, and that I shared an airport with a bunch of Chinese people who had it who were then detained there. It’s been over three weeks though and I’m still kicking.
For all I know, me and 10 million other Americans have already had a mild case. Which would actually be a good thing.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak
The problem is the Stupids and the Poors are different sets which don't overlap that much.
We have to start telling people that washing your hands is how the gubmint give you coronavirus. That would be a direct hit.
However, you make a decent point. Red vs blue state response to public health emergencies is the closest we're going to get to filtering out the unintelligent, as long as the blue states put up walls.
The problem is the Stupids and the Poors are different sets which don't overlap that much.
We have to start telling people that washing your hands is how the gubmint give you coronavirus. That would be a direct hit.
However, you make a decent point. Red vs blue state response to public health emergencies is the closest we're going to get to filtering out the unintelligent, as long as the blue states put up walls.
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unofan
Well-known member
Because he's not looking for the real number, he's looking for the number that will paint the GOP in the best light and concern trolling to get there.
If you use formula X to determine the lethality of all other viruses like the flu, and you use formula X to determine the lethality of this virus, those numbers will provide a decent enough comparison to allow people to judge risk even if there's a systematic bias in formula X. Because to the average person, they don't care what the absolute value is, they care about how the number differs from an everyday infection like the cold or the flu.
It's the exact same thing GOP supporters do with unemployment numbers.
Jimjamesak
Already insane, UAA making it worse
Seriously? It’s not that hard to go “Oh, The S*n. Welp don’t need to click on that...”
I gotcha. I admit that my own reading comprehension on the subject pretty much throws every news story into one of two bins in the back of my mind: “common cold”, or “world war z.” That’s the extent of my discernment.
It’s the same with inflation rate. 10 years ago when groceries and gas went through the roof, our gubmint (and employers) suddenly decided that food and gas aren’t something poor people care about, so let’s drop those from our cost of living calculator. It’s aggravating (when your next raise depends on what the published inflation rate is)
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