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nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

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Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">HAPPY STORY ALERT: <a href="https://twitter.com/UW?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@UW</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/UWVirology?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@UWVirology</a> has developed it's own <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/COVID19?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#COVID19</a> test & expects to be testing 1k-1.5k people per day by the end of the week.<br><br>Preparation began @ end of 2019, *just in case* it reached U.S.<br><br>That decision will save lives.<br><br>Go Dawgs.<a href="https://t.co/FqF7gVQ81x">https://t.co/FqF7gVQ81x</a></p>— Seattle Coronavirus Updates (@Seattle2019nCov) <a href="https://twitter.com/Seattle2019nCov/status/1235359313171898370?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 5, 2020</a></blockquote>
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Thank god for academia and not-stupid people
 
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">HAPPY STORY ALERT: <a href="https://twitter.com/UW?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@UW</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/UWVirology?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@UWVirology</a> has developed it's own <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/COVID19?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#COVID19</a> test & expects to be testing 1k-1.5k people per day by the end of the week.<br><br>Preparation began @ end of 2019, *just in case* it reached U.S.<br><br>That decision will save lives.<br><br>Go Dawgs.<a href="https://t.co/FqF7gVQ81x">https://t.co/FqF7gVQ81x</a></p>— Seattle Coronavirus Updates (@Seattle2019nCov) <a href="https://twitter.com/Seattle2019nCov/status/1235359313171898370?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 5, 2020</a></blockquote>
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Thank god for academia and not-stupid people

I was told Poindexters were the enemy of god fearin' folk. :confused:
 
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

The motel part was funny.

In other news, I have a friend now under quarantine. Self quarantined at home, but has been treating patients with the virus.
 
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

3 in Montgomery County MD (my county) that they got from traveling overseas.

Gov. Hogan has declared a State of Emergency but everyone is to continue their normal routine.
 
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

The local presumptive case tested negative but hte number of folk in self quarantine in the area is rising.

and in other news- people are dam stupid. The number of people posting about conspiracy theories quoting the Dump makes me want to puke- after I invite them to go pray in close proximity over the hoax sick
 
The local presumptive case tested negative but hte number of folk in self quarantine in the area is rising.

and in other news- people are dam stupid. The number of people posting about conspiracy theories quoting the Dump makes me want to puke- after I invite them to go pray in close proximity over the hoax sick

Les

My sister shops at the Nashua Costco and they have a limit of 5 "cases" of TP. They're out of stock as everyone is buying the limit.

That's a year's supply.
 
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

An email blast from a WA epidemiologist who is a friend of a relative:

Hi Friends,

Some of you have started to email and ask about the coronavirus and how our family is doing in the thick of it all in WA state. We live in Snohomish County (where the first case was identified) and Kirkland is right next to us (where most of the deaths have taken place, albeit in elderly already ill individuals). The grocery store shelves are empty in the hand sanitizer, bleach, and toilet paper sections. Schools just started to announce 2 week suspensions of all activities, though the health department is not recommending this yet. [Husband] is putting in the hours and then some at his work place where he specializes in infectious respiratory diseases. Though he usually tackles the flu this time of year, which is still peaking as well, his flu research has been impacted and most of his attention has been diverted to coronavirus. Below is his synopsis of it as of 2 days ago, keeping in mind that there is a lot they don't know about the virus still that might change some of these answers in the future.

Sincerely,

[Wife]


As of Sat, 3/2/20

Dear family (and friends),

We've been getting requests for an epidemiologist to weigh in on all the coronavirus news, so here is some information in Q&A format. Right now, we still have a lot that is unknown about this new virus, but hopefully this helps you navigate some of the uncertainty.

Can you help me understand the different terms being used in the media?
Some of the terms have been changing, but most public health groups seem to be settling on these definitions:
SARS-CoV-2: The name of the new coronavirus
COVID-19: The disease caused by infection with SARS-CoV-2
Pandemic: a new virus/bacteria that spreads worldwide (a term for spread, not severity).

Should I panic? Is this the apocalypse?
No. We might see some disruption to our daily lives (schools and businesses closing temporarily, events cancelled, lots of people sick at home), but this is not something to panic over.

Are you sure? I really feel like panicking.
SARS-CoV-2 is something to take seriously, but not something to take fearfully.

How is SARS-CoV-2 spread?
SARS-CoV-2 is a respiratory virus, similar to influenza. It is mainly spread when an infected person coughs, sneezes, or blows her nose. You can be infected by breathing in droplets created when an infected person coughs or sneezes (generally, this happens if you are close to them, typically <6 feet away). You can also be infected touching something that has SARS-CoV-2 on it, and then touching your eyes, nose, or mouth. For example, if an infected person blows their nose and then opens a door, you could be infected if you touch the doorknob and then put your fingers in your mouth. We don't know specifically how long SARS-CoV-2 can survive on surfaces, but other respiratory viruses typically survive for several hours.

How serious is COVID-19 disease?
Most people infected with SARS-CoV-2 are going to have a "mild" respiratory illness - meaning, they'll be sick, but not so sick they need to see a doctor. Some people will have more severe disease that may put them in the hospital, or even kill them. We don't know right now how likely it is that infected people will be hospitalized or die. Currently, approximately 3% of people with confirmed COVID-19 have died. But this death rate is higher than the true rate will be, because SARS-CoV-2 infections are mostly being detected in people who are more severely ill - people with milder respiratory disease aren't being tested to see if they have SARS-CoV-2 .

To compare this with influenza, approximately 0.1% (1 in 1,000) of people infected with influenza die. So, at the moment, SARS-CoV-2 looks like it is more dangerous than influenza, but not as dangerous as diseases such as ebola (50% death rate), meningitis (10% death rate), or MRSA (5% death rate).

Who is at high risk for severe COVID-19?
Most of the people being hospitalized or dying from COVID-19 are elderly and/or have chronic lung or heart disease.

How can I reduce my risk of being infected?
Strange as it sounds for a respiratory virus, the most effective thing you can do is be careful with your hands: wash them often (soap and water, scrub for 20 seconds, or use alcohol-based hand sanitizer), especially before eating, and try not to touch your nose, mouth, or eyes with unwashed hands.

Face masks are not an effective way to protect yourself. Most people don't know how to properly wear them, and it's easier than you think to contaminate your hands or your face when you take the mask off. Face masks are most useful for people who are already sick, to help trap droplets from coughing or sneezing from spreading to others.

You can also reduce your risk of COVID-19 by avoiding contact with infected people. One way to do this is to avoid unnecessary gatherings of large groups of people, such as a basketball game or a big meeting at work. As of March 2nd 2020, most people in the US do not need to avoid large gatherings, since SARS-CoV-2 is not yet widely circulating in most communities. As SARS-CoV-2 spreads further, your local or state health department may start making recommendations about large gatherings. However, even in the Seattle area, where SARS-CoV-2 is starting to circulate, the health departments are not yet recommending that people consider avoiding big meetings.

[My personal opinion: If you are in the Seattle area and are at high risk due to age or chronic lung/heart disease, you might consider avoiding unnecessary big gatherings. So, go to church, but maybe skip the high school basketball game.]

What are the symptoms of SARS-CoV-2 infection?
Unfortunately, there is nothing unique about SARS-CoV-2 symptoms that distinguishes it from other respiratory viruses. The main symptoms are fever and cough, possibly with shortness of breath.

What should I do if I have these symptoms?
First, stay at home if you can. If at all possible, don't go to work, or school, or other gathering places. This will protect other people from getting infected. Even if you have some other respiratory virus like influenza, your friends and family will thank you for not sharing it with them.

Doctors' offices and emergency department (ED) could start to get overwhelmed by "worried well" - people with mild disease who are scared and are looking for treatment. If you can, contact your doctor by phone rather than going to the doctor's office or ED. This will ease the burden on the medical system. If your doctor has any kind of phone or web consultation, they can tell you how to care for yourself at home, and can also let you what symptoms to watch out for that may need you to go to the doctor or ED. And of course, seek medical care if you get more seriously ill (high fever, severe coughing, difficulty breathing).

They just closed my school / office / church! What's going on?
Businesses, schools, or other gathering sites may be closed in response to SARS-CoV-2 in the coming weeks. There are two reasons for doing this:

1) Early in the pandemic, schools (or workplaces) may close if they have one or more infected students, with the goal of decontaminating the school and then opening again. This is not likely to happen much once SARS-CoV-2 becomes widespread.

2) Gathering sites may close to try and slow down the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. In theory, reducing people's contacts early in a pandemic can delay the time until the peak occurs, and can make the peak last longer but with less intensity, so the medical system and other businesses don't get overwhelmed.

I feel like doing something. Is there anything else I can do?
In the worst-case scenario (not the most likely, but the worst-case), enough people could be sick during the peak of SARS-CoV-2 that some normal services get disrupted. If you don't already have a basic disaster kit (food, water, essential medications, etc) to get you through a couple of days, you could put that together. (And really, you should already have that!)

What are some good sources of information?
I've found that the Washington State Department of Health's page on SARS-CoV-2 is one of the best: https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/Coronavirus

The CDC's page will be accurate, but they are often too afraid of assuming too much that their facts end up being bland to the point of being trivial: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

If you want COVID-19 case counts by country:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
 
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

I was taking the subway this morning and there was a guy wearing a mask. He was also standing and holding onto a pole with a bare hand. Because that’s safe.
 
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

Our company is having a conference call tomorrow that our union will be a part of. In the meantime our president shared this, from a professor at UC-San Diego...

Steps to Take to Prevent Catching COVID-19

Dear Colleagues,

As some of you may recall, when I was a professor of pathology at the University of California San Diego, I was one of the first molecular virologists in the world to work on coronaviruses (the 1970s). I was the first to demonstrate the number of genes the virus contained. Since then, I have kept up with the coronavirus field and its multiple clinical transfers into the human population (e.g., SARS, MERS), from different animal sources. The current projections for its expansion in the US are only probable, due to continued insufficient worldwide data, but it is most likely to be widespread in the US by mid to late March and April. Here is what I have done and the precautions that I take and will take. These are the same precautions I currently use during our influenza seasons, except for the mask and gloves.

1) NO HANDSHAKING! Use a fist bump, slight bow, elbow bump, etc.

2) Use ONLY your knuckle to touch light switches. elevator buttons, etc. Lift the gasoline dispenser with a paper towel or use a disposable glove.

3) Open doors with your closed fist or hip - do not grasp the handle with your hand, unless there is no other way to open the door. Especially important on bathroom and post office/commercial doors.

4) Use disinfectant wipes at the stores when they are available, including wiping the handle and child seat in grocery carts.

5) Wash your hands with soap for 10-20 seconds and/or use a greater than 60% alcohol-based hand sanitizer whenever you return home from ANY activity that involves locations where other people have been.

6) Keep a bottle of sanitizer available at each of your home's entrances AND in your car for use after getting gas or touching other contaminated objects when you can't immediately wash your hands.

7) If possible, cough or sneeze into a disposable tissue and discard. Use your elbow only if you have to. The clothing on your elbow will contain infectious virus that can be passed on for up to a week or more!
What I have stocked in preparation for the pandemic spread to the US:

1) Latex or nitrile latex disposable gloves for use when going shopping, using the gasoline pump, and all other outside activity when you come in contact with contaminated areas. Note: This virus is spread in large droplets by coughing and sneezing. This means that the air will not infect you! BUT all the surfaces where these droplets land are infectious for about a week on average - everything that is associated with infected people will be contaminated and potentially infectious. The virus is on surfaces and you will not be infected unless your unprotected face is directly coughed or sneezed upon. This virus only has cell receptors for lung cells (it only infects your lungs) The only way for the virus to infect you is through your nose or mouth via your hands or an infected cough or sneeze onto or into your nose or mouth.

2) Stock up now with disposable surgical masks and use them to prevent you from touching your nose and/or mouth (We touch our nose/mouth 90X/day without knowing it!). This is the only way this virus can infect you - it is lung-specific. The mask will not prevent the virus in a direct sneeze from getting into your nose or mouth - it is only to keep you from touching your nose or mouth.

3) Stock up now with hand sanitizers and latex/nitrile gloves (get the appropriate sizes for your family). The hand sanitizers must be alcohol-based and greater than 60% alcohol to be effective.

4) Stock up now with zinc lozenges. These lozenges have been proven to be effective in blocking coronavirus (and most other viruses) from multiplying in your throat and nasopharynx. Use as directed several times each day when you begin to feel ANY "cold-like" symptoms beginning. It is best to lie down and let the lozenge dissolve in the back of your throat and nasopharynx. Cold-Eeze lozenges is one brand available, but there are other brands available.
I, as many others do, hope that this pandemic will be reasonably contained, BUT I personally do not think it will be. Humans have never seen this snake-associated virus before and have no internal defense against it. Tremendous worldwide efforts are being made to understand the molecular and clinical virology of this virus. Unbelievable molecular knowledge about the genomics, structure, and virulence of this virus has already been achieved. BUT, there will be NO drugs or vaccines available this year to protect us or limit the infection within us. Only symptomatic support is available. I hope these personal thoughts will be helpful during this potentially catastrophic pandemic. You are welcome to share this email. Good luck to all of us!

--- James Robb, MD FCA.
 
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

Les

My sister shops at the Nashua Costco and they have a limit of 5 "cases" of TP. They're out of stock as everyone is buying the limit.

That's a year's supply.

I guess I went just in time. I went to BJs and there was plenty on Monday. I really needed the TP, not to stock up but because we were almost out.

I started to read the above posts with info and stopped not too far into them. I am saturated. The epidemiologist post saying how they think it is spread is against everything I have seen saying they don't know and do not want to commit to saying anything for sure. This also followed the WHO coming out saying they think money may be a vector.

It struck me just how many different versions of information we have. I am home during the day and try to keep up with the reputable sites. It is impossible. Every post on FB from a reputable page is filled with lobotomized people claiming it is all a hoax, it is Obama's fault and any other nonsense the Orange menace is selling. The level of misinformation and outright lies mixed with people all claiming to be experts is really overwhelming.

I am not as frightened of the virus as I am of the confirmed stupidity of a large portion of the population which will end up with them having a higher proportion of illness and spread. What leader purposefully says things that will assure a die off of their sycophants? How is our country so fvcked up that we have no cohesive response? At the beginning I made a comment about how it was going to be a CF with every State for itself. Sadly showing to be true. Every state has a different action plan They are producing their own tests because the national folks are FUBAR. The WHO is calling for leaders (read the duffus in the WH) to take this seriously and respond intelligently.

No author could make this sh1t up and have it believable.

(and I am reading the sequel to the andromeda strain. :eek: which I started before this all blew up)
 
How long before a USCHOer has confirmed case of Covid 19 ?
Thought it was gonna be me for a bit since I’ve been sick for the last 4-5 days with the symptoms. Just getting back from the hospital and never been happier to have been diagnosed with bronchitis.
 
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

What the **** would I do with 250 rolls of TP? I felt stupid buying an extra 15-roll pack from Costco

Like I told my fiancée a couple of weeks ago. I’m not scared of the virus, I’m scared of (stupid) people. We aren’t trying to outrun the virus, we’re just trying to outsmart the persistent masses. We’re already seeing people hoard insane amounts of ****. Glad we did. We stocked up on basics a couple weeks ago. Plus I have a bunch of masks from work and yard cleanup (thank god for allergies, I bought a bunch of N95s in the fall) if we need to take care of the other.

Several non perishables
Cough meds
Pedialyte
One extra thing of TP
A Costco-sized package of Kleenex
Sanitizer (beat the rush on my employer by the rest of the employees)

Essentially two fold: the first so I can avoid you unwashed masses, the second, if we become sick, we won’t go outside and spread it.
 
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

Thought it was gonna be me for a bit since I’ve been sick for the last 4-5 days with the symptoms. Just getting back from the hospital and never been happier to have been diagnosed with bronchitis.

Bummer, bronchitis is a pain in the ***, but yeah this time I suppose it's the lesser of two evils.
 
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