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NCAA Tourney Team Selection Options
- Thread starter DrunkTrainPolka
- Start date
Fighting Sioux 23
New member
How I would pick the tournament...
Utilize the following criteria for participants: (1) Modified CC Rule (i.e. Regular Season and Conference Tournament champions from B1G, Hockey East, NCHC, and WCHA; and Conference Tournament champions from Atlantic Hockey and ECAC get auto-bids); and (2) Top remaining team from each conference per their KRACH ranking selected as at large.
For the purposes of this analysis, I will presume that for the Modified CC Rule conferences, the 2nd best team (per KRACH) will win the Conference Tournament. In the future, if the same team from a Modified CC Rule conference were to win both conference titles, I would then award that conference 2 at-large bids (based on KRACH). I would also then apply a Modified Clarkson Rule and award the double winner a #1 seed.
That gives us: (selection criteria in parenthesis)
Atlantic Hockey:
AIC (1)
Robert Morris (2)
B1G:
Minnesota (1)
Wisconsin (1)
Michigan (2)
ECAC:
Quinnipiac (1)
Clarkson (2)
Hockey East:
Boston College (1)
Boston University (1)
Massachusetts (2)
NCHC:
North Dakota (1)
St. Cloud State (1)
Minnesota Duluth (2)
WCHA:
Minnesota State (1)
Bemidji State (1)
Bowling Green (2)
I'll give the #1 seeds to the top team from the Modified CC Rule conferences. The #2 seeds will go to the second best teams from the Modified CC Rule conferences. The #3 seeds will be the top teams from the Atlantic Hockey and ECAC conferences, along with the remaining teams from the NCHC and Hockey East (best conferences per recent history). The #4 seeds will be the at-large teams from Atlantic Hockey, B1G, ECAC, and WCHA. That gives us:
#1 Seeds: (alphabetical order at this point)
Boston College
Minnesota
Minnesota State
North Dakota
#2 Seeds:
Bemidji State
Boston University
St. Cloud State
Wisconsin
#3 Seeds:
AIC
Massachusetts
Minnesota Duluth
Quinnipiac
#4 Seeds:
Bowling Green
Clarkson
Michigan
Robert Morris
It is probably almost impossible to truly award a #1 overall seed this year. Really, any of the #1 seeds could make a very good claim for the top spot. Given that, I won't utilize a top overall seed or try to protect such a team.
I will also use the following criteria for the first-round matchups: (1) no inter-conference games (and if possible, try to avoid inter-conference in regional finals); and (2) do best to keep bus teams (I believe the NCAA has previously utilized 400 miles) within a bus-distance regional. Teams with an * are going to be a flight regardless of where they can be placed. Teams with a # can bus to the venue. Teams with a (H) are the host. Given that, here would be me current Bracketology:
Albany Regional:
1. Minnesota* vs. 4. Clarkson#
2. Boston University# vs. 3. Quinnipiac#
Bridgeport Regional:
1. Boston College# vs. 4. Bowling Green*
2. Wisconsin* vs. 3. Massachusetts#
Fargo Regional
1. North Dakota(H) vs. 4. Robert Morris*
2. Bemidji State# vs. 3. Minnesota Duluth#
Loveland Regional:
1. Minnesota State* vs. 4. Michigan*
2. St. Cloud State vs. 3. AIC
All the teams that are going to have to fly, are flying. The only teams that could otherwise bus (SCSU and AIC) are sent to Loveland. SCSU goes to Loveland instead of Fargo because: (a) it maximizes bus teams (otherwise UMD would have to go elsewhere); and (b) avoids a potential inter-conference 1 vs. 2 regional final. AIC gets sent out west (instead of QU or Massachuetts) because...well...no real reason? They are an Atlantic Hockey team? QU and UMass have been to recent Frozen Fours? Regardless, we have to send one of the 3 seeds that could bus out west. I picked AIC because: (a) recent history; (b) they are an Atlantic Hockey team; and (c) a potential "reward" to SCSU for having to fly when they could otherwise bus.
Anyway, that's what I would do. Based on the recent statements by the actual committee, I am going to guess that they will go a different route, but I think this is a good combination of objective + utilizing recent history to determine the field. Just my two cents... : - D
Utilize the following criteria for participants: (1) Modified CC Rule (i.e. Regular Season and Conference Tournament champions from B1G, Hockey East, NCHC, and WCHA; and Conference Tournament champions from Atlantic Hockey and ECAC get auto-bids); and (2) Top remaining team from each conference per their KRACH ranking selected as at large.
For the purposes of this analysis, I will presume that for the Modified CC Rule conferences, the 2nd best team (per KRACH) will win the Conference Tournament. In the future, if the same team from a Modified CC Rule conference were to win both conference titles, I would then award that conference 2 at-large bids (based on KRACH). I would also then apply a Modified Clarkson Rule and award the double winner a #1 seed.
That gives us: (selection criteria in parenthesis)
Atlantic Hockey:
AIC (1)
Robert Morris (2)
B1G:
Minnesota (1)
Wisconsin (1)
Michigan (2)
ECAC:
Quinnipiac (1)
Clarkson (2)
Hockey East:
Boston College (1)
Boston University (1)
Massachusetts (2)
NCHC:
North Dakota (1)
St. Cloud State (1)
Minnesota Duluth (2)
WCHA:
Minnesota State (1)
Bemidji State (1)
Bowling Green (2)
I'll give the #1 seeds to the top team from the Modified CC Rule conferences. The #2 seeds will go to the second best teams from the Modified CC Rule conferences. The #3 seeds will be the top teams from the Atlantic Hockey and ECAC conferences, along with the remaining teams from the NCHC and Hockey East (best conferences per recent history). The #4 seeds will be the at-large teams from Atlantic Hockey, B1G, ECAC, and WCHA. That gives us:
#1 Seeds: (alphabetical order at this point)
Boston College
Minnesota
Minnesota State
North Dakota
#2 Seeds:
Bemidji State
Boston University
St. Cloud State
Wisconsin
#3 Seeds:
AIC
Massachusetts
Minnesota Duluth
Quinnipiac
#4 Seeds:
Bowling Green
Clarkson
Michigan
Robert Morris
It is probably almost impossible to truly award a #1 overall seed this year. Really, any of the #1 seeds could make a very good claim for the top spot. Given that, I won't utilize a top overall seed or try to protect such a team.
I will also use the following criteria for the first-round matchups: (1) no inter-conference games (and if possible, try to avoid inter-conference in regional finals); and (2) do best to keep bus teams (I believe the NCAA has previously utilized 400 miles) within a bus-distance regional. Teams with an * are going to be a flight regardless of where they can be placed. Teams with a # can bus to the venue. Teams with a (H) are the host. Given that, here would be me current Bracketology:
Albany Regional:
1. Minnesota* vs. 4. Clarkson#
2. Boston University# vs. 3. Quinnipiac#
Bridgeport Regional:
1. Boston College# vs. 4. Bowling Green*
2. Wisconsin* vs. 3. Massachusetts#
Fargo Regional
1. North Dakota(H) vs. 4. Robert Morris*
2. Bemidji State# vs. 3. Minnesota Duluth#
Loveland Regional:
1. Minnesota State* vs. 4. Michigan*
2. St. Cloud State vs. 3. AIC
All the teams that are going to have to fly, are flying. The only teams that could otherwise bus (SCSU and AIC) are sent to Loveland. SCSU goes to Loveland instead of Fargo because: (a) it maximizes bus teams (otherwise UMD would have to go elsewhere); and (b) avoids a potential inter-conference 1 vs. 2 regional final. AIC gets sent out west (instead of QU or Massachuetts) because...well...no real reason? They are an Atlantic Hockey team? QU and UMass have been to recent Frozen Fours? Regardless, we have to send one of the 3 seeds that could bus out west. I picked AIC because: (a) recent history; (b) they are an Atlantic Hockey team; and (c) a potential "reward" to SCSU for having to fly when they could otherwise bus.
Anyway, that's what I would do. Based on the recent statements by the actual committee, I am going to guess that they will go a different route, but I think this is a good combination of objective + utilizing recent history to determine the field. Just my two cents... : - D
manurespreader
Still upright
Yep. Didn't PC get beat btw, 8-1 last week or some such? Great team they got there.
manurespreader
Still upright
I could see 3 from HE but BU is questionable to me. Especially after losing to Merrimack.
Who said they were great? And if you wanna base a season on that one game thankfully you're not on the committee. Let's see it. What is your tournament field with only two HE teams?
Fighting Sioux 23
New member
I guess the entire NCHC; 2 each from the B1G, WCHA, and HE; and then auto-bids from Atlantic Hockey and ECAC? Certainly HE should not have any fewer teams than the B1G and WCHA. ; )
This is interesting, as it led me to do some history
For example, in 2019-20, the breakdown of the final PWR was:
NCHC: 3
WCHA: 2
ECAC: 3
HE: 4
B10: 3
Ind: 1
18-19:
NCHC: 3
WCHA: 2
ECAC: 4
HE: 3
B10: 3
Ind: 1
17-18:
NCHC: 4
WCHA: 1
ECAC: 2
HE: 4
B10: 5 (Counts Notre Dame)
AHA: 0
16-17:
NCHC: 4
WCHA: 0
ECAC: 3
HE: 4
B10: 4 (Counts Notre Dame)
AHA: 1
15-16:
NCHC: 4
WCHA: 1
ECAC: 4
HE: 5
B10: 2
I'll stop there.
Now, my argument WAS going to be that the WCHA has fielded 1 team by the final PWR standings in most years, and there is no real reason to all of a sudden believe that, as a conference, it is now on par with all the other conferences.
However, I see that, in the last 2 years, it was actually true that 2 teams would have made the field by regular season merit.
That causes me to re-think my argument a little.
Let me put it this way:
By conference.....
NCHC 3 or 4 teams
WCHA: 2 teams
B10: 3 teams
AHA: 1 team, maybe 2 if the committees look highly on AIC and they don't win the tourney
HE: 3 or 4 teams
ECAC: 1 or 2 teams
These would follow historical averages, with allowance for the ECAC only having 4 teams this year:
Now the teams:
IMO, in right now:
NCHC: only 1 - UND
WCHA: only 1 - Mankato
B10: 2 - Minn and Wisc
AHA: maybe AIC
HE: BC, UMass
ECAC: Quinnipiac
First tier: Michigan, UMD
Second tier: SCSU, Bemidji, BU
Third tier: UNO, Providence
Fourth tier: Northeastern, Clarkson, Bowling Green
JohnsonsJerseys
Michigan Tech Fan
Q: Are ANY of those exact teams that earned spots and played in those past NCAA tourney fields eligible for the 2020-21 NCAA hockey tourney?
A: No. Then their results mean nothing in picking the 2020-21 NCAA tourney field.
Why not just look and see who had the best curling teams over those years and use those results to pick the hockey field? Heck throw in women's basketball or water polo historical results as well. It would be just as meaningful. The conferences knew this would be the risk of not scheduling games with other conferences. The Big and NCHC wanted to stay in their bubbles and now this is the result - they have no data to prove their case at the end of the season.
If games were assigned results based on historical performance, there would be no reason for these games to have taken place:
Holy Cross vs Gophers
AIC vs St Cloud
RIT vs Denver
RIT vs Mankato
Bemidji vs Notre Dame
Air Force vs Michigan
And the list goes on...
In a season with very little play between conferences, there is NO reason for ANY conference to have four teams in a field of 16 because there is NO data from 2020-21 season play to support it. All we have is comparisons WITHIN conferences and a whole lot of personal opinions about all the rest. Each conference brings their best two or three teams and let the chips fall where they may. If you can't even finish in the top three of your own conference you don't deserve a spot in the 2020-21 NCAA tourney field. Sorry, this year is not every other year.
Although I see your point, I find it very difficult to believe that the NCAA committee would follow the same line of thinking.
So, to put it in a sound bite.....This year may not be every other year, but the NCAA Hockey tournament is going to be like every other NCAA hockey tournament.
It's going to have 16 teams. 4 Regionals. And, a final 4.
The idea that the committee is going to automatically choose 2 teams from AHA and 2 teams from WCHA, simply because there is little inter conference play, seems to me to be a dream or a fantasy.
It seems much more likely to me, since we know that the committee has already chosen two other committees to help them with their job, that the committee is going to do a deep dive of some kind in its analysis of all the teams who could be considered "bubble."
If the committee were going to simply choose "Top 2 from each conference plus 4 others", then they wouldn't need all that machinery.
If anything, the lack of non league games has probably helped the WCHA. As well as the ECAC only having 4 teams. Look around at bubble teams. I think the committee will end up taking at least 3 from WCHA based on W/L records alone. Maybe even 4 depending on how bubble teams do down the stretch. Borderline teams like NU, PC and even a team like Notre Dame...could all very well be in better position if there were non league games. How dare I consider historical data when making that assertion but whatever.
manurespreader
Still upright
Ok JD, sigh, so here is my take based on a somewhat different look than you maybe. I'll put it as which teams have earned their way in already and which have work to do. For instance, Duluth has work to do, BU has work to do. Also some teams like NU or MTU might get in by way of winning the conf tournament and that would also mean AH might easily get two in.
But based on the eye test,
Teams a possible 1 seed. Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Minnesota State, UND,
A 2 seed. BC, UMass, St. Cloud, Maybe Omaha.
A 3 seed. Qpac, BGSU,
A 4 seed. BU(WTD), Duluth(WTD), Bemidji (WTD), AIC, . Also some teams are playing better lately such as Wisconsin and others losing a lot lately. I think that's a factor too.
But based on the eye test,
Teams a possible 1 seed. Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Minnesota State, UND,
A 2 seed. BC, UMass, St. Cloud, Maybe Omaha.
A 3 seed. Qpac, BGSU,
A 4 seed. BU(WTD), Duluth(WTD), Bemidji (WTD), AIC, . Also some teams are playing better lately such as Wisconsin and others losing a lot lately. I think that's a factor too.
I guess one question is, "what is the committee attempting to accomplish?" If the answer is to just get a broad cross section of teams and leagues, sure they'll spread out the bids. If the answer is to come up with the best 16 teams, subject to autobids, then I don't think JJ is going to get his wish.
As an example, if the Committee were asked to compare RMU, at 14-7-0 with Omaha, at 13-9-1, I don't see them concluding that RMU is the better team, and therefore more worthy of a bid. Even though there has been no interconference play that tells us, mathematically, that Omaha is better, the committee will understand that four of Omaha's losses have come against a team considered as one of the best in college hockey, that Omaha has played seven different teams that probably have what, 30+ total NHL draft picks among them?
The reality of it is this. There is more hockey talent in certain leagues than in others. That's why teams from certain leagues have had more success in the tourney. While talent doesn't always translate into wins, if I were a betting man....
BC is going to be a #1 seed, in my opinion, unless either UMass or BU goes on a big run. I think it's very, very unlikely Michigan gets a #1 seed. Right now it's BC, Minnesota, Minnesota State and UND. I don't see that changing much, unless Minnesota really falters down the stretch and Wisconsin wins out, or, like I said, BU or UMass somehow supplant BC.
I think I would disagree slightly with the list of #1s. I think that UND and BC are basically guaranteed a top seed (especially in BC's case with the idea of limiting travel). Then, I think you consider Minn, Wisc and Mankato all 3. Right now, it would be Minn and Mankato. However, Mankato has a few games left, and every loss risks their spot. I would think that either winning the remaining RS games and going to the Tournament Final would be enough, as would winning the tourney. I agree Minnesota has a good sized lead over Wisconsin. Very likely, Minn will be the RS champ, which means only 2 games to play in the tourney. It will take, probably, faltering this weekend, plus Wisconsin winning the B10 tourney for UW to slide ahead of the Gophers. I can't see BU or UMass getting a #1 at this point.
The more interesting, of course, is at the bottom. One would think these would be basically shoe-ins....
BC, BU
AIC
Quinnipiac
Minnesota, Wisconsin
NoDak
Mankato
Since there are at most 6 upsets in the tourneys, a couple other sure entries need to be added here...
I think that the next set of teams, from which the 2 sure entries would be taken, would be:
UMass, Michigan, St Cloud, Duluth......and, the choice of which would be the #9 and #10 teams depends on further results.
In any case, those teams bring us to 12.
Next level, which contains teams which could still arrive without winning their tourney:
Providence (having had a good weekend against Northeastern, and a more difficult schedule), Omaha, Clarkson and potentially the WCHA #2. Northeastern might fall into this group as well, but would not get in before PC I don't believe.
Beyond these, I think you would be looking at needing to win a tourney. And, every upset in a tourney cuts one more team from the last group.
I think these teams are in, barring something completely crazy:
AHA: Autobid
B1G: Minnesota, Wisconsin
ECAC: QU
HE: BC, UMass, BU
NCHC: UND, UMD, SCSU
WCHA: MSU
That's 11 teams. If you want my guess for the other five, my guess is two more from the WCHA group that includes BG, BSU, LSSU and MTU; Possibly one from the NCHC (Omaha, or an upset tourney winner from the bottom 4); with the last two a complete toss up. Could be Michigan. Will probably be one from HE. Could be Clarkson. Could be AIC if they don't win the autobid. Could be a team like Michigan, or an upset winner in the B1G.
I think there is a decent chance the NCHC is going to only end up with three bids this year. It's not because I think the conference is down or anything, but it's kind of working out that way.
CC and Miami can only make it through the autobid. WMU and Denver have to make it all the way to the tourney championship game to even qualify, since anything short of that is a sub .500 record (and that assumes Denver sweeps CC this weekend.)
So basically, that really only leaves four teams with a chance at an at large bid. If Omaha loses its single to North Dakota, in Grand Forks, this weekend, then loses the first round of the playoffs (Denver or WMU, probably Denver), Omaha will be 13-11-1, with five losses in a row coming into the tourney, and in my opinion, they'll be out.
On the other hand, a win in Grand Forks this weekend, and a win in the first game of the playoffs will put them in, imho.
Michigan is kind of the same way. If they drop two in Minneapolis this weekend, then lose their first round game, they are something like 13-11-1, and I don't think they're in.
Those two scenarios could free up bids for teams like Clarkson, a second AHA team, some teams from HE, or more from the WCHA.